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From Brave New Unwired World to the Ever Smarter World —————————————

From Brave New Unwired World to the Ever Smarter World ————————————— Opportunities for Internet Innovators North American IPv6 Global Summit June 25, 2003 By Alex Lightman Cal–(IT) 2 Scholar CEO, Chairman, Cofounder of Charmed Technology Conference Chairman, Global IPv6 Summit.

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From Brave New Unwired World to the Ever Smarter World —————————————

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  1. From Brave New Unwired World to the Ever Smarter World ————————————— Opportunities for Internet Innovators North American IPv6 Global Summit June 25, 2003 By Alex Lightman Cal–(IT)2 Scholar CEO, Chairman, Cofounder of Charmed Technology Conference Chairman, Global IPv6 Summit

  2. June, 2003: A Month of Milestones • Invention of Ethernet, Bob Metcalfe, Xerox PARC, Palo Alto, June, 1973 • TCP/IP (IPv4), Stanford University, Palo Alto, June, 1973 • 100th Birthday of George Orwell, June 25, 2003 (Big Brother)

  3. Opening Thought • Our primary objectives in implementing IPv6 are to improve customer experiences while also improving civilization for all humanity

  4. Improve experience: Getting 4 relationships/customer “Bank of America experienced churn.” “We were stuck at 13 million customers because 3 million would join but 3 million would leave each year.” “We found that if and when people had four or more different relationships with B of A (checking, savings, credit card, bill paying, auto loan, mortgage) then our retention went UP and our churn for these people went way down.”

  5. Service Provider Revenues $$$ Total Revenue Old Sources New Sources Time

  6. Cambrian Explosion Bacteria  Adaptive Radiation/Chaos/ Pseudo-Random Search Evolution Insects Invertebrates Complex Environmental Interaction Selection/Emergence/ Phase Space Collapse/ MEST Collapse Development Multicellularity Discovered Vertebrates 570 mya. 35 body plans emerged immediately after. No new body plans since! Only new brain plans, built on top of the body plans (homeobox gene duplication). Body/brain plans: “eukaryotic multicell. evolutionary developmental substrates.”

  7. What is a Commercial Explosion? • Rapid growth of a new product / service • Deep penetration of market • Spawns new, supporting industry • Transforms the economy • Examples: automobiles, PCs

  8. Drivers Of Commercial Explosions • Satisfies a compelling consumer need • Possibly one they didn’t know they had • Leads to deep penetration of the market • Requires convergence of: • Technologies • Government policy • Standards • Companies via partnerships and alliances • Ultimate winners represent best trade-off along a number of dimensions • Simple metrics not easy to define early on • Transportation: why did the gasoline powered automobile win?

  9. Economics Powered by Convergence: • Convergence of devices and innovations: clock, axle, wheel, lever, odometer, steering, speedometer, better tires, brakes, navigation systems, CDs…) with a dozen or more improvements every year. • Convergence of networks (oil industry consolidation, self service stations, national highways, cheap maps, driver’s licensing, parts, used cars, repairs, warranties, AAA…) with improvements. • Many parallels to communications industry. Success is about the convergence of multiple device capabilities and of networks.

  10. Wanted: IPv6 Prosumer Innovators “We need people who create supply and demand for new IPv6 services”. Ministry of Science and Technology, Madrid IPv6 Summit. • George Washington Carver (100 uses for peanut, entire dinner, SW) • Thomas Edison (over 1,050 patents, direct current, AC, and hundreds of way to use it) • Larry Smarr (from 100 scientists with SC access to 30,000, Mosaic/IE, Apache). The importance of CREATIVITY and VISION!

  11. Ten Opportunities Made Possible by IPv6 Adoption 1 • The basis for an explosion of evolutionary experiments, followed by robust survivors. • Massive increase in feedback loops (output changes input), assisting civilization. • Historical opportunity to increase subscriptions, and thus service exports. • Million fold increase in sensors (and data…) • Commercial explosion, keep public interest.

  12. Ten Opportunities Made Possible by IPv6 Adoption 1 6. Give every person thousands of IPv6 addressed nanodocs, reduce cancer, aging. 7. Head start in 5 way race to be 1st in 4G and win a multitrillion dollar grand prize. 8. Augmented memory (hyper documentation of one’s life, uploading) and augmented reality (info overlays). 9. Endowing users with superpowers. 10. Computational collective intelligence.

  13. Feedback Loops: The Ultimate Multiplier • Feedback loops allow for learning outputs to change behavior, prices, decisions… • IPv6 adoption fosters HUGE feedback loops. • Advanced civilizations are based on an ever expanding quality, quantity and diversity of feedback loops. IPv6 supports this growth. • Societies with the most sophisticated ecosystems of feedback loops win in war and peace. IPv6 adoption will determine social progress, justice, and prosperity.

  14. Trade Deficit Feedback… Export Services! • Services: over 80% of US $11 T GDP. • Annual deficit of $500 B in goods (about one third oil, one third autos) • Annual surplus of $15 B in agriculture, $50 B in services • Biggest leverage: increase service exports from less than 1% to 5% of US services. • First Next Gen Cluster has opportunity to double GDP as service export and 4G hub.

