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Hans-Jörg Isemer, IBS, isemer@gkss.de

Examples of German and Interational Programmes in the Field of Global Water Cycle Hans-Jörg Isemer GKSS Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH International BALTEX Secretariat Germany. GLOWA – A German Programme funded by BMBF DEKLIM – A German Programme funded by BMBF BALTEX – A CSE of GEWEX.

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Hans-Jörg Isemer, IBS, isemer@gkss.de

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  1. Examples of German and Interational Programmes in the Field of Global Water Cycle Hans-Jörg Isemer GKSS Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH International BALTEX SecretariatGermany GLOWA – A German Programme funded by BMBF DEKLIM – A German Programme funded by BMBF BALTEX – A CSE of GEWEX www.glowa.orgwww.deklim.dewww.gkss.de/baltex Brussels Info Day FP6, 9 July 2004 Hans-Jörg Isemer, IBS, isemer@gkss.de

  2. GLOWA Global Change in the Hydrological Cycle A Programme funded by the German Research Ministry BMBF The aim of GLOWA is to develop simulation-tools and instruments which will allow to develop and to realize strategies for sustainable and future-oriented water management at regional level (river basins of approx. 100.000 km²), while taking into account global environmental changes and the socioeconomic framework conditions. www.glowa.org Brussels Info Day FP6, 9 July 2004 Hans-Jörg Isemer, IBS, isemer@gkss.de

  3. Scientific Core Themes: • Natural variability of precipitation, variations caused by human activities and their effect on the hydrological cycl • Interactions between the hydrological cycle, thebiosphere and land use • Water availability and conflicting water uses implemented through 5 major international cluster projects Brussels Info Day FP6, 9 July 2004 Hans-Jörg Isemer, IBS, isemer@gkss.de

  4. GLOWA Projects Integrative Techniques, Scenarios and Strategies for the Future of Water in the Upper Danube Basin Development and utilization of the integrated decision support system DANUBIA to investigate ways of sustainable future water use. www.glowa-danube.de Brussels Info Day FP6, 9 July 2004 Hans-Jörg Isemer, IBS, isemer@gkss.de

  5. GLOWA Projects Investigation Area: Elbe River Basin Development of integrated strategies on the sustainable management of water availability problems and water use conflicts arising from Global Change, and of related environmental and socio-economic problems in the Elbe Basin. www.glowa-elbe.de Brussels Info Day FP6, 9 July 2004 Hans-Jörg Isemer, IBS, isemer@gkss.de

  6. GLOWA Projects Investigation Area: Jordan River Basin Adressing vulnerability of Water Resources in Eastern Mediterranean Ecosystems due to Climate Change – An Integrated Approach to Sustainable Management www.glowa-jordan-river.de Brussels Info Day FP6, 9 July 2004 Hans-Jörg Isemer, IBS, isemer@gkss.de

  7. GLOWA Projects Investigation Areas: Ouémé Basin (Benin)and Drâa Basin (Morocco) An integrated approach to the efficient management of scarce water resources in West Africa www.impetus.uni-koeln.de Brussels Info Day FP6, 9 July 2004 Hans-Jörg Isemer, IBS, isemer@gkss.de

  8. GLOWA Projects Investigation Area: Volta River Basin - Analysis of the physical and socio-economic determinants of hydrologic cycles, - Development of a scientifically sound Decision Support System (DSS) for the assessment, - sustainable use and develop- ment of water resources in the Volta Basin. www.glowa-volta.de Brussels Info Day FP6, 9 July 2004 Hans-Jörg Isemer, IBS, isemer@gkss.de

  9. www.glowa.org GLOWA Global Change in the Hydrological Cycle A Programme funded by the German Research Ministry BMBF Funding Period: 2001 – 2008 (divided in 3 phases) Funding: ~ 8 mill Euro per year GLOWA contributes to: - Global Water System Project (GWSP) of ESSP (WCRP,...) - Hydrology for the Environment, Life and Policy (HELP) of UNESCO Brussels Info Day FP6, 9 July 2004 Hans-Jörg Isemer, IBS, isemer@gkss.de

