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Where should Society Invest?

Impossible Win-Win Futures - Part 2: Evaluation of Science and Technology Movements Nick Bardsley School of Agriculture, Policy and Development. Where should Society Invest?. Biochar Wave Power Offshore wind Tidal Power Onshore wind Smart Grids Nuclear Passiv Haus

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Where should Society Invest?

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  1. Impossible Win-Win Futures - Part 2: Evaluation of Science and Technology MovementsNick BardsleySchool of Agriculture, Policy and Development

  2. Where should Society Invest? • Biochar Wave Power • Offshore wind Tidal Power • Onshore wind Smart Grids • Nuclear Passiv Haus • Biofuels Zero Till • Organic Farming Solar PV • GM Biotechnology Conc. Solar Power

  3. Ecology: Cooperative Structure Without Conscious Orchestration

  4. Ecology: Cooperative Structure Without Conscious Orchestration E D A C B D F Reference: Ulanowicz, R. (1997). Ecology: the Ascendent Perspective. Ch3.

  5. Science and Technology Movements: Spontaneous Order and Orchestration Coalitions form around particular technologies – via both contrived and spontaneous mechanisms … The Public The Media Universities Industry, Finance Politicians Civil society … the coalitions influence public opinion, perception and the course of scientific activity critics given "outgroup" status

  6. How Can the Public Tell if Public Perception is Being Distorted? • Granfalloon = coalition formed by ordinary processes + defective underpinnings • To identify it, assess the underpinnings …

  7. Biofuels: Giampietro & Mayumi 2009 High quality primary energy source (conventional fossil fuels): Output = 1.07 Net supply = 1 EU directive: 10% liquid fuel by 2020: Italy: 30% of labour supply; 2.3 x agricultural land currently in production

  8. Rationality • Procedural / Substantive • Given the difficulty of engaging with specialist literature, criteria of procedural rationality are important for generalists • Especially if they cannot easily be mimicked

  9. Evidence and Information Sources Peer Reviewed Journal Articles Academic monographs Investigative journalism Data from Government Agencies Data collected by Corporations Reports of Government Agencies Reports of NGOs, Charities, Think Tanks Reports of consultants Reports of Corporations Press articles ….

  10. Role of Peer-Reviewed Literature in Institutional Process of Science Recent, physics-centric, philosophy of science: One observation in ideal circumstances, judged bona fide by peer-review Replicated independently, judged bona fide by peer review 1 & 2 Necessary and sufficient to establish a result: counts as a result Corroboration plays similar role in non-experimental sciences More generally a quality control on academic discourse

  11. Consistency with Process: (Scientists') Press Articles

  12. Classic Example of Distorting Coalition • Tobacco’s War on Medical Science • Hired politically libertarian ace physicists • To publish articles emphasising uncertainties in medical science • Press articles • Letters and opinion pieces in journals • Funded eccentric research e.g. on alternative causes of lung cancer

  13. Consistency with Due Process: Treatment of Inconvenient Studies “Pusztai affair”: Study on GM feeding trials published in the Lancet in 1999 reported adverse health effects on rats Melchett (2010): No studies have sought to replicate this trial

  14. Substantive: Neglect of Available Wisdom • ‘the Biofuel Delusion’ • Neglected paradigm: energetics • Application of energetics to biofuels clearly unsupportive of the technology • Most researchers “don’t go there” • Lesson generalisable within renewables field?

  15. Substantive: Quality of Narrative Irrelevant whether the output / input ratio of energy carriers in bioethanol production is 0.9/1, 1.1/1 or 1.5/1 To be a useful energy source in a non-fossil-fuel-economy requires at least 5/1 (Giampietro & Mayumi)

  16. Science is illuminating, but … Which studies have not been done? Which questions have not been addressed? Which values are at work?

  17. Flashpoints Academic conflict: missing studies marginalised perspectives neglect of available wisdom Legal cases: actual conspiracies Scandals in the media

  18. General Problem For "Civic Epistemology" in Environmental Risk Assessment • Science is not value neutral • A key value is purity of the discipline • Use of low-aplha levels in statistical tests (10%, 5%, 1% conventional levels) • Keeps out spurious results at a cost of likelihood of missing genuine ones • Conflict with precautionary principle • See work of Kristin Shrader-Frechette

  19. Towards a “Toolkit” / checklist for Civic Epistemology for Sustainability • Application of energetics • Identification of other marginalised perspectives • Precautionary principle applied or ignored? • Is peer-reviewed, corroborated, evidence given due weight? • Where are the 'flashpoints', what can be learned from them? • Identification of missing work & information • "Too big to fail"? • Silver bullet or component of transformed society?

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