Climate Change and Kansas

1. Climate Change and Kansas Johannes Feddema Department of Geography The University of Kansas

2. Outline Kansas and Climate Change • Climate science • Basics of the climate system • Climate trends in the past • Climate projections • Climate impacts • Background on Kansas climate • Kansas climate over the last century • Potential Kansas climate impacts

3. CLIMATE SCIENCE

4. Climate Change Science What do we need to know? Is the climate changing Observations Reference conditions Climate change attribution What is causing it to change Climate projections What does theory tell us about the future

5. Global Climate Observing System – Early days Thermoscope Thermometer Greeks (density and energy) 11th Century Avicenna 15?? -1603 Galileo (thermoscope) 1613 – Segredo/Santorio (thermometer)? 1714 Fahrenheit (Mercury) 1742 Celsius (Centigrade Scale) 1853 1st Meteorological Conference Sources: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermometer http://inventors.about.com/b/2004/11/16/the-history-behind-the-thermometer.htm www.nature.com http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Rapids/7592/Stevenson.jpg

6. Milestones of the WMO • 1853 First International Meteorological Conference (standardization of instruments) • 1873 WMO's predecessor, the International Meteorological Organization (IMO) established • 1882 Launch of the First International Polar Year 1882-1883 • 1932 Launch of the second International Polar Year 1932-1933 • 1951 WMO established as a specialized agency of the United Nations • 1957 Launch of International Geophysical Year 1957-1958 • Global Ozone Observing System set up • 1963 World Weather Watch launched • 1976 WMO conductsfirst international assessment of the state of global ozone • 1979 First World Climate Conference held which led to the establishment of the World Climate Programme • 1985 Vienna Convention on the Protection of the Ozone Layer • 1987 Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer • 1988 WMO/UNEP Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change established • 1989 Global Atmosphere Watch established to monitor atmospheric composition • WMO and UNEP initiate the process leading to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change • 1990 Second World Climate Conference initiates the Global Climate Observing System • First Assessment Report of the IPCC • 1991 WMO/UNEP begin process which led to negotiation of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change • 1992 UN Conference on Environment and Development (the 'Earth Summit') leads to Agenda 21 • 1995Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change • El Nino/Southern Oscillation warm episode and severe weather events across the world • 1998 Kyoto Conference establishes timetable for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions • 2001 Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change • 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development (Johannesburg, South Africa) • 2007 Bali Conference • Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change • IPCC awarded Nobel Prize Source WMO

7. THE CLIMATE SYSTEM

8. What is Climate Science What is Modern Climate Science • Understanding of the movement of energy into, through, and out of the Earth System • Based on physics through the processes of: • Electromagnetic radiation • Convective heating of the Atmosphere (sensible heat) • Convective transport of water vapor

9. Global Average Energy Balance Top of Atmosphere Energy Balance: 342 – 107 = 235 107 342 235 Incoming Solar Radiation Shortwave z Outgoing Long-wave Radiation Reflected Shortwave radiation Atmosphere Energy Balance: 67 + 350 + 24 + 78 = 324 + 165 + 30 Reflected Shortwave radiation by Clouds Aerosols and Gases Long-wave Radiation from Clouds Long-wave Radiation Atmospheric Window Long-wave Radiation from Atmosphere 30 165 Absorbed Shortwave radiation by Atmosphere 40 77 Latent Heat 67 350 Longwave Radiation Absorbed by Atmosphere Sensible Heat Long-wave Radiation Emitted by Atmosphere Reflected Shortwave radiation by Surface 78 24 30 Longwave Radiation Emmited by Surface 324 168 Evapo- transpiration 390 Thermal heating Absorbed Shortwave radiation by Surface Conduction 0 Surface Energy Balance: 168 = 390 – 324 + 24 + 78

10. De/Re-forestation Background: Human Climate Interactions Natural and human impacts on the climate system Solar Variation Natural Vegetation? Atmospheric Composition Agriculture Soil Degradation Urban Grazing

