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China’s Economy and the NPC

China’s Economy and the NPC. Albert Keidel Senior Fellow, The Atlantic Council of the United States AKeidel@Keidel.us. March 17, 2010 International Economics Program The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Washington, DC. Annual GDP Growth and Inflation, 1980-2009.

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China’s Economy and the NPC

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  1. China’s Economy and the NPC Albert Keidel Senior Fellow, The Atlantic Council of the United States AKeidel@Keidel.us March 17, 2010 International Economics Program The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Washington, DC

  2. Annual GDP Growth and Inflation, 1980-2009

  3. Quarterly GDP Growth, Year-on-Year, 2008-09

  4. Quarter-on-Quarter, Seasonally Adjusted

  5. PBoC’s Seasonal Adjustments Differ Some

  6. Even if Quarter-on-Quarter settles at 8% …

  7. … headline Year-on-Year growth looks too high.

  8. … and PBoC estimates make it look even higher.

  9. Quarterly Trade, 2009-2010

  10. Monthly Trade and Balances, 2009-2010 Feb.

  11. Growth: Domestic & Foreign Demand, 2008-09

  12. Quarterly GDP component growth and growth contributions

  13. Month-on-month CPI inflation is up … To an annualized 12-percent rate. How bad could this be? Maybe not bad.

  14. Is the RMB too low? … or too high?! After the euro fell in July, 2008 China decided not to let the RMB depreciate against the US$

  15. In economics -- this identity is always true … … but, which causes which? Foreign Surplus = Foreign Savings It is fashionable to say that the savings causes the surplus … but in China’s case, this is doubtful.

  16. Let’s focus on exports and GDP growth … Foreign Surplus = Foreign Savings Exports – Imports = GDP – Domestic Demand Does GDP growth push up exports? … … or, does demand for exports pull up GDP?

  17. Current Account Imbalances for the U.S., China and Rest of the World

  18. U.S. Consumer Credit and Current Account Balance

  19. Was this caused by the exchange rate?

  20. Where were the Surpluses? China is there too, but came to the party late …

  21. The End Thank you AKeidel@keidel.us

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