  10. German Climate Research Programme Funded by the German Research Ministry BMBF General Objectives: - To improve the understanding of the climate system and of how it can be influenced by humankind. - To reduce uncertainties in analysis and forecasting. - To derive strategies for dealing with climate change (adaptation and mitigation). Brussels Info Day FP6, 9 July 2004 Hans-Jörg Isemer, IBS, isemer@gkss.de

  11. German contributions to BALTEX (The Baltic Sea Experiment) 4 Major Areas of Research Paleoclimate Research Regional Process Studies in the Baltic Sea Area Climate Variability and Predictability Climate Impact Research Brussels Info Day FP6, 9 July 2004 Hans-Jörg Isemer, IBS, isemer@gkss.de

  12. Regional Process Studies in the Baltic Sea Area Major Objective: To contribute to understanding and modelling of the influence of global climate change on water and energy cyle components in the climate system of a continental-scale catchment – the Baltic Sea basin 8 national Project Clusters or Projects Funding period: 2001 – 2004 (2005, 2006) Total funding: > 8 mill Euro Speaker: Dr Daniela Jacob, MPI Hamburg, Germany www.deklim.de Brussels Info Day FP6, 9 July 2004 Hans-Jörg Isemer, IBS, isemer@gkss.de

  13. Regional Process Studies in the Baltic Sea Area Accurate areal precipitation measurements over land and sea Regional evaporation at grid/pixel scale over heterogeneous land surfaces Soil frost and snow metamorphism simulations for the BALTEX region Hyperspectral satellite data analysis over land surfaces for climate modeling applications Influence of nitrogen and carbon fluxes on the water and energy budget of the terrestrial biosphere in the Baltic Sea drainage basin Baltic Sea water and energy cycle study Development and validation of a coupled model system in the Baltic Region Integrated Baltic Sea environmental study: Analysis and Simulation of Hydrological and Ecological variability in the last 1000 years Brussels Info Day FP6, 9 July 2004 Hans-Jörg Isemer, IBS, isemer@gkss.de

  14. BALTEX is a Continental-scale Experiment of GEWEX CSEs Brussels Info Day FP6, 9 July 2004 Hans-Jörg Isemer, IBS, isemer@gkss.de

  15. BALTEX Region Basin: 2.14 Mill. Km2 Baltic Sea: 440 000 Km2 14 countries Variable climate and topography Hans-Jörg Isemer, IBS, isemer@gkss.de

  16. BALTEX Phase I 1993 - 2003

  17. BALTEX Phase II (2003 – 2012) Physical science has made sufficient progress to allow for the application of the knowledge constructed during BALTEX Phase I. Lack of complete knowledge must be dealt with by making the remaining uncertainties explicit. It should not prevent from applying the available knowledge This does not imply that all problems are already solved, but that uncertainties have been reduced considerably by BALTEX.

  18. Objectives of BALTEX Phase II (2003-2012) 1 Better understanding of the energy and water cycles over the Baltic Sea basin

  19. Objectives of BALTEX Phase II (2003-2012) 1 Better understanding of the energy and water cycles over the Baltic Sea basin 2 Analysis of climate variability and change since 1800, and provision of regional climate projections over the Baltic Sea basin for the 21st century

  20. Analysis of past Climate Variability and Provision of Future Climate Projections (1800-2100) Variations of the mean surface temperature in Sweden (from Hans Alexandersson, SMHI) Maximum sea ice extent in the Baltic Sea 1880 – 2002 (from FIMR, Finland) Total annual river runoff to the Baltic Sea 1921 – 2002 (from BHDC and SMHI)

  21. Climate projections for 2071 – 2100 (PRUDENCE): Change in winter precipitation differs! HadAM3H A2 ECHAM4/OPYC3 A2

  22. Objectives of BALTEX Phase II (2003-2012) 1 Better understanding of the energy and water cycles over the Baltic Sea basin 2 Analysis of climate variability and change since 1800, and provision of regional climate projections over the Baltic Sea basin for the 21st century 3 Provision of improved tools for water management, with an emphasis on more accurate forecasts of extreme events and long-term changes

