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NOAA/ESRL/GSD/AMB

26 th Conference on Severe Local Storms 06 November 2012. Recent and Future Advancements in Convective-Scale Storm Prediction with the High -Resolution Rapid Refresh ( HRRR) Forecast System. NOAA/ESRL/GSD/AMB

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NOAA/ESRL/GSD/AMB

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  1. 26th Conference on Severe Local Storms 06 November 2012 Recent and Future Advancements in Convective-Scale Storm Prediction with the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) Forecast System NOAA/ESRL/GSD/AMB Curtis Alexander, David Dowell, Steve Weygandt, Stan Benjamin, Tanya Smirnova, Ming Hu, Patrick Hofmann, Eric James, John Brown, and Brian Jamison

  2. Hourly Updated NWP Models 13km Rapid Refresh (RAP) (mesoscale) Replaced RUC at NCEP 05/01/12 WRF, GSI, RUC features 13km RUC (mesoscale) 3km HRRR (storm-scale) High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Experimental 3km nest inside RAP, hourly 15-h fcst AMS 26th SLS Conf High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 06 Nov 2012

  3. Radar Reflectivity Data Assimilation Radar Observations (WSR-88D) Reflectivity = SUM(Rain, Snow, Hail, etc…) Not a direct observation of individual hydrometeors and distributions Model Forecasts (WRF-ARW) Reflectivity = Diagnostic variable ESTIMATE Hydrometeors are prognostic variables in microphysics scheme(s) Reflectivity observation type does not correspond to a state variable Options: Specification of hydrometeors using some assumptions Use implicit condensate formation as a model forcing function Combination of A and B Others AMS 26th SLS Conf High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 06 Nov 2012

  4. Radar Reflectivity Data Assimilation • Latent heating (LH) estimated from radar observed condensate (3-dimensional) • Applied during forward step of DFI within 13-km model forecast (RAP) • If outside radar coverage • use existing model LH • If observed reflectivity ≤ 0 dBZ • set LH = 0 to suppress convection or precipitation • If observed reflectivity > 0 dBZ • Replace model LH with value derived from obs reflectivity • Don’t apply in planetary boundary layer (PBL) • Radar-derived LH applied over forward DFI period • LH rate based on 10 min. convective time-scale • (we have evaluated 5 min, 20 min, and 30 min) AMS 26th SLS Conf High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 06 Nov 2012

  5. HourlyHRRRInitialization from RAP 13z 14z 15z 13 km RAP Obs Obs Obs GSI 3D-VAR GSI 3D-VAR GSI 3D-VAR HM Obs HM Obs HM Obs Cloud Anx Cloud Anx Cloud Anx 1 hr fcst 1 hr fcst Refl Obs Refl Obs Refl Obs Digital Filter Digital Filter Digital Filter 18 hr fcst 18 hr fcst 18 hr fcst 3-km Interp 3-km Interp 3-km Interp 3 km HRRR 15 hr fcst 15 hr fcst 15 hr fcst

  6. RAP HRRR RADAR Reflectivity 00z init 00z 12 Aug 2011 RAP HRRR no radar Convergence Cross-Section

  7. RAP HRRR RADAR Reflectivity +1h fcst 01z 12 Aug 2011 RAP HRRR no radar Convergence Cross-Section

  8. Radar Reflectivity Verification Eastern US, Reflectivity > 25 dBZ 11-21 August 2011 CSI 13 km CSI 40 km HRRR radar RAP radar HRRR radar RAP radar HRRR no radar RAP no radar HRRR no radar RAP no radar • 3km HRRR forecasts improve upon RAP 13km forecasts, especially at coarser scales much better upscaled skill • Radar DDFI adds skill at both 13km and 3km AMS 26th SLS Conf High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 06 Nov 2012

  9. Experiment #0: DDFI at 3 km 13 km RAP 13z 14z 15z Obs Obs Obs GSI 3D-VAR GSI 3D-VAR GSI 3D-VAR HM Obs HM Obs HM Obs Cloud Anx Cloud Anx Cloud Anx 1 hr fcst 1 hr fcst Refl Obs Refl Obs Refl Obs Digital Filter Digital Filter Digital Filter 18 hr fcst 18 hr fcst 18 hr fcst 3-km Interp 3-km Interp 3-km Interp 3 km HRRR Refl Obs Refl Obs Refl Obs Digital Filter Digital Filter Digital Filter 15 hr fcst 15 hr fcst 15 hr fcst

  10. HRRR Reflectivity Verification DDFI in 13-km RAP (parent model) AND in 3-km HRRR Eastern US, Reflectivity > 25 dBZ 14-24 July 2010 BIAS 03 km CSI 40 km Optimal 2x Latent heating rate in RAP 1x Latent heating rate in RAP 1/3x Latent heating rate in RAP 1x Latent heating in RR and HRRR 2x Latent heating rate in RAP 1x Latent heating rate in RAP 1/3x Latent heating rate in RAP 1x Latent heating in RR and HRRR Application of DDFI at both scales results in spurious convection Significant loss of skill AMS 26th SLS Conf High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 06 Nov 2012

