1. Green Economy and China’s Development Transition (Plan C) Zhu Dajian Institute for Sustainability and Governance Tongji University

2. Three points and messages • Why: How big will the impact of China’s development be in next decades and particularly in next 10 years ?China’s green transition is a must. • What: What is the meaning of China’s green transition? China should decouple its development from resource use and environmental impact in terms of Plan C. • How: What are ways for China to go towards green development? China has some key decoupling potentials in three fields such as new-type urbanization, new-type industrialization and new-type consumerism.

3. 1.Why: Conflict between economy and environment supply of life supporting resources declining Supply capacity Green economy consumption of life supporting resources rising Economic demand

4. 1950-2050:Three stages of New China Environmental Impact Brown Economy China 3.0 China 2.0 Green Economy China 1.0 2010 2050 1950 1980

5. Environment Impact of Economic Growth • I=Impact: Resource consumption and pollution impact • P=Population:How many people will we have ? • A=Affluence:What’s the consumption level? • T=Technology and Management: How fast and big do we consume ? I = PAT

6. 1.1 Population: How many people China will have • China has about 1.26 billion people in 2000 and 1.34 in 2010 • Increasing about 8-10 million persons per year • 1.4 billion till 2020 in China (1.1 times of the year 2000) • 10 million persons for urbanization per year • About 60% urbanization rate till 2020 in China

7. 2030：the peak year for China’s population （UN）

8. 1.2 Affluence: Growth in terms of GDP per capita • Beginning of Reform and Opening: $250 per person (A year growth rate is about 9-10% since then) • 1981-1990: $500 per capita in 1990 • 1991-2000: $800 per capita in 2000 • 2001-2010: $4000 per capita in 2010 • 2011-2020: $8000 per person in 2020 (about 10 times of the year 2000) • 2021-2050: above $20000 per person in 2050 (about 25 times of the year 2000)

9. GDP per capita (PPP) comparison: US and China United States GPD/Capita: $47,000 GDP Growth: 1.3% China GDP/Capita: $6,000 GDP Growth: 9.8%

10. In terms of PPP, China will surpass US in 25 years? Per Capita Income

11. Economic size of China in 2050

12. Economic Scale of China in History

13. 1.3 Technology: Material intensity and resource productivity

14. China’s Technology Efficiency （ 2000）

15. 1.4 Impact: How big for China in the next decades?(According to the formula: I=PAT,when T=1)

16. China coal power plants are increasing 11.5 32% 239% 249% 51% Europe, number of 500MW equivalent coal plants 2005 2030 519 394 China, number of 500MW equivalent coal plants 2005 2030 US, number of 500MW equivalent coal plants 614 2082 2005 2030 India, number of 500MW equivalent coal plants 2005 2030 1008 668 502 144 Source:World Energy Outlook 2006

18. 2. What: China’s green transition and Plan C

19. 2.1 Green Economy and Decoupling (UNEP,2012）

20. Economic growth within ecological limits $$$ $ Waste products Resources Waste Waste Waste products Resources $$$ $ Only a crazy or an economist would believe that an unlimited growth will keep on within a limited planet. ——Kenneth Boulding Waste

22. To decouple development with resource consumption and environment impact Increase of well-being Decoupling Decrease of natural cost Green economy Browneconomy

23. Development curves of green economy Qualityof life Economicgrowth Use of nature

24. To live better beyond more GDP consumption well-being rich throughput poor poverty spring dematerialization wedge equity clamp lifestyle wedge dematerialization wedge poverty gap Conventional mode Dematerialization and sustainable production Im-materialization and sustainable lifestyle

25. The concept of decoupling （UNEP，2011）

26. Potentials and challenges for green transition

27. Key issues for China’s Plan C • Model：Smart growth instead of de-growth ( towards growth within the limit of natural capitals) • Innovation: technology innovation with social innovation (to strengthen a social-technology integrated policy system • Capacity building: top-down initiative and bottom-up involvement (from government initiatives to collaboration governance)

28. 2.2 Model: Smart growth (Plan C) instead of degrowth (Plan B)

29. (1)HDI/EF: US , EU or China model? US level EU level Leapfrogging China SD

30. poor medium OK good Source: http://www.footprintnetwork.org and http://hdr.undp.org/en/statistics/data/hdi2008

31. Three pillars for China’s green development Economic growth (↑): ≥ World Average Wealth GDP per capita China’s green future Environmental impact (↓): ≤ OECD Average Impact Ecofootprint and CO2 per capita Social Development(↑↑): ≥ World Average HDI Education years and life years per capita

32. Targets of Green Economy of China

33. (2)CO2: Three scenarios for China Developed Countries High Energy Locked Development GHG emissions per capita Leapfrog-development China Low Carbon World World average emission 2020 2050 Time

34. GDP,Energy and CO2 in China

36. Carbon threshold for HDI is decreasing（1t CO2=0.27tC)

37. (3)Direction:smart growth vs de-growth Quality of life Eco footprint threshold space Plan C： Short stock Plan B： Overshot

38. Plan B Plan C Plan A

39. Basic needs is a must for developing countries 5000 10000-20000

40. China GDP New Chinese Consumerism Green Economy（RP） = Eco-footprint New Western Consumerism West New consumerism: developed vs. developing

41. Absolute decoupling vs relative decoupling Growth of economy Decoupling Factor Growth of resource use Relative decoupling Growth of environmental impact Time 1 Decrease of resource use Absolute decoupling Decrease of environmental impact

42. Absolute decoupling only at low economic growth rates EU15 EU27 Source: Social Ecology DB; averages 2000-2005

43. 2.3 Innovation: Technology progress vs behavior change

44. Four factors determine CO2 emission CO2 emission CO2 emission/energy

45. Efficiency improvement is not enough for decoupling

46. China’s scenarios based on IPAT

47. ????? all 5 previous global growth periods were able to access cheap primary resources 18-19 March 2009 47

48. Mobility models from Shanghai Expo 2010 Incremental Car energy label: 10-20% Car sharing system: factor 4 II I Eco-effectiveness （Consumption） Eco-efficiency （Production） III IV Car with new energy: factor 2 Low transport-need city: Factor 10 Radical

49. System innovation instead of gradual improvement

50. Incremental improvement vs system innovation System innovation Factor20 Eco-efficiency Product replacement Factor10 Product improvement Process improvement Factor4 Factor2 Within sectors Cross sectors