  23. Improved tools for water managements, with an emphasis on more accurate forecasts of extreme events and long-term changes • To develop further and apply coupled atmospheric-ocean-hydrological models for improved assessments • To apply different modelling systems to assess climate variability and extremes • To explicitly take account of the use of ground and surface water resources in studies of future risk of water shortage and extreme events

  24. Objectives of BALTEX Phase II (2003-2012) 1 Better understanding of the energy and water cycles over the Baltic Sea basin 2 Analysis of climate variability and change since 1800, and provision of regional climate projections over the Baltic Sea basin for the 21st century 3 Provision of improved tools for water management, with an emphasis on more accurate forecasts of extreme events and long-term changes 4 Gradual extension of BALTEX methodologies to air and water quality studies

  25. Gradual extension of BALTEX methodologies to air and water quality studies • To address pollution and dispersion modelling • Inclusion of the nutrient-carbon cycles • To use remote sensing and flux measuring technique of environmental components • To engage in field experiments that address environmental issues

  26. Objectives of BALTEX Phase II (2003-2012) 1 Better understanding of the energy and water cycles over the Baltic Sea basin 2 Analysis of climate variability and change since 1800, and provision of regional climate projections over the Baltic Sea basin for the 21st century 3 Provision of improved tools for water management, with an emphasis on more accurate forecasts of extreme events and long-term changes 4 Gradual extension of BALTEX methodologies to air and water quality studies 5 Strengthened interaction with decision-makers, with emphasis on global change impact assessments

  27. Strengthened interaction with decision-makers, with emphasis on global change impact assessments • Effects on society (e.g. tourism, agriculture, trafic, energy supply, water availability…) • Regional climate change • Infrastructure adaptation • Sea level variability and change estimates • Forecasting of floods, snow pack and hydropower potential • Reduction of the eutrophication of the Baltic Sea • Groundwater changes caused by changed water cycle

  28. Objectives of BALTEX Phase II (2003-2012) 1 Better understanding of the energy and water cycles over the Baltic Sea basin 2 Analysis of climate variability and change since 1800, and provision of regional climate projections over the Baltic Sea basin for the 21st century 3 Provision of improved tools for water management, with an emphasis on more accurate forecasts of extreme events and long-term changes 4 Gradual extension of BALTEX methodologies to air and water quality studies 5 Strengthened interaction with decision-makers, with emphasis on global change impact assessments 6 Education and outreach at the international level

  29. Fourth Study Conference on BALTEX 24 - 28 May 2004 Gudhjem, Bornholm, Denmark

  30. Fourth Study Conference on BALTEXGudhjem, Bornholm, Denmark, 24 - 28 May 2004 Some Statistics: Participants: 112 Papers: 114 (78 oral, 36 posters) Authors: 213 Countries: 18 Multi-Institution Papers: 39 (35%) Multi-National Papers: 24 (21%) BALTEX Phase II Papers : 35 (32%)

  31. Future river discharge?

  32. www.glowa.org www.deklim.de www.gkss.de/baltex Thank you ! Brussels Info Day FP6, 9 July 2004 Hans-Jörg Isemer, IBS, isemer@gkss.de

  33. Brussels Info Day FP6, 9 July 2004 Hans-Jörg Isemer, IBS, isemer@gkss.de

  34. Brussels Info Day FP6, 9 July 2004 Hans-Jörg Isemer, IBS, isemer@gkss.de

  35. Brussels Info Day FP6, 9 July 2004 Hans-Jörg Isemer, IBS, isemer@gkss.de

  36. Brussels Info Day FP6, 9 July 2004 Hans-Jörg Isemer, IBS, isemer@gkss.de

  37. Brussels Info Day FP6, 9 July 2004 Hans-Jörg Isemer, IBS, isemer@gkss.de

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