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TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR NATIONAL POLICY-MAKING IN SLOVENIA

TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR NATIONAL POLICY-MAKING IN SLOVENIA. Peter STANOVNIK Institute for Economic Research. VII. Bled Forum on Europe Foresight Conference on Global, European and Regional Governance. Bled, 3. – 4. March 2006.

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TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR NATIONAL POLICY-MAKING IN SLOVENIA

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  1. TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT FOR NATIONAL POLICY-MAKINGIN SLOVENIA Peter STANOVNIK Institute for Economic Research VII. Bled Forum on Europe Foresight Conference on Global, European and Regional Governance Bled, 3. – 4. March 2006

  2. “The only thing that is certainabout the futureis its uncertainty” • study Key technologies (prepared for Ministry for Science and Technology by prof. M. Kos in 1997) • Foresight-Slotech 2010, conference organised by Ministry for Science and Ministry for Economy, 26. april 2001 • Analysis of key technologies and possibilities of establishing technology networks in Slovenia, IER, 2002 • 1. phase of Technology Foresight conducted by Institute for Economic Research for Ministry for Science and Technology, IER, 2004 CHRONOLOGY OF TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT ACTIVITIES IN SLOVENIA

  3. OBJECTIVES OF EXERCISE IN 2004 • a way of discussing a future • to strengthen a futures-oriented thinking in companies and research organizations • to identify thematic areas of expertise with potential for growth and renewal of manufacturing and service sectors • to collect information and design processes for identifying priority areas in which Slovenia should build expertise (National R&D programme 2006-2010)

  4. METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH • expert panels, Delphi method • identification of 8 technological and societal areas: • information and communication technologies (ICT) • advanced materials • biotechnology, pharmaceuticals, nutrition • environmentally acceptable manufacturing • sustainable construction • traffic and mobility • life-long learning • medicine – care for the elderly • proposal of 40-50 theses in each thematic field (area) • survey involving 474 respondents (from business enterprise sector, public research institutes and individual experts)

  5. SURVEY PROCEDURES The evaluation questions/criteria: • knowledge of the respondent • innovation level of a particular thesis • importance of development (of a particular thesis) for Slovenia • prospects for accomplishment of the thesis within the period of the next 10-15 years • development stage • possibilities for Slovenia for assuring one of the leading positions (within a particular thesis) with regard to its R&D stage • possibilities for Slovenia for assuring one of the leading positions (within a particular thesis) with regard to the organisational transformation (business model) • possibilities for Slovenia for assuring one of the leading positions (within a particular thesis) with regard to the economic use in terms of new products/services • economy’s preparedness and willingness to invest in a particular technological area

  6. PROBLEMS ENCOUNTERED • TF is not a part of the decission-making process (institutional separation) • TF stakeholders are not enough prepared for the technological breakthroughs or technology disruptions • Small critical mass of experts in some areas • Inclusion of politicians, lawyers, media, NGO’s (besides scientists and engineers)

  7. RESULTS AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS - 1 • identification of preliminary technological theses within main thematic areas, for example in ICT: • intelligence in next generations networks • new transport methods and protocols • methodology and test methods for fast software development without errors and object technologies • system security and reliability • broadband systems and convergence of communication systems • bioelectronics • interactive telecommunication services and advanced for interfaces users • intelligent microsystems in one chip • scientific and technical translation systems • optoelectronics and high definition (resolution) displays

  8. RESULTS AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS - 2 • continuation of dialogue between experts in public research and private business sectors • analytical background for preparation of calls for technology programmes and for applied research projects • follow-up activities (2. and 3. round of Delphi approach) • closer co-operation among ministries and agencies (Agency for Technology, Agency for Scientific research, Agency for Entrepreneurship and FDI)

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