Reasonable Progress: Chiricahua NM & Wilderness Area

1. Reasonable Progress:Chiricahua NM & Wilderness Area Implementation Workgroup Meeting San Diego, California April 17 – 19, 2007

2. Chiricahua NM & Wilderness Area • Overview of Chiricahua NM & WA • Monitoring/Baseline Conditions • Annual Average • 20% Worst Visibility Days • Emissions & Source Apportionment • Sources • Species • Reasonable Progress/Modeling • Model Performance • Modeling Results • Visibility Projections • Summary

3. Arizona Class One Areas Source: http://www.epa.gov/region09/air/maps/az_clss1.html

4. Chiricahua NM & Wilderness Area 2km Terrain Map 20km Terrain Map The Chiricahua Wilderness is located south of the Chiricahua National Monument. The IMRPOVE monitor is located west of the National Monument. Source: WRAP Causes of Haze Website (http://coha.dri.edu)

5. Glide Slope Annual Average (in dv) Baseline Conditions: 8.75 dv Natural Conditions: 4.0 dv

6. Annual Light Extinction Results show particle extinction. The baseline extinction is 15.44 Mm -1.

7. Glide Slope for 20% Worst Days (in dv) Baseline = 13.43 dv; Natural Conditions = 7.2 dv

8. Baseline Extinction Budget Visibility impairment on worst days is mostly attributed to sulfates, coarse mass, fine soil, and organic carbon.

9. Baseline Species – Time Series This shows extinction for all species for each year of the baseline period.

10. Baseline Worst 20% Light Extinction

11. Average 20% Worst Day Composition(baseline ’00 – ‘04) Light Extinction (Mm -1) Source: Chart made from spreadsheet posted at: WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Monitoring >> Composition

12. Average 20% Best Day Composition (baseline ’00 – ’04) Light Extinction (Mm -1) Source: Chart made from spreadsheet posted at: WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Monitoring >> Composition

13. Species Glide Slope – Worst 20% This shows the baseline and glide slope by species.

14. Species Trends and URP Glide Slope (Worst Days)

15. Emissions & Source Apportionment

16. Upwind Residence Time on 20% Worst Visibility Days (2000-04) Highest values are located in southern Arizona, west Sonora, Baja California Norte, and north Chihuahua.

17. Sources Located Near Chiricahua • Point Sources • Douglas Power Plant; Douglas, AZ • Apache Station (AEPCO); Wilcox, AZ • Apache Nitrogen; St. David, AZ • Chemical Lime; Paul Spur, AZ • Area Sources • Vehicle Emissions: highways, unpaved roads, recreational areas • Other Sources • Naco Dump: 40 miles south of wilderness area near Naco, Mexico

18. Source Apportionment for Sulfate (SO4) The left column shows 2002 (plan02c) and the right column shows 2018 (base18b) for each state and region. PSAT results indicate that sources in Arizona, Mexico, CENRAP, EUS, and pacific off-shore are the largest contributors.

19. Weighted Emissions Potential – SO4

20. Weighted Emissions Potential – SO4

21. Arizona SOx Emissions Source: Saguaro Reasonable Progress presentation on 1/22/07, L. Alter

22. Source Apportionment for Nitrate (NO3) The left column shows 2002 (plan02c) and the right column shows 2018 (base 18b) for each state and region. The largest contributors of nitrate are Arizona and California. Sources from CENRAP, Mexico, New Mexico, and pacific off-shore are also likely to contribute to nitrate.

23. Weighted Emissions Potential – NO3

24. Weighted Emissions Potential – NO3

25. Arizona NOx Emissions Source: Saguaro Reasonable Progress presentation on 1/22/07, L. Alter

26. Weighted Emissions Potential – Organic Carbon (OMC)

27. Weighted Emissions Potential – OMC

28. Arizona OC Emissions Source: Saguaro Reasonable Progress presentation on 1/22/07, L. Alter

29. Weighted Emissions Potential – Elemental Carbon (EC)

30. Weighted Emissions Potential - EC

31. Weighted Emissions Potential – Fine Soil (Soil)

32. Weighted Emissions Potential - Soil

33. Weighted Emissions Potential – Coarse Particulate Matter (CM)

34. Weighted Emissions Potential – CM

35. Modeling

36. Model Performance The left points are modeled data and the right points are from IMPROVE.

37. Visibility Modeling Results

38. Visibility Projections – NO3 This shows baseline conditions, glide slope, and projected 2018 light extinction.

39. Visibility Projections – SO4 This shows baseline conditions, glide slope, and projected 2018 light extinction.

40. Visibility Projections - OMC This shows baseline conditions, glide slope, and projected 2018 light extinction.

41. Visibility Projections - EC This shows baseline conditions, glide slope, and projected 2018 light extinction.

42. Visibility Projections – CM This shows baseline conditions, glide slope, and projected 2018 light extinction.

43. Visibility Projections – Soil This shows baseline conditions, glide slope, and projected 2018 light extinction.

44. Summary • Largest Contributors to Visibility Impairment in Chiricahua • Sulfates • Coarse Mass, Fine Soil • Organic Carbon

45. Continuing Progress • Continuing Analysis of Chiricahua • Additional WRAP Products (e.g. CoDust) • Local Emission Inventories (e.g. Douglas/Agua Prieta) • Nonattainment/Maintenance Area Plans • Local analysis (FLM, Tribal) • Impact from BART and other non-BART • Microscale Modeling????