SECOND THOUGHTS ON THE M7.2 EARTHQUAKE THAT STRUCK SW PAKISTAN

1. SECOND THOUGHTS ON THE M7.2 EARTHQUAKE THAT STRUCK SW PAKISTAN IN THIS CASE, REMOTENESS OF THE EPICENTRAL AREA AND 83 KM (50 MI) DEPTH REDUCED THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGE 1:30 AM; JANUARY 19, 2011 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA

2. LOCATION MAP

3. Ground shaking from this earthquake, which wascentered in Baluchistan province, the country's most sparsely populated area, was felt in India and the United Emirates (USGS).

4. THIS QUAKE, UNLIKE THE ONE IN 2005, WAS NOT A DISASTER • The M7.6 quake on Oct. 8, 2005, killed about 80,000 people in northwestern Pakistan and Kashmir and left more than 3 million homeless.

5. THE SEVERITY OF THE 2005 KASHMIR EARTHQUAKE DISASTER WAS RELATED TO ITS MAGNITUDE, SHALLOW DEPTH, SOIL AMPLIFICATION, AND POOR CONSTRUCTION

6. DISASTER RISK REDUCTION FOR PAKISTAN APPLYING KNOWLEDGE THAT CAN BENEFIT MILLIONS

7. DISASTER RISKS FACED BY PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKES GOAL: REDUCE DISASTER RISK CYCLONES FLOODS DEVELOP POLICIES FOR ACTIONS HAVING HIGH BENEFIT/COST FOR PAKISTAN LANDSLIDES ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

8. EXAMPLE:KASHMIR EARTHQUAKE OCTOBER 8, 2005

9. KASHMIR EARTHQUAKE 8:50 AM OCTOBER 8, 2005 M7.6 10 KM (6 MI) DEPTH 79,000 DEAD IN PAKISTAN; 1,400 IN INDIA COLLAPSED SCHOOLS AND HOSPITALS 3 MILLION HOMELESS

10. OCCURRENCE • The earthquake occurred in the Main Boundary Thrust Zone (MBTZ), which runs along the Himalayan Arc for about 2,500 km. • The epicenter was near Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistani administered Kashmir.

11. OUTLOOK FOR THE FUTURE • Experts believe that the October 8th earthquake released only about 10 percent of the accumulated strain energy.

12. TECTONIC PLATES TODAY

13. COLLISION OF INDO-AUSTRALIAN AND EURASIAN PLATES

14. OCTOBER 8, 2005 PAKISTAN EARTHQUAKE

15. ISLAMABAD

16. ISLAMABAD

17. ISLAMABAD

18. ISLAMABAD

19. ISLAMAAD

20. ISLAMABAD

21. KASHMIR

22. AFGHANISTAN

23. LAHORE

24. BALAKOT

25. BALAKOT

26. BALAKOT

27. MUZARAFFABAD

28. MUZAFFARABAD

29. MUZAFFARABAD (LANDSLIDE)

30. MUZAFFARABAD FOOD LINE

31. HAZARD MAPS • INVENTORY • VULNERABILITY • LOCATION • EDUCATIONAL SURGE • PREVENTION/MITIGATION • PREPAREDNESS • EMERGENCY RESPONSE • RECOVERY and • RECONSTRUCTION RISK ASSESSMENT RISK MANAGEMENT ACCEPTABLE RISK RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK TOWARDS EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE DATA BASES AND INFORMATION PAKISTAN COMMUNITIES HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

32. GOAL: DISASTER RISK REDUCTION • ALL SECTORS OF THE COMMUNITY NEED TO HAVE EQUITY IN DESIGNING A MIX OF APPLICATIONS THAT WILL LEAD TO EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE.

33. LONG-TERM NEEDS OF PAKISTAN • NEED: 2 TO 3 MILLION NEW DWELLINGS THAT ARE EARTHQUAKE RESILIENT. • NEED: NEW SCHOOLS THAT ARE EARTHQUAKE RESILIENT. • NEED: NEW HOSPITALS THAT ARE EARTHQUAKE RESILIENT. • NEED: NEW INFRASTRUCTURE THAT IS EARTHQUAKE RESILIENT.

