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Chapter 2: Current Performance and Future Potential

This workshop explores Myanmar's economic standing relative to peer economies, emphasizing trade and investment opportunities. We will analyze achievable growth scenarios amid current challenges in national economic reform. Key topics include trade-to-GDP ratios at a per capita income of $830, performance measurement, export and import expectations, and the application of stochastic frontier analysis to gauge Myanmar's economic potential. Participants will gain insights into estimating Myanmar's trade performance based on global benchmarks and understanding the barriers affecting its economic growth.

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Chapter 2: Current Performance and Future Potential

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  1. Chapter 2: Current Performance and Future Potential Shiro Armstrong 29 April workshop

  2. Outline • How does Myanmar measure up against comparable economies? • Trade and investment potential • Achievable trade and growth scenarios • Challenge for national economic reform

  3. Trade/GDP ratios at GDP per capita of 830 USD (t=0) Source: UN Comtrade and WDI (Ng, 2013)

  4. Trade performance • How to define and measure? • What do we expect Myanmar’s exports and imports to be given its size, place in the world, endowments and other characteristics? • Estimating a hypothetical frontier (maximum) based on characteristics of global best performers • Performance = actual/potential

  5. The (more) technical explanation • Stochastic frontier analysis applied to the gravity model (normal and non-negative residuals) • Achievement of potential is measure of economic distance. Estimates difficult to measure or unexplained resistances and barriers • Cannot compare actual to predicted trade from gravity model • GDP, distance, endowments to estimate performance • Policy variablesand barriers help explain performance

  6. Average import performance

  7. Average export performance

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