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Modeling Framework for Freshwater and Marine Habitat Evaluations

Explore the SHIRAZ modeling framework, developed for the Muckelshoot Tribe in WA, to assess ESA recovery planning for salmon. Understand the integration of habitat variables, life history stages, and the Beverton-Holt Model for productivity and capacity analysis. Discover key attributes and assumptions related to freshwater and marine survival, habitat variables, and interventions.

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Modeling Framework for Freshwater and Marine Habitat Evaluations

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Presentation Transcript

  1. Missing collaborator

  2. Conceptual Overview Land use & landscape processes affect habitat Land Use Landscape Processes Freshwater Habitat Freshwater habitat affects productivity & capacity SHIRAZ Biological Response

  3. The SHIRAZ model • Developed for Muckelshoot Tribe in WA to evaluate ESA recovery planning for salmon • Uses flexible life history, with reach by reach specification of habitat characteristics • Basic structure can be simplified and adapted to meet various needs (i.e. it’s a framework) • Built with Visual Basic & integrates with Excel

  4. Alternative life histories • Spawners • Adults • Spawners • Eggs • Fry • First winter residents • Smolts • Ocean residents • Adults

  5. Relate life history to habitat Stage 1 Habitat Stage 2 Habitat Stage 3

  6. Multistage Beverton-Holt Model (Mousalli & Hilborn 1986) Ns≡ individuals alive at stage s p ≡ max. survival rate from s s+1 ≡ “productivity” c ≡ max. N producible ats+1 ≡ “capacity”

  7. Key Attributes In general • Freshwater survival driven by relationships between habitat, p, &c • c determined by quantity of habitat • p determined by quality of habitat Also assume • Freshwater survival is density-dependent • Marine survival is density-independent

  8. Habitat Variables • Inherent “hard-wired” • spawning area • rearing area • % fines • % impervious • Generic • Increase or decrease c & p around a “reference” level • Multiplier specified by a general quadratic relationship • Based on difference between present state and reference Multiplier = exp[f1(state – ref) + f2(state – ref)2]

  9. Example of Habitat Relationship

  10. Changing habitat variables 1) Underlying trend (i.e. annual increase or decrease) Hmax trend>0 trend<0 0 2) Intervention (i.e. bulk addition or removal) Hmax (+) (-) 0 Time

  11. Other model features Harvest strategies Hatchery influence Ocean survival

  12. Integration with PRISM Land Use Landscape Processes PRISM Freshwater Habitat SHIRAZ Biological Response

  13. Linking landscape to life history Stage 1 Climate FW Habitat Stage 2 Ocean Habitat Hydrology Stage 3 Land use Landscape Processes

  14. Current status • Programming interactive improvements • Researching habitat-fish relationships • Researching hydrology-habitat relationships

  15. Moving Forward • Choose watershed (Snohomish or Puyallip/White?) • Add variable hydrology inputs • Allow for various “what if” scenarios

  16. Stream flow % fines Fry survival Precipitation Stream flow % fines Example scenario Ambient Decrease Increase ?

  17. Ocean regime shifts • Evaluation of alternative harvest strategies should be robust to uncertainty about future ocean changes • May want to include known ocean changes based on historical data

  18. SHIRAZSummary • It’s a modeling framework • Uses flexible life history • Spatially explicit habitat characteristics • Basic structure can be simplified and adapted

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