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Research History

Research History. Staff member ECMWF, 00 – present Many collaborations Cloud schemes, African climate, radiation, stochastic physics, data assimilation Post-doc Max Planck Institute: 97 – 00 Working mostly alone Convective organisation, first prognostic statistical cloud scheme

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Research History

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  1. Research History • Staff member ECMWF, 00 – present • Many collaborations • Cloud schemes, African climate, radiation, stochastic physics, data assimilation • Post-doc Max Planck Institute: 97 – 00 • Working mostly alone • Convective organisation, first prognostic statistical cloud scheme • PhD University of Reading: 94 – 97 • Ground-work education • Cloud resolving models, tropical convection, radiative convective equilibrium

  2. Previous Research Topics (I) • Idealized process studies using models (convection) • Convective initiation: e.g. coldpools, humidity • Role of humidity for convective organisation • Tropical cloud feedbacks for future climates • Role of humidity on the Madden-Julian Oscillation • Global model cloud schemes • ECHAM5: First prognostic statistical cloud scheme • New numerics/physics for ECMWF forecast model cloud scheme (e.g. ice supersaturation) • Simple parametrization for aerosol feedbacks on ice phase clouds • Data assimilation • New cloud scheme for 4D-Var assimilation system

  3. Previous Research Topics (II) • Radiation • Developed simple diagnostic spectral cloud model for radiation investigations • New parametrization of cloud overlap in the ECMWF radiation scheme for declining sun angles • Africa • Used JET-2000 observations to assess ECMWF in Africa • Dust-radiative feedback impact on African dynamics • Role of Med SSTs in governing Sahel rainfall • AMMA-ECMWF: new ECMWF representative on international scientific steering committee • Observations • Aircraft data use for cloud scheme development • Collaborations with University of Reading, JPL, and others as part of Cloudnet, Cliwanet, JET2000

  4. Research Experience Summary • Models: • Global NWP • Global climate models • Cloud resolving models • Parametrization of processes: • Convection • Cloud cover and microphysics (also for DA) • Radiation • Studied different regimes: • Radiative convective equilibrium • African climate • Global convective and cloud systems • Good personal connections to a wide community • US/EU/Africa, NWP & climate, diverse research fields

  5. Future (New) Research Direction: “The West African Monsoon” • Rain-fed agriculture with high food insecurity • Large problems to tackle • Models are relatively poor in this region e.g. ECMWF • Models diagnostics are not tailored for this region • Difficulty of getting information to end-users • Excellent research problem • Interaction between organised convection and larger-scale dynamics: e.g. Heat low, Easterly Waves and Easterly Jet • Potential significant role of aerosols • Role of land-surface and local SST interactions • Timeliness: 2006 AMMA Campaigns • Excellent new database of intensive observations to make progress with this problem

  6. AMMA • Included: Aircraft campaigns, radars, mobile ARM, chemistry and aerosols, soil moisture, conventional obs, driftsondes, organised in LOP, EOP, and SOPs… • Special Observing Periods (SOP) in 2006: (i) the dry season (Jan-Feb), (ii) Monsoon onset (15 May-30 June), (iii) Peak monsoon (1 July -14 August) and (iv) Late monsoon (15 August-15 September).

  7. 24 hr Precipitation ACC scores From Mark Rodwell Asian Monsoon African Monsoon Approximately 180 SYNOP stations are used each day Approximately 20 SYNOP stations are used each day Highlights problems of conventional coverage

  8. Brightness Temperature 26 July 2006 00 UTCMeteosat Tb + 700 hPa steamfunction(T+00) 13 N From Anna Agusti-Panareda

  9. Brightness Temperature 26 July 2006 00 UTCSimulated Tb (T+00) + 700 hPa steamfunction (T+00) From Anna Agusti-Panareda

  10. Brightness Temperature 26 July 2006 00 UTCSimulated Tb (T+24) + 700 hPa steamfunction(T+24) 8 N From Anna Agusti-Panareda

