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SWG Resource Team Update

SWG Resource Team Update. Thomas Carr September 29, 2009 Studies Work Group Call. Topics . Modeling the Base Case (PC1 ) Change Cases Wind Change Cases (PC 2, PC3, PC4) Southwest Change Case (PC6) Near-State Case (PC7 ) OTC/ESA Case (PC5) Expansion Cases Strategy for Next Steps

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SWG Resource Team Update

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  1. SWG Resource Team Update Thomas Carr September 29, 2009 Studies Work Group Call

  2. Topics • Modeling the Base Case (PC1) • Change Cases • Wind Change Cases (PC 2, PC3, PC4) • Southwest Change Case (PC6) • Near-State Case (PC7) • OTC/ESA Case (PC5) • Expansion Cases • Strategy for Next Steps • 20-Year Case with 33% renewables • 10-Year Case with 25% renewables • Staff Assessment of Time and Tasks

  3. A. Modeling the Base Case (PC1) • Two prong approach to modeling Base Case • California • 33% RPS target; about 75% of all incremental renewables • CA PUC report: 33% RPS Implementation Analysis / RETI • Reference Case – current procurement and market trends, including large reliance on solar CSP • Out-of-State Case – higher levels of imports from NV and WY • Rest-of-WECC • IRP survey of LSEs outside of CA • L&R data for renewable projects by subregion

  4. Base Case (PC1) cont. • Recent Modeling issues • CA RPS GWh target adjusted downward from 33% Report • Differences in load data btw TEPPC and CA entities • Different years modeled: TEPPC 2019 and CPUC 2020 • 2020 RPS 33% v. 2019 RPS 31.7% prorated • 2020 loads higher than 2019 loads • Take out lowest ranked RETI sites to get targeted GWh • RETI zones: Baja, Palm Springs, San Bernardino-Lucerne • Solar profiles • Previous TEPPC modeling specified solar CSP with storage • CA 33% case assumes high levels of PV and CSP without storage • Keith White obtained new solar profiles from CA working group

  5. B. Change Cases

  6. 1. Wind Change Cases • Three wind change cases: • PC2: Add 3000 MW wind in WY/MT • PC3: Add 3000 MW wind in WA/OR of Lower Columbia • PC4: Add 3000 MW wind in AB/BC • Wind energy differs in each case • PC2: 10,485 GWh • PC3: 7,748 GWh • PC4: 8,378 GWh • Requesters (NTTG/ColumbiaGrid) want to shift constant nameplate capacity (3000 MW) between regions • SWG issue: Whether these change cases should be modeled to maintain constant total energy generation WECC-wide and constant renewable generation to meet RPS target? • Could reduce near equivalent renewable GWh in CA/WA-OR • Utilize some version of the Out-of-state scenario from 33% RPS report

  7. 2. Southwest Change Case (PC6) • Option A: 3 sources, 3 types (most diverse) • AZ 1000 MW solar • NM 1000 MW wind • NV 1000 MW geo • Option B: 2 sources, 2 types (better line utilization) • AZ 1500 MW solar • NM 1500 MW wind • Option C: Substitute CA solar with alternative types • NM 1500 MW wind • NV 1000 MW geo • Option D: Substitute CA solar with other solar • AZ 1500 MW solar • NM 1500 MW solar

  8. 3. Instate or Near-state Case (PC7) • Base Case (PC1) relies heavily on instate renewable generation • CA 33% RPS reference case assumes high in-state renewable development • Other states, IRPs generally rely on local resources • Near-state case would shift CA resources to areas outside but near CA, e.g. • Baja wind, NV geothermal • SWG Issue: Should we proceed with PC7? If so, what form?

  9. 4. OTC/ESA Case (PC5) • Evaluate impact of removing generation subject to Once-Through-Cooling (OTC) and Endangered Species Act (ESA) issues • Mary Johannis compiled list of OTC/ESA generation resources with input from CEC, CAISO, E3 and LSEs. • ESA dam removals • Lower Snake River dams (3033 MW) in WA • Klamath River relicense (169 MW) in OR and CA • OTC generation list (13,855 MW) in CA • Nuclear plants not retired in 2019 (4490 MW) • Replacement generation issue • Air quality constraints

  10. 5. Expansion Cases • Purpose • Expansion cases add transmission in location to identified congestion • Evaluate whether the proposed addition alleviates congestion and other impacts • Expansion cases linked to each change case: • PC2, PC3, PC4, PC5, PC6, PC7 • Study requests: • TransCanada: Zepher, Chinook, NorthernLights • LS Power: Vulcan – G3 Project • NTTG • WestConnect

  11. C. Strategy for Next Steps • Remaining cases in the Study Plan: • 20-year cases (2029) • Long-term 33% Renewable Case (2029 PC1) • Expansion case with transmission added where congestion identified (2029 EC1-1) • Large transmission overlay (2029 EC1-2) • OTC/ESA Impacts (2029 PC2) • 10-year Aggressive RPS (2019) • 25% renewable penetration, 25-40% reduction CO2 emissions, and sensitivities • Might be easier build that 20-year case by adding generation to PC1 • SWG Issue – Given time remaining, should we proceed with 20 year case(s), or 10-year Aggressive RPS? • WECC Staff assessment on tasks and time available

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