  11. Experiment #1: Cycled Refl at 3 km 13 km RAP 13z 14z 15z Obs Obs Obs GSI 3D-VAR GSI 3D-VAR GSI 3D-VAR HM Obs HM Obs HM Obs Cloud Anx Cloud Anx Cloud Anx 1 hr fcst 1 hr fcst Refl Obs Refl Obs Refl Obs Digital Filter Digital Filter Digital Filter 18 hr fcst 18 hr fcst 18 hr fcst 3-km Interp 3 km HRRR 1 hr fcst 15 hr fcst 3-km Interp Refl Obs

  12. Experiment #1: LH Specification Temperature Tendency (i.e. LH) = f(Observed Reflectivity) LH specified from reflectivity observations in four 15-min periods The observations are valid at the end of each 15-min period 1-hr older mesoscale observations Latency reduced to ~1 hr NO digital filtering -60 -45 -30 -15 0 Observed 3-D Radar Reflectivity Time (min) Equation for LH = f(dBZ)? -60 -45 -30 -15 0 Model Pre-Forecast Time (min) AMS 26th SLS Conf High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 06 Nov 2012

  13. Experiment #1: LH Specification Multiple options for weighting LH specification vs model LH Two approaches including: 100% specification for the entire pre-forecast hour and (b) Time-varying with linear ramp down to 0% specification at 1 hr Option (b) permits more “free model” behavior for additional DA Experiment 1b “Ramp” Experiment 1a “Fixed” 0 1 1 Observed Radar Reflectivity (3-D) Based Latent Heating Weight Weight Model Microphysics Latent Heating 0 0 -60 -45 -30 -15 0 -60 -45 -30 -15 0 Model Pre-Forecast Time (min) Model Pre-Forecast Time (min) AMS 26th SLS Conf High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 06 Nov 2012

  14. Obs 0000 UTC11 June 2011 0-h fcstwithout 3-kmradar DA 0-h fcstwith 3-kmradar DA (fixed) 0-h fcstwith 3-kmradar DA (ramp) Benefit from pre-forecast 3-km model integration

  15. Obs 0100 UTC11 June 2011 1-h fcstwithout 3-kmradar DA 1-h fcstwith 3-kmradar DA (fixed) 1-h fcstwith 3-kmradar DA (ramp) Convective systems more mature even by 1-hr

  16. HRRR Reflectivity Verification 3-day retrospective period June 2011 Forecasts every 2 hours > 25 dBZ Composite Reflectivity Eastern half of US With 3-km fixed radar DA With 3-km ramp radar DA Without 3-km radar DA Bias = 1.0 Upscaled to 40-km grid Native 3-km grid Greatly improved CSI and BIAS between 0-1 fcst hr Benefit persists until 4 hrs Very similar skill at longer lead times

  17. HRRR Reflectivity Verification 14-day retrospective period June 2011 (160 runs) Forecasts every 2 hours > 25 dBZ Composite Reflectivity Eastern half of US With 3-km ramp radar DA Without 3-km radar DA Bias = 1.0 Upscaled to 40-km grid Native 3-km grid Greatly improved CSI and BIAS between 0-1 fcst hr Benefit persists until 4 hrs Very similar skill at longer lead times

  18. Experiment #2: Full-Cycling at 3 km 13z 14z 15z 3 km HRRR 15 hr fcst 15 hr fcst 15 hr fcst Refl Obs Refl Obs GSI 3D-VAR GSI 3D-VAR GSI 3D-VAR Obs 1 hr fcst 1 hr fcst Obs Obs Cloud Anx Cloud Anx Cloud Anx HM Obs HM Obs HM Obs AMS 26th SLS Conf High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 06 Nov 2012

  19. 0-h fcstwithout 3-kmradar DA Obs 1800 UTC29 May 2011 0-h fcstwith fully cycled 3-kmDA 0-h fcstwith 3-kmradar DA (ramp) Benefit from pre-forecast 3-km model integration

  20. 6-h fcstwithout 3-kmradar DA Obs 0000 UTC30 May 2011 6-h fcstwith fully cycled 3-kmDA 6-h fcstwith 3-kmradar DA (ramp) Fully Cycled 3-km DA shows improved structures

  21. HRRR Reflectivity Verification 1-day retrospective period May 2011 (6 runs) Forecasts every 2 hours > 25 dBZ Composite Reflectivity Eastern half of US With fully cycle 3-km DA With 3-km ramp radar DA Without 3-km radar DA Native 3-km grid Upscaled to 40-km grid Bias = 1.0 Small sample size Fully-cycled 3-km DA appears promising Runtime for 3-km DA is O(20 min) AMS 26th SLS Conf High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 06 Nov 2012