11. Climate Models

12. Climate Models (300 km) (150 km) (75) km (37 km)

13. Timeline of Climate Model Development

14. Why are climate Scientists concerned? What is the big deal with Global Warming? We are observing human induced changes in the system that we know to affect climate. Atmospheric composition (CO2, Methane, aerosols, etc.) Land cover change that affects CO2 and energy partitioning We are seeing changes in the climate and related systems that suggest we are in a transition Temperature records Sea ice records Biological systems

15. HISTORICAL FORCINGS

16. Climate Forcing (Anthropogenic) Source: World Resources 2000-2001 Time Magazine – 9 April 2001

17. So what are we worried about? Future? Rate – Depends on: response time? feed backs? Present 2005 Rate = +0.7 ºC 100yrs 0.7 ºC 100 years 1958 1900 1900 Industrial revolution begins Humans develop as species Rate ≈ +0.036 ºC 100yrs { 5-8 ºC 18,000 years Ice Age Domestication of plants and animals Last Glacial Maximum

18. Relationships between GHGs and Temperature

19. Feedback cycles and deglaciation

20. What about the distant past? Sources Globalwarmingart.com www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Phanerozoic_Carbon_Dioxide_png Bergman etaal (2004). American Journal of Science301: 182-204.  Berner and Kothavala (2001). American Journal of Science304: 397–437.  Gradstein, FM and JG Ogg (1996). Episodes19: 3-5.  Gradsteinet al. (2005). A geologic time scale 2004. Camb. Univ. Press Rothman (2001) Proc. of the Nat. Academy of Sciences99 (7): 4167-4171.  Royer, et al. (2004) GSA Today www.scotese.com But it was a different world Extinction of Dinosaurs Permian Crash Terrestrial plants

21. WHAT EXACTLY DOES CO2 DO?

22. Effects of CO2 on Energy Balance Sources: Globalwarmingart.com www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Atmospheric_Transmission_png Gordley et al. (1994). J. .Quant. Spect. & Rad. Trans. 52 (5).  Kiehl and Trenberth (1997) Bull. Am. Meteor. Assoc. 78.  Lashof (1989). Climatic Change 14 (3): 213-242.  Rothman et al. (2004). J. .Quant. Spect. & Rad. Trans. 96.  Peixoto and Oort (1992). Physics of Climate. Springer

23. Global Average Energy Balance Top of Atmosphere Energy Balance: 342 – 107 = 235 107 342 235 234 235 Incoming Solar Radiation Shortwave z Outgoing Long-wave Radiation Atmosphere Energy Balance: 67 + 350 + 24 + 78 = 324 + 165 + 30 Reflected Shortwave radiation 352 79 326 166 Reflected Shortwave radiation by Clouds Aerosols and Gases Long-wave Radiation from Clouds Long-wave Radiation Atmospheric Window Long-wave Radiation from Atmosphere 30 165 Absorbed Shortwave radiation by Atmosphere 40 39 166 77 Latent Heat 67 1 350 Longwave Radiation Absorbed by Atmosphere 351 2 352 Sensible Heat Long-wave Radiation Emitted by Atmosphere Reflected Shortwave radiation by Surface 78 24 79 30 Longwave Radiation Emmited by Surface 324 326 168 Evapo- transpiration 390 Thermal heating 391 Absorbed Shortwave radiation by Surface 79 326 391 Conduction 0 Surface Energy Balance: 168 – 324 = 390 + 24 + 78 + 0

