1. TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT IN PRE-ACCESSION COUNTRIES Djuro KUTLAČA, PhD Science and Technology Policy Research Centre of the “Mihajlo Pupin” Institute 11000 Belgrade, Volgina 15, Serbia and Montenegro; Tel/Fax:+381(0)11 2774-452; E-mail: dkutlaca@labtel.imp.bg.ac.yu , and FaM – Faculty of Management 21000 Novi Sad, Vase Stajića 6, Serbia and Montenegro; Tel: +381(0)21 451863; +381(0)21 451671/104 Fax: +381(0)21 526254 e-mail: kutlaca@famns.edu.yu

2. TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT IN PRE-ACCESSION COUNTRIES • NEED & RELEVANCE: • Technology foresight (TF) is methodology used for identification of future needs in economy and society in order to make right, as much as possible, allocation of available R&D resources in country. • TF is widely used, in developed countries, but in majority of developing and undeveloped countries it remain mystery although these countries desperately needs selective approach and wise suggestions what and how to do research and technology development (RTD) which will integrate limited national resources. • Without TF and usually with trial and error planning approach, catching-up process last longer, wastes money and human efforts.

3. TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT IN PRE-ACCESSION COUNTRIES • SCALE OF AMBITION & CRITICAL MASS: • Best practice approach - introducing TF methodology in Balkan countries, as a tool for development of NIS and as a process, which will help integration of Balkan countries into ERA (European Research Area ). • This comprises analysis of different TF approaches, used by OECD/EU member countries. • One of the main outcomes of this analysis should be proposal of TF methodology, modified and adapted to contributing countries. • Full cooperation with authorities, researchers and TF experts from relevant EU member countries is precondition for successful realization of this phase

4. TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT IN PRE-ACCESSION COUNTRIES • SCALE OF AMBITION & CRITICAL MASS: • Identification of the fields of particular interest for future development of the Balkan economies and societies - where RTD activities could make substantial contribution, based on domestic resources and desirable cooperation with partners within EU. • Main condition for realization of this phase is adoption of TF methodology by responsible country's authorities, therefore, as high level policy issue. • EU should be involved in negotiation and preparation phase. Results of this phase must be: • thorough analysis of country's human and other resources, • highly reduced set of national developmental priorities, probability of their realization is most reliable, • foreseen of future national development path, which is based on the presumption of sooner, as much as possible, integration into EU and permanent cooperation with countries in region and other EU member countries;

5. TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT IN PRE-ACCESSION COUNTRIES • SCALE OF AMBITION & CRITICAL MASS: • Diffusion of TF processes into society as precondition for democratization of decision-making process in country's NIS. • Parallel with previous phase, intensive promotion of TF principles, philosophy and way of thinking and perception of future development should take place in RTD community, but also in other relevant socio-economic segments in contributing countries. • This phase should be treated as an important part of democratization processes in those countries, in which decision-making process in RTD sector must involve not only largest part of RTD community as possible, but also other segments of society, which could be affected by RTD activities. Awareness of the size and strength of the existing resources and information of RTD activities effects and achievements must become available to all people, without restrictions and mystifications.

6. TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT IN PRE-ACCESSION COUNTRIES • INTEGRATION: • Regional approach: • (a) implementation of particular methodological instruments, better suited for some regions, • (b) involvement of regional RTD institutions and individuals and public authorities, • (c) Formation of national TF findings as a compromised summation of regional priorities rather than centralized approach which is usually without bases in real life circumstances. • Educational approach • Because of absence of TF activities in contributing countries, project team should be instructed and supported by TF experts from relevant EU member countries, as well as education of RTD community will take place during the project realization.

7. TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT IN PRE-ACCESSION COUNTRIES • INTEGRATION: • Sectoral and/or panel approach is the way how particular TF activities should be organized for analysis of country's potential and future needs, as well as the way for involvement of key participants in TF exercises. • International dimension either as joint project for contributing countries, but also as project were experts and institutions from EU member countries and Commissions authorities must take serious part.

8. TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT IN PRE-ACCESSION COUNTRIES Why?

10. Total Patent Applications

11. Resident Patent Applications

12. Non-Resident Patent Applications

29. Absorptive Capacities Source: Dj.Kutlaca, after S.Radosevic

30. R&D Capacities Source: Dj.Kutlaca, after S.Radosevic

31. Case – “Mihajlo Pupin” Institute

32. Case – “Mihajlo Pupin” Institute

33. R&D systems:

35. [Meske, 1998]

36. NIS Concept of Technopolis 2000 modified and extended by S.Kuhlmann [EC, 2003a]