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Fast forward your thinking to the Future

Fast forward your thinking to the Future. Presented by: Meirion Thomas Observatory of Innovation Cardiff Business School. Why do we need to do futures?. Where there is no vision, the people perish Proverbs 29:18. Why do we need to do futures?.

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Fast forward your thinking to the Future

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  1. Fastforwardyourthinkingto theFuture Presented by: Meirion Thomas Observatory of Innovation Cardiff Business School

  2. Why do we need to do futures? Where there is no vision, the people perish Proverbs 29:18

  3. Why do we need to do futures? For knowing afar of the evils that are brewing they are easily cured. But, when for want of such knowledge, they are allowed to grow until everyone can recognize them, there is no longer any remedy to be found. Machiavelli

  4. Why do we need to do futures? To create the future, you must first of all be capable of imagining it. Gary Hamel

  5. Why do we need to do futures? Those who look only to the past or present are certain to miss the future John F. Kennedy.

  6. Why do we need to do futures? The future will be better tomorrow. Dan Quayle

  7. Is the future always about blue skies? We already have the statistics for the future: the growth percentages of pollution, overpopulation, desertification. The future is already in place. Günther Grass

  8. Is the future always about blue skies? Don't worry Darlin', now baby don't you fretWe're livin' in the future and none of this has happened yet Bruce Springsteen

  9. Is the future always about blue skies? I have seen the future and it doesn't work. Robert Fulford

  10. Is the future always about blue skies? The future ain't what it used to be. Yogi Berra

  11. The Future – 2010 etc?? We are living in the futureI'll tell you how I knowI read it in the paperFifteen years ago. We're all driving rocket shipsAnd talking with our mindsAnd wearing turquoise jewelleryAnd standing in soup linesJohn Prine

  12. The Future – 2010 etc??? There is a world market for about 5 computers Thomas J Watson, IBM

  13. What are we going to try to cover? • What is futures? - & what is it not? • Why use futures? • Becoming literate in futures • Trying out a few tools • How to tell stories in futures.

  14. Don’t confuse Futures with Foresight !! Imagination Prediction Fictions Facts What if..? What will..? Questions Answers

  15. For business Gain an appreciation of risk and opportunities Underpin a corporate strategy Inform investment decisions Stimulate innovation …. For governments Inform policy making Early warning Identify winners & losers Inform investment decisions Stimulate innovation Why use futures? Also.. • Team building • Professional and personal development • Stimulate personal and social innovation & action

  16. The Futures toolkit is a full one! Visioning Delphi exercises Trends analysis Scenarios Expert Groups Horizon scanning

  17. Getting started….. Become “literate” in futures “Using concepts and techniques to help understand possible, probable and preferred futures” Get comfortable with concepts, tools and the outputs. Take small steps….. & manage expectations! You can use futures forward OR You can use futures backward

  18. How do we go there? THE FUTURE How did we get here? THE PRESENT

  19. Typically doing futures involves using a few key elements: • Trends • Weak Signals & Wild Cards • Drivers • Scenarios

  20. Weak signals and Wild cards Weak signals are all around us…. Wild cards can be dealt at anytime Expect the unexpected! • Look for the unexpected • Accept surprises • Value originality • Think ‘outside the box’

  21. Events & facts Patterns and Trends Signals: Structures, relationships, symbols The Weak Signals iceberg

  22. Weak signals exercise Read Exhibit 1 & think about: • What may it be telling us about possible future trends? • What may drive these futures?

  23. Creating Scenarios - Using drivers • Drivers are trends; forces or assumptions about what will drive change over the near to mid term and affect the future • A number of approaches are typically used: • Weak Signals • Literature reviews • Expert Groups • Focus Groups • Brainstorming • Delphi

  24. How do we go there? THE FUTURE How did we get here? THE PRESENT

  25. Creating scenarios – a futures forward approach Example: scenarios for future adaptation to climate change Pattern of political decision-making Isolate the drivers Select the most uncertain & the most important Draw ‘cross hairs’ Describe the scenarios Centralised A B Household choices and needs Individual Collective C D Devolved

  26. Creating scenarios – a futures backwards approach Not as daft as it sounds! Companies have a mission Politicians have a vision Futures can help us analyse how to: • get where we want to be • identify what we need to do to get there • Identify what may prevent or hinder us.

  27. Futures backward case study • BMW is one of the regions of Ireland. In 2005 – it set out to create a fresh regional strategy • Chose 4 desired futures – but they did not define them • Competitive region • Quality of life region • Innovative region • Knowledge region • Set up 4 parallel processes – took 9 months to explore: • What the desired future would look like? • What factors or trends would drive the desire future? • What would the barriers be? • How could the drivers be embraced and barriers overcome?

  28. Read the case study • Think about: • What were the drivers and barriers that they identified? • Who were seen as the winners & losers? • What key decisions did they identify as being needed?

  29. Telling the story effectively Story needs to be plausible & logical possible; credible; feasible; relevant 6 narrative tools to focus on: • Type of story – quest; drama; comedy of errors etc • Point-of-view – protagonist; narrator; reflector • Time frame – 5 years or 10 years;future forward; future backward • Protagonists – companies; sectors; regions; clients etc • Causal rules or the “logic” – political tradition; economic system; democracy & market forces etc • Enjoy the story and the process of writing it!!

  30. Thank you for your attention Meirion Thomas Observatory of Innovation Cardiff Business School thomasm1@cardiff.ac.uk

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