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Mid-Year Economic Update: Cotton Industry Insights and Global Market Overview (2009)

During the National Cotton Council's Mid-Year Board Meeting in Amelia Island, Florida, from August 24-26, 2009, key insights were shared regarding the cotton industry amid an economic landscape potentially starting to recover. Fed Chairman Bernanke noted indications of a leveling out in economic activity with prospects for growth, albeit slowly. Highlights include changes in US cotton consumption, textile trade declines, and the cotton supply and demand landscape in key international markets like China, India, and Brazil. It raises critical questions about US production acres and the implications for future mill use and pricing.

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Mid-Year Economic Update: Cotton Industry Insights and Global Market Overview (2009)

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  1. Cotton Economic Update National Cotton Council Mid-Year Board Meeting Amelia Island, Florida August 24-26, 2009

  2. Has the Economy Bottomed? • Fed Chairman Bernanke thinks so • “After contracting sharply over the past year, economic activity appears to be leveling out, … ,and the prospects for a return to growth in the near term appear good.” • “the economic recovery is likely to be relatively slow at first...”

  3. % Change in Real GDP 3rdQ?

  4. Cotton & Textile Demand

  5. Textile Trade Declined thru May(Totals as reported by Global Trade Atlas)

  6. US Cotton Domestic Consumption

  7. More Modest Drop in US Spendingfor Clothing & Shoes

  8. US Cotton Mill Use

  9. International Markets

  10. Update on Key Countries • W Africa – Lower production & exports • Brazil – Some quality concerns with current harvest; expected shift to soybeans • Central Asia – Smaller crops due to reduced area • Pakistan – No widespread concerns on production; new support to textile industry & some improvements in spinning margins

  11. China Cotton Supply & Use

  12. China Cotton Price vs. A Index

  13. India’s Min Support Price

  14. India Cotton Supply & Use

  15. Cotton Exports

  16. US Production

  17. ‘09 Cotton Acres @ 9.05 Million

  18. US Acres & Relative Prices

  19. US Cotton Production

  20. Cotton Crop Conditions

  21. US Supply & Demand

  22. Cotton Prices

  23. Summary

  24. Recovery in Mill Use?

  25. Drawdown in World Stocks?

  26. Have US Acres Bottomed? ’10 ratios based on current Dec & Nov ’10 futures contracts

  27. Producers Cooperatives Ginners Cottonseed Merchants Warehouses Manufacturers

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