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Vulnerability of Pakistan to Climate Change Hazards Dr. M. Mohsin Iqbal Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) Isl

Vulnerability of Pakistan to Climate Change Hazards Dr. M. Mohsin Iqbal Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) Islamabad. “National Disaster Awareness Day -2009” Convention Centre, Islamabad 08 October 2009 . Climate Change

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Vulnerability of Pakistan to Climate Change Hazards Dr. M. Mohsin Iqbal Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) Isl

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  1. Vulnerability of Pakistan to Climate Change HazardsDr. M. Mohsin IqbalGlobal Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC)Islamabad “National Disaster Awareness Day -2009” Convention Centre, Islamabad 08 October 2009

  2. Climate Change “the greatest challenge facing the world at the beginning of the century.” World Economic Forum Davos, Switzerland 2000 (www.weforum.org/) “the most important long-term issue which we face as a global community”. Jack Straw, British Foreign Secretary (Daily NEWS 15 May 2004)

  3. Climate Change: Some Definitions Weather:The state of the atmosphere at a given time and place, with respect to the variables such as temperature, moisture, pressure etc. Climate: Average weather. Statistical description of mean weather conditions over a period of several years, typically 2-3 decades. Climate Change: Climate Change in excess of natural variability, attributable to human activity. 060212/0051

  4. 30% 343 W/m2

  5. Greenhouse Effect • The Greenhouse Effect plays a crucial role in maintaining a life-sustaining environment on the Earth; • If there was no Greenhouse Effect, the average temperature of the Earth would have been -18oC (253°K) instead of the present 15oC; • Human activity is enhancing the natural Greenhouse Effect by adding gases like carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, chlorofluorocarbons, ozone, etc; • It is this Enhanced Greenhouse Effect which is causing Global Warming and Climate Change.

  6. CLIMATE CHANGE Global Warming Increased Precipitation & its Uneven Distribution Melting of Glaciers & Snow Sea level Rise Increase in Frequency & Intensity of Extreme Weather Events IMPACTS Uncertainty in Water Availability Decrease in Crop Yields Newer perspective for sources of energy Loss of Biodiversity Increased Health Risks Natural Climate Variability Climate Change Natural + Anthropogenic Anthropogenic Influences since the Industrial revolution Spiraling Population High pace of Industrialization Increasing use of Fossil Fuels in Industry & Transport Deforestation for Agriculture and Urbanization

  7. Some Major Findings of IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), 2007 • 0.6 0 C increase in average global temperature during the last century (11 of last 12 years being warmest since 1850, with 1998 being on top.) • Increase by 1.1-6.4 0 C projected over the 21st Century, with most likely range being 1.8-4.0 0 C ; • Associated to this will be large changes (both, increases and decreases) of temperature and precipitation in different world regions; • Frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events (severe cyclonic storms, floods, droughts etc.) will increase considerably; • Large scale melting of mountain glaciers and polar ice caps, particularly the Arctic; • Substantial rise in sea level.

  8. Global Response • Climate Change is being addressed by several national research programs in all developed countries: • A number of developing countries are also actively pursuing climate change research, e.g. • In South Asia region, India has some 20 establishments and Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka are also engaged in CC research; • China has a large number of establishments engaged in CC research.

  9. Climate Change Science Studies in Pakistan • 2001: Establishment of a multi-disciplinary effort for Climate Change research proposed by Dr. Ishfaq Ahmad, Special Advisor to the Prime Minister; • May 2002: Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) established with seed money provided by Ministry of Sc & Tech; GCISC now being supported by Planning Commission. • January 2005: Prime Minister’s Committee on Climate Change established, with GCISC as its Secretariat. • Dec., 2006 :GCISC attached to National Centre for Physics as an autonomous organization. • Oct., 2008: Planning Commission established a Task Force on Climate Change with GCISC as its Secretariat.

  10. Vulnerability of Pakistan Pakistan, like other countries in South Asia, is most vulnerable to Climate Change, because : • A large part of its economy is based on agriculture which is climate sensitive; • It has low technological and scientific base and have limited access to knowledge; • It has low capacity to adapt to changes resulting from CC; • It lacks financial and institutional capacity.