34. CONTINUOUS PUBLIC AWARENESS PROGRAMS EDUCATIONAL SURGES AND TRAINING FOR PROFESSIONALS EXPANDED SEISMIC AND BUILDING MONITORING SYSTEMS EXPANDED COMMUNICATION SYSTEMS MODERN BUILDING CODES FOR NEW BUILDINGS MODERN STANDARDS FOR NEW INFRASTRUCTURE STRENGTHENING AND RETROFIT FOR EXISTING STRUCTURES EXPANDED HEALTH-CARE SYSTEMS STEPS TOWARDS EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE

35. IN-COUNTRY BASIC AND APPLIED RESEARCH IMPLEMENTATION OF LESSONS FROM THE OCTOBER 8, 2005 DISASTER GROUND SHAKING MAPS BUILDING CODES EDUCATIONAL SURGES AND TRAINING FOR COMMUNITY PROFESSIONALS STARTING POINTS

36. BOOK OF KNOWLEDGE: SOIL AMPLIFICATION • CONSTRUCTION WAS MAINLY CONCENTRATED ON THE FLOOD- PLAIN DEPOSITS OF THE NEEHLAN, JAHLUM, AND KUNHAR RIVERS. • BUILDINGS SITED ON SAND AND LOOSE GRAVEL DEPOSITS WERE SEVERELY DAMAGED; • WHEREAS, BUILDINGS SITED ON ROCK WERE NOT SEVERELY DAMAGED.

37. DISASTER RISK REDUCTION GOALS • PREVENTION (CONTROL WHAT HAPPENS) • PROTECTION(BUILD TO WITHSTAND) • LAND-USE CONTROL (AVOIDANCE)

38. DISASTER RISK REDUCTION GOALS • SITE MODIFICATION • REAL-TIME MONITORING AND WARNING SYSTEMS • EARTHQUAKE SCENARIOS • COMMUNITY RESPONSE PLANS • COMMUNITY RECOVERY PLANS

39. PROFESSIONAL EDUCATION CAN BE ACCELERATED ADD NEW KNOWLEDGE TO EXISTING BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE IMPROVE EDUCATION CLARIFY GOALS ELEMINATE BARRIERS ADOPT STRATEGIES THAT WORK VISUALIZE BENEFITS ALIGN THINKING & ACTION

40. AN EDUCATIONAL SURGE RELEVANT INCREASES PUBLIC AWARENESS THE CHARACTER-ISTICS OF A SUCCESSFUL SURGE INCREASES UNDERSTANDING ENABLES POLICY ADOPTION INCREASES EQUITY

41. HEAR UNDER-STAND IDENT-IFY THE END-GAME OF AN EDUCATIONAL SURGE PERIOD OF IMPLEMENTATION PERIOD OF INTEGRATION WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPLI-CATIONS PERSON-ALIZE

42. APPLICATIONS THAT HAVE A HIGH BENEFIT TO COST RATIO FOR PAKISTAN MANY APPLICATIONS CAN BE IMPLEMENTED WITH LITTLE OR NO EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE

43. BENEFIT/COST BUILDING CODE WITH MODERN SEISMIC DESIGN PROVISIONS PREVENTS COLLAPSE AND REDUCES LOSS OF LIFE AND DAMAGE 1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000

44. BENEFIT/COST STANDARDS FOR LIFELINE SYSTEMS PROTECTS COMMUNITY INFRASTRUCTURE 1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000

45. BENEFIT/COST NON-STRUCTURAL MITIGATION PROTECTS CONTENTS AND EQUIPMENT 1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000

46. BENEFIT/COST STRENGTHEN COLLAPSE HAZARD BUILDINGS PREVENT COLLAPSE AND LOSS OF LIFE 1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000

47. BENEFIT/COST RISK ZONATION IDENTIFIES LOCAT- IONS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO LOSS OF LIFE 1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000

48. BENEFIT/COST EDUCATION SURGE AND TRAINING FOR PROFESSIONALS EXPANDS PROFESSIONAL AND POLITICAL CAPACITY 1 < BENEFIT/COST < 1,000

49. BENEFIT/COST DISASTER SCENARIONS FACILITATES PREPARATION FOR SEARCH AND RESCUE AND HEALTH CARE 1< BENEFIT/COST < 1,000