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Strategic Thinking

Strategic Thinking. What is Strategic Thinking Game Theory Applications to Business Applications to Life. Survivor: Picking Sticks. Rules: 12 Sticks During a player’s turn each person can pick 1-3 sticks. Last person to move wins. 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1.

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Strategic Thinking

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  1. Strategic Thinking • What is Strategic Thinking • Game Theory • Applications to Business • Applications to Life This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991.

  2. Survivor: Picking Sticks • Rules: • 12 Sticks • During a player’s turn each person can pick 1-3 sticks. • Last person to move wins 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991.

  3. Modified Picking Sticks Game • Rules: • 14 Sticks • During a player’s turn each person can pick 1-3 sticks. • Last person to move wins 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991.

  4. The Cambridge May Ball • Casino Night • Roulette • Play Money • Winner gets ticket to the ball • In the final round Barry has $700, and Eva $300 This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991.

  5. The Cambridge May Ball • Roulette • Numbers 0-36 • 0 is green • 1-36 odd numbers are Red, even are black • Betting $1 on Red wins with prob 18/37 and pays $2 • Betting $1 on a multiple of 3 wins with probability 12/37 and pays $3. • What should each person do? This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991.

  6. Forecasting Stock Performance • Bob is a veteran predictor of stocks. His predictions appear on a popular Web-Site Each Monday Morning. • Jim is unknown • If his stocks perform better than Bob’s he may attract attention • If his stocks perform the same or worse than Bob’s he remains unknown. • When should Bob post his picks on his web-site? How should he make his choices? This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991.

  7. America’s Cup • A two boat sailing race • The Australian boat starts out behind This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991.

  8. It’s your move Charlie Brown • Lucy: “I’ll hold the ball, you come running up and kick it Charlie Brown” • Charlie Brown “This year I’m gonna kick the ball out of the universe.” This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991.

  9. New Cleaners & Fast Cleaners • Vacuum Cleaners • Existing company Fast Cleaner’s Vacuums • Potential Entrant: New Cleaners • Post Entry choices for Fast Cleaners • Accommodate entry • Fight a price war This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991.

  10. New Cleaners & Fast Cleaners Accommodate $100,000 to New Cleaners Fast Cleaners Enter Price War $-200,000 to New Cleaners Newcleaners $0 to New Cleaners Keep Out This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991.

  11. New Cleaners & Fast Cleaners Accommodate $100,000 to New Cleaners $100,000 to Fast Cleaners Fast Cleaners Enter Price War $-200,000 to New Cleaners -$100,000 to Fast Cleaners Newcleaners $0 to New Cleaners Keep Out This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991.

  12. Bargaining: Ice-Cream Pie • Take-it-or-leave-it offers • The pie is melting This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991.

  13. Politics and the High Road High Road Obama Wins Clinton Low Road Clinton has a chance High Road Obama Clinton has a chance High Road Low Road Clinton Low Road Obama Wins This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991.

  14. 1984 Orange Bowl • Nebraska is undefeated, U. of Miami has one loss prior to the Orange Bowl • If Nebraska wins or ties the game it wins the national title • In the 4th quarter Miami led 31-17 • Nebraska score two touchdowns • On the second touchdown Nebraska goes for the win by trying 2-point extra point. They fail, and lose. This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991.

  15. Dominant Strategies • Professor Jones choosing the right grail • Baseball: 2-outs, 2-strikes, runner on first This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991.

  16. Time and Newsweek *Magazine sales for Time; ** Magazine sales for Newseek This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991.

  17. A different situation This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991.

  18. Football * Offense’s expected yardage gain This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991.

  19. Missile warfare C Iraqi Ship F B E A I H D American Ship G This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991.

  20. Table of Hits and Misses This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991.

  21. Dominated Strategies This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991.

  22. Reduced Table of Hits and Misses This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991.

  23. Nash Equilibrium • Definition • Feast: Too many equilibria • Standards: Driving on the right side of the road. • Phone connection breaks off: Who calls back • Famine • Re-examine the Missile game • Mixed Strategies This slideshow was written by Ken Chapman, but is substantially based on concepts from Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit and Barry J. Nalebuff, W.W. Norton 1991.

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