  22. Experiment #3: Partial-Cycling at 3km 13z 14z 15z 13 km RAP 1 hr fcst 3-km Interp 3 km HRRR 15 hr fcst 15 hr fcst Refl Obs Refl Obs GSI 3D-VAR GSI 3D-VAR GSI 3D-VAR 1 hr fcst 1 hr fcst Obs Obs Obs Cloud Anx Cloud Anx Cloud Anx HM Obs HM Obs HM Obs

  23. 3-km HRRR Products AMS 26th SLS Conf High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 06 Nov 2012

  24. Time-lagged Ensemble Forecasts valid 21-22z 27 April 2011 Forecasts valid 22-23z 27 April 2011 10-11 hr fcst 11-12 hr fcst HRRR 11z Init 09-10 hr fcst 10-11 hr fcst HRRR 12z Init 08-09 hr fcst 09-10 hr fcst HRRR 13z Init Spatial radius 45 km Time radius 1 hr UH threshold 25 m2/s2 All six forecasts combined to form probabilities valid 22z 27 April 2011

  25. Example: 27 April 2011 1630z SPC Tornado Probability 13z + 09hr fcst Valid 22z 27 April 2011 Valid 1630-1200 UTC 28 Apr 27 April 2011 Storm Reports Valid 1200-1200 UTC 28 Apr Tornadic Storm Probability (%) Tornado = Red Dots GSD Program Review High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 13 March 2012

  26. Example: 27 April 2011 13z + 09hr fcst Valid 22z 27 April 2011 Observed Reflectivity 22z 27 April 27 April 2011 Storm Reports Valid 1200-1200 UTC 28 Apr Tornadic Storm Probability (%) Reflectivity (dBZ) Tornado = Red Dots GSD Program Review High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 13 March 2012

  27. Example: 22 May 2011 13z + 11hr fcst Valid 00z 23 May 2011 1300z SPC Tornado Probability 22 May 2011 Storm Reports Tornado = Red Dots Tornadic Storm Probability (%) AMS 26th SLS Conf High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 06 Nov 2012

  28. Example: 22 May 2011 13z + 11hr fcst Valid 00z 23 May 2011 Observed Reflectivity 00z 23 May 22 May 2011 Storm Reports Tornadic Storm Probability (%) Reflectivity (dBZ) Tornado = Red Dots AMS 26th SLS Conf High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 06 Nov 2012

  29. HRRR Case Studies 19z 27 Apr 2011 NSSL mosaic HRRR 13z + 6 hr fcst GSD Program Review High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 13 March 2012

  30. HRRR Case Studies 20z 27 Apr 2011 NSSL mosaic HRRR 13z + 7hr fcst GSD Program Review High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 13 March 2012

  31. HRRR Case Studies 21z 27 Apr 2011 NSSL mosaic Tuscaloosa-Birmingham tornadic supercell HRRR 13z + 8hr fcst GSD Program Review High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 13 March 2012

  32. HRRR Case Studies 22z 27 Apr 2011 NSSL mosaic Tuscaloosa-Birmingham tornadic supercell HRRR 13z + 9hr fcst GSD Program Review High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 13 March 2012

  33. HRRR Case Studies 22z 27 Apr 2011 NSSL mosaic Tuscaloosa-Birmingham tornadic supercell HRRR 13z + 9hr fcst GSD Program Review High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 13 March 2012

  34. HRRR Case Studies 23z 27 Apr 2011 NSSL mosaic Tuscaloosa-Birmingham tornadic supercell HRRR 13z + 10hr fcst GSD Program Review High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 13 March 2012

  35. HRRR Transition to NCEP • Current – 1 computer running HRRR • NOAA/ESRL – Boulder • Current reliability: 97% for last 12h months (allowing up to 3h gaps) • 2012-14 – 2 computers running HRRR – interim solution • Boulder – computer 1 • Fairmont, WV – computer 2 • Expected reliability to increase further to 98.5-99% via coordination of downtimes for Boulder vs. Fairmont computers • 2015 – NCEP running HRRR • NOAA/NCEP computing budget – will allow no increase before 2015 • Conclusion: Interim HRRR computing for 2012-14 on 2 sites to provide “real-time experimental” HRRR from NOAA for NWS, FAA, DOE/energy users AMS 26th SLS Conf High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 06 Nov 2012

  36. Summary and Plans • Moist bias reduced in 2012 RAP and HRRR • Reduced false alarms, lower precipitation bias • GSI enhancements and WRF upgrade to v3.3.1 • Reflectivity diagnostic consistent with microphysics • Science: Focus on 3-km assimilation for 2013 • 3-km variational analysis • 3-km non-variational cloud analysis • 3-km radar reflectivity data assimilation • Technical: Reduced latency for 2013 (2-3 hrs now) • Approximate 1-hr reduction in execution time (1-2 hrs) • Faster post-processing with parallelization • Direct GRIB2 generation AMS 26th SLS Conf High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 06 Nov 2012

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