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China Pacific – Key Meat Trade Trends & Issues: Fall ‘09-2010

China Pacific – Key Meat Trade Trends & Issues: Fall ‘09-2010. Beef market recovery in Korea China pork outlook & market access Rise in Greater China beef imports & US access Increased US access & beef market turbulence in Taiwan Ensuring smooth US pork access in Taiwan

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China Pacific – Key Meat Trade Trends & Issues: Fall ‘09-2010

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  1. China Pacific – Key Meat Trade Trends & Issues: Fall ‘09-2010 • Beef market recovery in Korea • China pork outlook & market access • Rise in Greater China beef imports & US access • Increased US access & beef market turbulence in Taiwan • Ensuring smooth US pork access in Taiwan • Potential expanded US beef access in HK • Expanding US beef access to Indonesia • Rising pork import dependency in Philippines • Expanding US pork exports to Australia

  2. Key Regional Economic Trends • Economies and trade recovering • Appreciating currencies vis-à-vis US$/RMB (esp. Yen, Won, A$, NZ$) • Strong Growth in China lifts region • Rebounding trade, but China is growing market share of regional exports • Stimulus package / loan growth • Global need for China rebalancing • Appearance of Asset Bubbles (HK, Korea, China): when to end the stimulus? • US vs. China influence in the region

  3. US Dollar Decline Aids Competitiveness 10-year view of the dollar, Oct.1999-Oct. 2009 (monthly, period average, last data point end of period) against a basket of currencies Need market access to leverage currency weakness Year Source: Laffer Associates, WSJ

  4. China & US Live Hog Prices 2003-2009(8) US Dollar Equivalent Price US$/cwt. Implied pork subsidy level @ RMB 1.7/Kg. Corn Year

  5. Debt to GDP Ratio (%) % 48-52% PRC estimate includes off budget debts of local governments, bad loans of state asset management companies & unfunded pension liabilities. Source : SCMP Graphic

  6. China's Hog Operations Get Larger Number of market hogs sold per year Number of Live Hog Raisers 80104750 1577645 542014 83731 30053 6164 2840 1803 50 Forecast: Production from “scale” enterprises will rise to 56% * Scale Hog Farm =>50 Live hogs

  7. China/HK : Monthly Total Pork Imports: 2006-2009 Metric Tons (‘000) 2009 Pork Purchases Still Historically High 2008 2009 2007 2006 Year

  8. China : Monthly Pork Imports By Supplying Country / Region Metric tons (‘000) H1N1 Ban Year * Direct Imports / excludes HK

  9. HK : Monthly Pork Imports By Supplying Country / Region Metric Tons (‘000) Year

  10. China : Estimated Beef Imports Metric Tons (‘000) Year Beef and V-Meat exports to China, Vietnam & HK: Australia, Canada, EU-15, Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, India, and the U.S.

  11. Observations of China's Beef Industry (August, 2009) • Unlike pork production, cattle processing has been consistently unprofitable since 2002. • 85-90% of beef production is from small, local facilities. • A small % of total beef production enters commercial channels. • Plants are currently operating far below capacity. • Carcass utilization & quality is low. • During 1st half of '09, Greater China is 4th largest beef import region after U.S., Russia & Japan

  12. Snow Dragon Beef Feedlot, Dalian PRC

  13. Kerchin In-Plant Beef Supermarket, Inner Mongolia

  14. US Beef Politics & The Public KOREA • Used as anti-government platform against ruling party • Mass public support • No KOL support for US beef • Intense media attention focused on conflict & “pressure” aspects • Deeply scarred public • Protest involves anti-American sentiments TAIWAN • Used as anti-government platform against ruling party • Anti-US beef sentiments by some in ruling party • Public support (to date) tepid • Dissenting voices & debate from KOL • Intense media attention focused on conflict & “pressure” aspects • Public senses political angle

  15. Taiwan Welcomes US BEEF

  16. Taiwan: MEF Response & Plan • USMEF disseminated US beef safety info. before the Taiwan Govt. announcement. • Respond directly & publicly to erroneous reporting. • Provide detailed scientific information on US beef safety to trade and end-users. • Encourage stakeholders (end-users) to continue to feature US beef (e.g. provide COO labeling.) • Provide detailed scientific information to key Govt. food safety experts. • Undertake risk communications utilizing regional experts.

  17. Rising Taiwan Imports Of US Pork

  18. Indonesia’s Increasing Beef Imports Metric Tons (’000) Head (‘000)

  19. Philippines : Imports of Pork & Poultry Import Volume (Tons) US$/Kg

  20. Australia Quarterly Pork Production & Imports Metric Tons (’000) Declining production and growing imports Year Source: ABS (Prod.)

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