  11. Challenges of Climate Change Water Challenge Food Security challenge Climate Extreme Events Hazards Impacts on other Ecosystems

  12. Vulnerability of Water Resources to Climate Change • Increased variability of Monsoon • More rapid recession of HKH Glaciers threatening IRS Flows • Shortage of irrigation water for agriculture, water for industrial and domestic sectors. • Increased risks of floods and droughts

  13. Melting of Glaciers in Pakistan Glaciers are life line of Pakistani rivers. The total water storage in glaciers in Upper Indus Basin (UIB) is 2,200 MAF Melt water from these Glaciers contributes more than 60% to the flows from UIB. International Commission for Snow and Ice (ICSI) “ (1999): Glaciers in Himalayas are receding faster than in any other part of the world and, if the present rate continue, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 is very high”. World Bank (2006): Western Himalayan glaciers will retreat for the next 50 years causing increase of Indus River flows. Then the glacier reservoirs will be empty, resulting in decrease of flows by up to 30% to 40% over the subsequent fifty years.

  14. Projected Changes in HKH Glaciers IPCC AR4 (2007): Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding within next two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows as the glaciers recede. Hewitt (2005):reported widespread evidence of glacier expansion in the late 1990s in the Central Karakoram, in contrast to a worldwide decline of mountain glaciers. These conflicting findings make the impact of climate change on Karakoram glaciers and Indus River flows very uncertain.

  15. Qori Kalis Glacier, Quelccaya Ice Cap, Peru, 1978 2002

  16. 2004 1875 The Pasterze, Austria's longest glacier, was about 2 kilometers longer in the 19th C. but is now completely out of sight from this overlook on the Grossglockner High Road.

  17. 2000 1993 Mount Kiliminjaro, Kenya, Africa

  18. Changes in Gangotri Glacier, Indian Himalaya This composite ASTER image shows how the Gangotri Glacier terminus has retracted since 1780. Contour lines are approximate. (Image by Jesse Allen, Earth Observatory; based on data provided by the ASTER Science Team; glacier retreat boundaries courtesy the La2020nd Processes Distributed Active Archive Center)

  19. 1989-10-09 2000-10-31

  20. 060212/0029 1992-10-15 2000-10-29

  21. GLOFS in Pakistan As glaciers retreat, glacial lakes form behind moraine or ice 'dams’. These can breach anytime leading to floods known as Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) which can destroy: property, farms, socio-economic infrastructure and livelihood of mountain people and downstream communities. 

  22. GLOF-induced damages at ChutGhusth, Ghulkin Web Source: http://pamirtimes.net/2008/06/page/3/

  23. Temporal Change Detection In Biafo Glacier, Karakoram, Pakistan. Landsat image;Resolution 30m 3d view of Main Biafo Glacier (Shigar River Basin) with overlaid digitized boundary of the glacier showing the changes in the main glacier stream.

  24. Glacier Area Currently under Study at GCISC Hunza River Basin

  25. Retreat of the Helheim Glacier Greenland 2005 2003 2001

  26. The Water Challenge: Conclusion • There is an urgent need to • Assess Pakistan’s glaciers, future water resources and storage requirements in the wake of climate change threat • Take appropriate ameliorative measures well in time to avoid calamites.

  27. Food Security Challenge

  28. Agriculture Systems in Pakistan Irrigated Agriculture Consumes >90% of fresh water resources and contributes >80% to national production Rained and Dryland Agriculture Contributes <30% to national production.

  29. Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change Irrigated areas: Vulnerable to irrigation water shortage due to glacier melt in the wake of climate change Semi-arid and Arid areas: Vulnerable to changes in quantity, intensity and frequency of rainfalls. Both of the irrigated and dry areas: vulnerable to climate extreme events of floods, droughts, heat waves, cold waves, dust storms, hail storms, sea storms, etc

  30. Impacts of Climate Change on Crops Shortening of growing season length Loss in yield Heat stress at sensitive growth stages, e.g. flowering, grain initiation stages Increased pest/disease incidence Increased crop water requirements

  31. Effect of increase in temperature on Wheat yields in different agro-climatic zones of Pakistan

  32. Climate Extreme Events • Flash floods, • Droughts, • Heavy precipitation events, • Hailstorms, • Dust storms, • Cyclones, • Heat /Cold waves