  11. Daily, weekly and intra-seasonal prediction? • Sources of Predictability over daily and weekly timescales: • Dynamical and thermodynamical fields, especially wind shear and humidity • Madden-Julian Oscillation • Sea-surface temperatures • Gulf of Guinea • Mediterranean Sea • Remote • Land surface anomalies • Soil Moisture • Vegetation • Why does this not translate to predictability of rainfall? • Poor model physics and lack of interaction across scales? (MCS, AEW, AEJ, SHL)

  12. ECMWF Analysis of the Velocity potential Anomaly 27th June Using this, Andre Kamga of ACMAD in Niamey went on Niger national radio and (correctly) predicted a late monsoon onset 1st July 8th July

  13. Analysis 7 Day FC 27th June 1st July 8th July

  14. Rainfall Mean rainfall of Sahel region But 7 day forecast does much better at late onset than 1 day forecast Other sources of predictability, other than MJO? (e.g. Gulf SSTs?) Regional predictions on a more local scale are thus currently impossible with this model Latitude of rainfall maximum From Anna Agusti-Panareda

  15. Local - Users • …have needs for making local decisions such as planting dates • …Reliable forecasts of rainfall, temperature extremes and water resources even on a 0 to 2+ week timescale would aid the decision process and mitigation planning • Currently I have the impression that these needs are not being met by global NWP centres

  16. Global NWP centres • Have to prioritize their efforts – It is inevitable that priorities will focus on funding regions (e.g. ECMWF=EU) • Despite coordination at the level of the WMO, regional needs are not easily communicated to model developers • Projects such as AMMA have boosted the validation possibilities and help to focus attention on regional requirements but… • …the global NWP requirement slows (or even prevents) implementation of model improvements that target specific regions

  17. ICTP • …Has a regional climate model REG-CM3…with all the (potential) ingredients to perform regional climate simulations for this region • …This system would benefit from a NWP framework • Better NWP capability  Better climate representation (well usually, but not always!)

  18. Unique position of ICTP • Mission: “Foster the growth of advanced studies and research…especially among researchers from developing countries” • ICTP is in the ideal position to bridge the gap between global NWP centres and researchers/end users in West Africa West Africa end users and researchers Global NWP Centres ICTP

  19. A targeted regional prediction system ECMWF global forcing fields • Improvements to cloud and convective representation: • Mesoscale convective system forecast ability • Convective communication and triggering • Cloud interaction with aerosols (ice phase) RegCM-X Verification: Intra-seasonal statistics of rainfall and temperature extremes, Monsoon onset, break periods and recession, dust, crop predictions (using AMMA and CRM and ACMAD) Land surface scheme with Crop model DELIVERY and FEEDBACK!!!

  20. Institutional Structures ACMAD, Niger Andre Kamga African National Met Services UK/France Leeds Albany Toulouse CEH AMMA ICTP ARPA-(Italy) 1D-Var DA in RM ECMWF Analyses GEMS IMF (Germany) Sarah Jones Lokal Modell CRM studies

  21. Good reasons to extend link to AMMA • For the AMMA project to have a lasting impact on the well-being of the African populations it needs to be demonstrated that : i) the research has an impact on the decision making, ii) A sustainable state of the art environmental monitoring network for forecasting systems can be maintained, iii) African scientists can pursue the development of a better understanding of the dependence of human activities on weather and climate and iv) that they will continue improving forecasting systems over the region. (from the AMMA website “AMMA’s Training and Education Goals”)

  22. Potential Pitfalls • ICTP potential in terms of: • Manpower – Community interactions • Computing resources – Retain “low power” ethos for exportability • REG-CM3 “weaknesses” • Hydrostatic core (reliance on different models for CRM benchmarks) – Eventual move to non-hydrostatic core? • Physics diversity from global model and lack of two-way interaction – Emphasise links to NWP and aim for “trickle-up” physics

  23. Potential Benefits for ICTP • Improved capability of representing monsoon systems • Better NWP capability Better climate representation • Strengthen links to African community through NWP role • Strengthen links to ECMWF and European NWP community • Eventual long term aim would be to extend this system to Indian and American monsoon

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