24. Recent Climate Trends

25. Global temperature trends (the instrumental record) Source: IPCC 2007

26. US temperature record

27. Global precipitation trends (the instrumental record)

28. US precipitation record

29. Tricks from our skeptical friends Blog: Science Temperature Monitors Report Widescale Global CoolingMichael Asher (Blog) - February 26, 2008 12:55 PM World Temperatures according to the Hadley Center for Climate Prediction. Note the steep drop over the last year. Twelve-month long drop in world temperatures wipes out a century of warmingOver the past year, anecdotal evidence for a cooling planet has exploded. China has its coldest winter in 100 years. Baghdad sees its first snow in all recorded history. North America has the most snowcover in 50 years, with places like Wisconsin the highest since record-keeping began. Record levels of Antarctic sea ice, record cold in Minnesota, Texas, Florida, Mexico, Australia, Iran, Greece, South Africa, Greenland, Argentina, Chile -- the list goes on and on. No more than anecdotal evidence, to be sure. But now, that evidence has been supplanted by hard scientific fact. All four major global temperature tracking outlets (Hadley, NASA's GISS, UAH, RSS) have released updated data. All show that over the past year, global temperatures have dropped precipitously. A compiled list of all the sources can be seen here.  The total amount of cooling ranges from 0.65C up to 0.75C -- a value large enough to wipe out most of the warming recorded over the past 100 years. All in one year's time. For all four sources, it's the single fastest temperature change ever recorded, either up or down. Sources: http://www.dailytech.com/Temperature+Monitors+Report+Worldwide+Global+Cooling/article10866.htm

30. WHAT ABOUT SOLAR ACTIVITY?

31. Natural Forcing over the last decades Sources: Globalwarmingart.com

32. Sources: Globawarmingart.com www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Sunspot_Numbers_png Hoyt and Schatten (1998a) Solar Physics179: 189-219.  Hoyt, and Schatten (1998b) Solar Physics181: 491-512.  Stott et al. (2003) Journal of Climate 16: 4079-4093. 

33. Long term Solar and Temperature trends Sources: Globalwarmingart.com

34. USING MODELS TO GIVE US ANSWERS

36. Climate Simulation: How good are the models?

37. Recent Climate Variable Trends: Observations Sources: Globawarmingart.com www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Short_Instrumental_Temperature_Record_png Brohan, et al. (2006) J. Geophaysical Research 111: D12106 Luo etal. (2002 J Clim 15: 2806-2820 Sources: Globawarmingart.com www.globalwarmingart.com/wiki/Image:Solar_Cycle_Variations_png Irradiance:/www.pmodwrc.ch/pmod.php?topic=tsi/composite/SolarConstant International sunspot number:/www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/SOLAR/ftpsunspotnumber.html Flare index: www.koeri.boun.edu.tr/astronomy/readme.html 10.7cm radio flux: www.drao-ofr.hia-iha.nrc-cnrc.gc.ca/icarus/www/sol_home.shtml

38. Climate Simulation: Ocean Response T. Barnett and D. Pierce of SIO

39. Role of the IPCC- Coordination TSU = Technical Support Unit

41. IPCC Report on Anthropogenic Climate Impacts

42. IPCC – Publishing and conveying knowledge

43. What about the future? Keven Trenberth, NCAR

44. IPCC -- Coordinating research efforts • IPCC creates infrastructure to coordinate experiments between groups • Standard emissions scenarios • Standard protocols

45. Climate projections: What is to come? Raupach et al., PNAS, 2007

46. Climate projections: Global Temperature Anomalies relative to 1980-99 IPCC Ch. 10, Fig. 10.4, TS-32 Climate change experiments from 16 groups (11 countries) and 23 models collected at PCMDI (over 31 terabytes of model data) Committed warming averages 0.1°C per decade for the first two decades of the 21st century; across all scenarios, the average warming is 0.2°C per decade for that time period (recent observed trend 0.2°Cper decade)

47. Abrupt Transitions in the Summer Sea Ice Impacts of Climate Change – Sea Ice Extent Observed Alaska Russia Russia Alaska Greenland Canada Scandinavia Greenland Simulated “Abrupt” transition • Gradual forcing results in abrupt Sept ice decrease • Extent decreases from 70 to 20% coverage in 10 years. Observations Simulated 5-year running mean Sources NSIDC NCAR

48. Kansas Historical Records

49. Background on Kansas Climate

50. Background on Kansas Climate