Simplification Tactics

1. Amirkabir University of TechnologyComputer Engineering & Information Technology Department Simplification Tactics Dr. Saeed Shiry

2. Introduction • There is a clear truism in George Box’s 1979 statement that “all models are • wrong, some models are useful.” We attempt to model reality to see how • changes can affect it – hopefully for the better. But models of reality are, by • their very nature, incomplete depictions and tend to be misleading. Still worse • can be models and associated solutions that faithfully attempt to do justice • to reality by incorporating many facets of reality into their structures. Unfortunately, • a common result is an overemphasis of certain issues in decision • making that, although perhaps interesting, are far less practically relevant to • effective decisions than other issues that haven’t been taken into account. • Ultimately, any approach to decision making is a balancing act between • an appropriate accounting of relevant reality (i.e., the objectives, decision • variables, and constraints as discussed in Chapter 4) and not getting bogged • down in details that only obscure or mislead.When we attempt to rationalize • all of the factors that might go into a decision-making process as well as • possible solutions that might be practically viable, we often “satisfice,” a term • used to describe making a decision about a set of alternatives that respects • the limitations of human time and knowledge.

3. Heuristics in Decision-Making Practice