Regional Growth Patterns and Scenario Planning – Futures 2040

1. Regional Growth Patterns and Scenario Planning – Futures 2040 New Mexico Housing Summit August 20, 2014

2. Who we are • Mid-Region Metropolitan Planning Organization, or MRMPO • MPOs are responsible for transportation planning activities for each metropolitan area of more than 50,000 people • MRMPO is part of the umbrella organization, the Mid-Region Council of Governments (MRCOG)

3. Who you are • Public housing agency, or other public sector? • Developer, realtor, or other private sector? • Involved in transportation planning, MRCOG or other? • None of the above? Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

4. Albuquerque Metropolitan Planning Area: • Three counties • Bernalillo County • Valencia County • Sandoval County (part) • Two urbanized areas: • Albuquerque • Los Lunas

5. Role of MRCOG in Prioritizing Infrastructure Projects • Not an implementation agency • Identify high priority projects • Distribute federal funds • Ensure that projects are consistent with the region’s long-range transportation plan

6. Metropolitan Transportation Plan • Long-range (20+ years) multi-modal transportation plan for the Albuquerque metro area • Updated every 4 years (current update  April 2015) • Projections of growth/development • List of all anticipated transportation projects in the region

7. MTP Questions • Can our transportation infrastructure handle the projected growth? • What roles should different modes play? • What type of strategies and investments should we pursue?

8. 2035 MTP: Roadway Enhancements • $3 billion in increased capacity • 600 new lane miles • North-south capacity • New network • 9 new/reconstructed interchanges

9. 2035 No-Build First step: Consider impacts of growth on existing infrastructure See what happens if we don’t build anything! Second step: Consider impacts of growth AND infrastructure investments See what happens after $3 billion in roadway investments

10. 2035 No-Build 2035 Build

11. Summary Statistics • Miles traveled by car: 16 million to 24 million (+ 50%) • Hours traveled by car: 400,000 to 740,000 (+ 80%) • Average speeds: 40 mph to 33 mph (- 17%) • Trips across the river: 492,000 to 960,000 (+94%)

12. Key Findings from 2035 MTP • River crossing congestion is a critical issue. • No new bridges have been proposed. • Building our way out of congestion is not realistic. • There is no silver bullet. A variety of strategies will be necessary to tackle congestion.

13. Scenario Planning Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

14. Scenario Planning How have you used scenario planning? Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

15. Scenario Planning • Scenario Planning vs. • Contingency Planning Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

16. Scenario Planning • How we grow is not a forgone conclusion • Allows us to ask: what if? • For example: What if future development takes place differently than it has in the past?

17. Scenario Planning • Approach that uses growth scenarios to understand costs and benefits of development patterns • Land consumption • Transportation conditions • Environmental impacts • Economic competiveness • Integrate land use and transportation planning to ensure effective long-term policy decisions Example from Nashville MPO

18. 2040 MTP: Scenario Planning June 2013 Fall 2014 Summer 2014 Spring 2014 LUTI Meetings / Workshops / Focus Groups Spring 2015 Futures 2040 Recommendations

19. Growth Projections Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

20. Population Projection Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

21. Growing Metropolitan Areas Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

22. 30-Year Growth by County Absolute Growth Percentage Growth

23. Employment Projection 582,300 396,900 Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

24. Key Employment Sectors Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

25. Age Distribution 2040 2012 Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

26. Shifting Age Distribution

27. An Aging Population Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

28. Generation Y / Millennials • Born early 1980s to early 2000s • 3x more likely to use transit (18% compared with 6%) • 63% expected to move within the next 5 years • Preference for smaller homes closer to work Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

29. Multi-Family Construction Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

30. Regional Challenges Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

31. Regional Challenges What are the biggest challenges & opportunities for our region as we grow? Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

32. Regional Challenges • Challenges Scenarios • Workshops • Agency staff • Public health advocates • Valencia County

33. Prioritizing Challenges for Future Growth Water Resources Economic Development Diverse Housing and Transportation Options (Modes/Types) Target Growth in Activity Centers Collaborative and Equitable Process Historic and Rural Preservation Composite Score

34. Summary of Regional Challenges / Needs • Water Sustainability / • Environment • Look at ways to improve water conservation through reuse, delivery and development patterns. • Better understand the current water resources and future availabilityand how transportation decisions affect our environment. • Economic • Development • Identify the best ways to achieve economic vitality that take health and quality of life into consideration. • Develop a sustainable, diversified, attractive, and resilient local economy. • Work to retain families and the younger generation. • Diverse Housing / • Transportation Options • Improve roadway and trail connectivity and design. • Create a transportation network that allows safe and convenient options to walk, bicycle, take transit and drive. • Support a variety of housing options for people of all ages and incomes. • Balance of Jobs • and Housing • Effectively use compact development and infill to balance housing and jobs and decrease travel distancesto services and transit stations. • Reduce pressure on the transportation system by limiting sprawl development. • Target Growth in Activity Centers • Support public spaces that foster social life with a mix of housing, retail, and workspace. • Improve existing centers and strategically locate new activity centers. • Provide a unique variety of great places accessible by transit for entertainment and arts, to gather, or to run errands. • Historic and • Rural Preservation • Preserve cultural heritage, balance rural character with urban growth, and respect and acknowledge the difference between our local neighborhood and regional identities. • Ensure historic preservation in main streets and original town sites. • Preserve agricultural land. • Climate Change / Resiliency • Pursue development patterns that make us more resilient to climate impacts . • Consider impacts of changing temperature and precipitation on energy demands, transportation infrastructure, and flood risk. • Reduce GHG emissions. • Reduce how much water we consume.

35. Growth Scenarios Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

36. 1. What are the scenarios? • Allowable Uses • Emerging Lifestyles • Balancing Jobs and Housing Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

37. Zoning:AllowableUses Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

38. Zoning:EmergingLifestyles Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

39. Zoning:Balancing Housing &Jobs Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

40. 2. How were the Scenarios Created? • UrbanSim • Predictive model for Socioeconomic Forecasting • Based on Local Data • Simulates Market Behavior • Compatible with our Travel Demand Model Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

41. 3. What do the scenarios have in common? • Local data (except zoning!!) • Model structure & equations • Roadway network • Regional population projection • Regional employment projection Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

42. Housing by Scenario Balancing Housing & Jobs Emerging Lifestyles Allowable Uses Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

43. Employment by Scenario Balancing Housing & Jobs Emerging Lifestyles Allowable Uses Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

44. Jobs to Housing Balance

45. Population Share by County 2012 AU JH EL Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

46. Employment Share by County 2012 AU JH EL Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

47. Roadway Performance Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

48. Commuting Measures Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

49. Sustainability Measures Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico

50. Putting it All Together • All scenarios show deteriorating travel conditions. • Zoning does have an impact on roadway performance; can test other strategies. • You can have fewer acres consumed by development and less congestion at the same time. • An increase in jobs west of the river appears to help alleviate the river crossing issue, but not commuting time. • Development patterns carry different benefits and costs to the region. Mid-Region Council of Governments of New Mexico