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Synthesis in U.S. GLOBEC

Synthesis in U.S. GLOBEC. Synthesis and Comparative Analysis In U.S. GLOBEC. Goal: Develop strategies for synthesis and integration of U.S. GLOBEC regional studies and develop approaches to comparative analysis among U.S. GLOBEC regional

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Synthesis in U.S. GLOBEC

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  1. Synthesis in U.S. GLOBEC

  2. Synthesis and Comparative Analysis In U.S. GLOBEC Goal: Develop strategies for synthesis and integration of U.S. GLOBEC regional studies and develop approaches to comparative analysis among U.S. GLOBEC regional studies and related national and international programs. Comparative studies include contrasts among related species with regions, among regions, and across system types and processes.

  3. Physical Processes Studied Gulf of Alaska Buoyancy Flow Downwelling Cross-Shelf Transport Stratification Georges Bank Stratification Retention/Loss Cross-Front Exchange California Current Upwelling/downwelling Cross-Shelf Transport Alongshore Transport Retention Stratification Southern Ocean Sea Ice Dynamics Stratification Retention

  4. Principal Target Species Gulf of Alaska Calanoid Copepods Euphausiids Pink Salmon Georges Bank Calanoid Copepods Cod Haddock California Current Calanoid Copepods Euphausiids Coho Salmon Chinook Salmon Southern Ocean Euphausa superba

  5. Some Organizing Themes for GLOBEC Synthesis & Comparative Analysis • Large-scale Atmospheric Forcing and Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics • Retention and Dispersal and the Role of • Topographic Control of Circulation • Top Down-Bottom Up Controls on Production • and the Trophic Cascade Hypothesis • Life History Strategies in Variable Environments • Importance of Basin-Scale Processes

  6. Atmospheric Forcing Ocean Dynamics Biological Response Atmospheric Temperature Primary Production Water Temperature Ice Cover Buoyancy- driven Flow Secondary Production Precipitation & Runoff Salinity Wind-driven Currents Fish Recruitment & Production Stratification & Fronts Wind Speed & Direction Upwelling Downwelling Fishery Yield Turbulent Mixing

  7. Modeling Broad-Scale Observations Retrospective Analysis Process Studies Technological Innovation

  8. U.S. GLOBEC Synthesis Activities - Framework for integrating process-oriented, broad/meso- scale, and retrospective studies in conceptual and mathematical models -Bridge spatial and temporal scales of GLOBEC studies to understand climate-scale impacts - Develop predictions of ecosystem response to climate change and variability - Synthesis within regional U.S. GLOBEC study locations and program as a whole

  9. 2 -4 -2 0 4 6 8 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Retrospective Analysis Broad-Scale Observations Process-Oriented Studies Modeling millennium 6 Thermohaline Conveyor Circulation 10 century 4 10 decade Currents & Fronts (l) Fronts (w) Adult Dispersal year Enso Events Currents (w) 2 Gyres 10 month week Upwelling Egg/larval Dispersal Turbulent Diffusion day 0 10 Turbulent Mixing hour -2 Predation Events 10 min -4 10 cm m km 100 km 1,000,000 km mm Space (m)

  10. Courtesy Cisco Werner

  11. Courtesy Dale Haidvogel

  12. Comparative Analysis in U.S GLOBEC - Extract broader lessons of ecosystem response to climate change and variability - Compare across systems and system types - Compare across taxa

  13. Response Variables for Comparative Analysis Mean States, Trends and Variance over Time • Physical Properties • Biological Properties • Ecological Properties • Model/Simulation Outputs

  14. Process Studies Time Series GLOBEC Ecosystem Comparisons Comparison Mode Within-Ecosystems Between-Ecosystems Process Studies Time Series Longitudinal and Cross-Sectional Studies

  15. Summary U.S. GLOBEC studies share a fundamental philosophical and methodological framework. We can take advantage of this to foster synthesis and integration. The key issues are: • Bridge spatial temporal scales at which GLOBEC studies are conducted to evaluate climate-scale impacts on marine ecosystems • Apply common modeling strategies in different U.S. GLOBEC studies • Apply comparative method across taxa and • system types to extract broader lessons from regional GLOBEC studies

  16. Analytical Methods

  17. Goal of Comparative Analysis in GLOBEC To Extract Broader Lessons of Climate Change Impacts on Marine Ecosystems through Comparison of Responses to Environmental Forcing at the Ecosystem, Community and Population Levels in Order to Facilitate Prediction and Analysis

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