  33. Climate Extreme Events in Pakistan 2009 Karachi received 205 mm of rain at Masroor Airbase and 144 mm at Airport during July. Previous record for rainfall at Karachi is 208 mm occurred in 1977 2007Record heat wave gripped Pakistan during June, 2007. The temperature of 48 C was recorded on 9th June, 2007 at Lahore, a record repeated after 78 years. Earlier it was recorded on 8th June, 1929 2007 Two super cyclones namely Gonuof Cat-5 and Yemyinof Cat-1 developed in the Arabian Sea during June, 2007 and hit Makran coast and adjoining countries. The history of Arabian Sea at least during the previous century finds no such events occurring twice in a month 2006 In Pakistan, monsoon-related flooding was blamed for more than 185 deaths from late July through mid-August 2006 (AFP). In neighboring eastern Afghanistan, heavy rainfall generated flooding that claimed at least 35 lives (Associated Press) 2005 Heavy rain caused flooding in parts of Pakistan and Afghanistan in March. The flooding hit Balochistan Province very adversely. There were more than 30 fatalities in southwestern Pakistan

  34. Recent Climate Extremes in Pakistan 2005 During June, unusually warm temperatures in the mountainous areas of northern Pakistan accelerated snowmelt and brought extensive flooding along the Kabul, Swat, Kunar and Chitral rivers 2005 Heavy rains in the south and snow in the north as well as Kashmir region triggered flooding and avalanches, killing at least 486 people during second week of February 2004 Unusual late-season heavy snow fell across the Kashmir region along the border of India and Pakistan during early May. Some 20,000 nomads trapped in the Himalayan areas of Kashmir. 2003 Heavy rain and snow produced flooding in mid February was responsible for more than 60 deaths in Balochistanprovince. Flash flooding washed away parts of roads and highways. 2003 At least one million people were affected by seasonal monsoon rains in southern Pakistan. Heavy rains caused 162 deaths with 153 fatalities in the Sindh province

  35. Continued: 2003 During early June, a heat wave caused maximum temperature reached 52°C at Jacobabad on the 5th; normal highs in early June are near 44°C 2001 621 mm rainfall in Islamabad during 10 hours in the month of July 1999-2001 History’s worst drought gripped Pakistan and parts of surrounding countries

  36. Buffaloes on Roof Top(once a joke, now a reality)

  37. Urban Flooding in Lai Nullah( 23rd July 2001)

  38. Flood Stranded People on the Highway

  39. Rescuing the drowning fellows

  40. Impacts on other Ecosystems

  41. Land Degradation in Pakistan • Water Erosion : 17% • Wind Erosion : 8% • Salinity and Sodicity : 9% • Waterlogging : 5% • Low organic matter (<1%) : 96%

  42. Impacts on Land degradation Land degradation enhanced by climate change due to Wind and water erosion, as a result of low and high rainfall Water-logging and Salinity, as a result of greater evaporation from land surface.

  43. Vulnerability of Mountain Region Enhanced de-glaciation Loss of biodiversity Overall increasing trend in rainfall leading to surface runoff, soil erosion, landslides, sedimentation load downstream Positive impact on yield of wheat Prospects of two crops a year

  44. Coastal Zones • Inundation of coastal areas will pose risk to Mangrove forests, coral reefs breeding ground of fish and infrastructure • Upstream intrusion of saline water in the Indus delta will pose risk to agriculture, fresh drinking water and livelihood of dependant communities, thousands of hectares of fertile soil will become saline • Even with drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, sea level will continue to rise for centuries beyond 2100 because of the long response time of the global ocean system.

  45. Coping with the Climate Change • Assessment of vulnerability, risk and possible impacts of vulnerable areas and communities • Preparedness for disaster and risk management • Development of early warning system • Reducing the vulnerability to livelihoods through infra-structural changes • Developing new and innovative farm production practices, including new crop varieties and irrigation techniques • Empowering communities and local stakeholders for their active participation in vulnerability assessment and implementation of adaptation • Mainstreaming climate change into development planning at all scales, levels and sectors

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