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Managed Instability: The NATO-Russia Strategic Relationship Thomas Frear

This article assesses the NATO-Russia strategic relationship, highlighting the fundamental differences in interpretation of international law and norms. It examines the roles of nuclear weapons in the Ukraine crisis and provides an overview of the good and bad news surrounding arms control agreements. The article also discusses military encounters and the need for a more developed Euro-Atlantic playbook to avoid unintended escalation.

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Managed Instability: The NATO-Russia Strategic Relationship Thomas Frear

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  1. Managed Instability: The NATO-Russia Strategic Relationship Thomas Frear European Leadership Network

  2. Reassessment of the Relationship • Fundamental differences in interpretation of international law and norms • Nuclear weapons have played large implicit and explicit roles throughout the Ukraine crisis

  3. The Good News • New START • On track to meet 2018 numbers of deployed warheads and delivery systems (but Russian numbers worrying) • Verification mechanisms remain fully functional and fully utilised • INF (for now: non-compliance charges) • Treaty on Open Skies • Surveillance flights still taking place – crucial confidence building measure • Turkey-Russia rift threatens this process

  4. The Bad News • Russian rejection of New START expansion • INF challenges • Russian withdrawal from Nuclear Security Summit process • Shuttering of NATO-Russia Council

  5. Bad News Continued • NSNW and dual use systems Military encounters, large portion involve strategic aviation Russian air-launched cruise missile demonstration, 18/11/15

  6. Prospects for the Future • Strategic relationship cannot be viewed in isolation – Action must be incremental • New START • Dual-capable systems must be addressed more thoroughly • Playbook of Euro-Atlantic not well enough developed – risk of unintended escalation • Memorandum of Understanding would reduce risk: Better environment for strategic talks • NSNW issue must continue to be raised

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