1 / 27

Real Estate Market Overview

Real Estate Market Overview. Stan Humphries, Chief Economist. Download this presentation at www.zillow.com/research/presentations. Zillow Home Value Index: Down 11.3% from 2007 peak. Source: Zillow (June 2014 ). Zillow Home Value Index: Annual deceleration, monthly gain.

kipling
Télécharger la présentation

Real Estate Market Overview

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Real Estate Market Overview Stan Humphries, Chief Economist

  2. Download this presentation at www.zillow.com/research/presentations

  3. Zillow Home Value Index: Down 11.3% from 2007 peak Source: Zillow (June 2014 )

  4. Zillow Home Value Index: Annual deceleration, monthly gain Source: Zillow (June 2014 )

  5. Five challenges for the housing market • Negative Equity • For-Sale Inventory • Household Formation Rates • Mortgage and Rental Affordability • Mortgage Rate Lock-In

  6. 1. Negative Equity

  7. But has declined steadily since 2012 Q1 Source: Zillow (2014 Q1)

  8. Negative Equity: Share of underwater homes by value tier Source: Zillow (2014 Q1)

  9. 2. For-Sale Inventory

  10. For-sale inventory has increased for the past four months Source: Zillow (June 2014 )

  11. Share of for-sale inventory is lowest in the bottom value tier Source: Zillow (June 2014 )

  12. 3. Household Formation

  13. Household formation still struggling below average Source: CPS/HVS

  14. Young adults are living at home at higher rates Housing demand will increase as they strike out on their own 13 Source: Census

  15. Renter households are forming faster than owner households 14 Source: Current Population Survey

  16. 4. Mortgage and Rental Affordability

  17. Rent affordability is at all time lows, U.S. spends 30% of income Source: Zillow (2014 Q1)

  18. United States: Mortgage affordability better than average Rent affordability worse than average Source: Zillow (2014 Q1)

  19. 5. Mortgage Rate Lock-in

  20. What “should” existing home sales be? Slower 5-year growth in home values Lower homeownership rate Low 30-yr FRM interest rate Mortgage rate lock-in* Lower annual income growth Higher vacancy rate Impact *Five-year difference in 30-yr FRM interest rates Source: Zillow Impact on home sales relative to “normal”

  21. Once interest rates exceed 5%, lock-in will be a drag on sales Source: Zillow

  22. Sales could slow in the coming year Source: NAR, Zillow

  23. Outlook

  24. Zillow Home Value Forecast for June 2015 positive Source: Zillow (June 2014)

  25. Summary and Outlook • Current recovery fueled by: • Huge reset in home prices • Low mortgage rates • Inventory constraints due to negative equity • “Normal” recoveries usually fueled by: • Household formations • Rising incomes • We are currently transitioning between these two types of recoveries, but it will be several more years before we get back to “normal” • Tailwinds for housing markets • Pent-up supply of household formations coming from doubled-up households • Increased economic growth/inflation which should filter down to wage growth

  26. About Zillow Real Estate Research- www.zillow.com/research In-depth research and monthly reports Real Estate Metrics • Zillow Home Value Index • Zillow Rent Index • Zillow Home Value Forecast • Negative equity • List prices • Sale prices • Rental prices • Home sales • $ value/square foot • $ price/square foot • Sale-to-list price ratio • % listings with price cuts • $ amount of listing price cuts • % homes sold for loss/gain • % homes foreclosed • % sales that are foreclosure re-sales • % homes increasing/decreasing in value • % homes sold in the past year • Price-to-rent ratios • Price-to-income ratios • Affordability All data is freely available on Zillow Research Most research briefs include interactive visuals

More Related