  15. Microsoft’s advanced R & D discovery • Dan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R & D for Microsoft: “The most valuable thing we’ve learned is that in the future everything that costs over $25 except food will be connected to the Internet.” • IP + a pico radio could compliment, then embrace and extend, then replace, bar codes and RFID tags. • Gillette: just ordered 500,000 RFID tags. Razorblade sweeping.

  16. Sensor subscriptions very valuable! • Eric Frost: 30 measures of oil extraction allows doubling, from 35% to 70%, of recoverable oil from a given reservoir. • Will Recker: World Wide Wagon Train of 737 million to 1 billion vehicles that exchange information on the road ahead. • John Orcutt: From Buoys to MEN (Marine Environmental Networking). Weather prediction, climate change, government. • Articles are on http://www.calit2.net. Search site for “Alex Lightman”

  17. Subscribers (millions) 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 Mobile Internet 800 600 400 Fixed Internet 200 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 The Mobile High Performance InternetThe Next Boom, and the Next 4 Relationships Source: Ericsson

  18. Wireless Billing • Minute buckets • Pre-pay • By-the-packet • Micropayment • Wireless wallet • QoS (conversational, streaming, interactive, background) • Bundling • IDC: value of packet-based billing will rise from $94.6 million in 2001 to $855.7 million in 2005.

  19. The Mobile Internet is a Huge Opportunity Aspect Fixed Mobile • Users 2003 Fewer More • Cost of device More Less • Billings Cumbersome Easy • Micropayments Very difficult Built in • Willingness to pay Want for Free Assume it will cost

  20. Rules of Thumb for Wireless Profits • “Any technology sufficiently advanced is indistinguishable from magic” Arthur C. Clarke • MAGIC: Mobile Anytime Globally Integrated Customized (NTT DoCoMo) • PAIR: Personal Available Immediate Real time • 0-1-2-3: 0 manuals, 1 button to Internet, 2 seconds max delay, 3 keystrokes maxi to any svc • SMS messages set the pain threshold for billing (10 to 15 cents/message) so use grows

  21. Wireless Money: The 5 M’s • Movement: escaping the fixed place • Moment: expanding the concept of time • Me: extending myself and my community • Money: expending financial resources • Machines: empowering devices.

  22. Deeper Services • Movement: Mobility, Locality, Globality, Home Base, Positioning • Moment: Plan, Postpone, Fill Time, Catch Up, Multitask, Real Time • Me: Customized, Relevant, Community, Permission, Presence, Multisession (most powerful, relates to ‘cool’ self image) • Money: M-commerce, Micropayments, M - banking, M-wallet, M-advertising, Sponsorship • Machines: Telematics, Metering, Remote Access, Appliances, Robotics, Automation, Connecting with Anything and Everything

  23. Granularity: Ever Smarter Guide • Location aware pull information • Location aware pull information with location sensitive map • Location aware pull information with map and guidance • Preference based pull information with map and guidance • Preference based push information with map and guidance • Time sensitive push information with map and guidance • Preferences learning intelligent guide with map and guidance

  24. Adventures in Transparent Infrastructure • Broadband Internet Connection via Wireless Wi-Fi • Over 600 Access Points on the Campus • Year- Long “Living Laboratory” Experiment 2001-02 • 500 Computer Science & Engineering Undergraduates • 300 Entering UCSD Sixth College Students—Fall 2002 • Experiments with Geo-Location and Interactive Maps UC San Diego UC Irvine Cal-(IT)2 Team: Bill Griswold, Gabriele Wienhausen, UCSD; Rajesh Gupta, UCI

  25. The New World of Mobile Geolocation Source: Bill Griswold, CSE, UCSD

  26. Local Wi-Fi Can Be Linked With Wide Area Cellular Internet • First US Taste of 3G Cellular Internet • UCSD Jacobs School Antenna • Three Years Before Commercial • Linking to 802.11 Mobile “Bubble” • Tested on Campus CyberShuttle • You Can Ride it on Friday on the Tour!b Rooftop Qualcomm 1xEV Access Point Roberto Padovani, CTO Qualcomm www.calit2.net/news/2002/4-2-bbus.html

  27. Movement: Other Services • Launch soon and learn from feedback • Translation (typed in text, translate text and say the words, human interpreters, translate my speech) • Business Services • Fleet control (get right vehicle in right place, time) • CRM and the corporate portal (present only vital data on customer, calendar, FAQs) • Order entry system (Purchasing history) • Telehealth (patient monitoring devices, remote care, access to doctors • Synchronizing devices (Virtual PDA) • Employee (monitoring, bundle h/o, Vir Home Env)

  28. Moment: Making use of every second • Mobile Entertainment (esp. games) • Micro Movies and advertainment • Entertainment bundling (jokes, horoscopes, puzzles, games, cartoons, spoofs, trivia, voting) • Repackaging serial content (daily subscription, content archive, content fan club, ‘Hollycules’ to own or gift, viral marketing content) • Mobile information and infotainment (info push, news, premium news coverage, news partners) • Customized news, alerts (apartment finder) • Info pull (white and yellow pages, dictionaries, calendars, comparison shopper)

  29. Me Mobile: Extending Self, Community • Rich calls (enhancing voice with images, sounds) • Draw me the map/shared whiteboard) • Shared video image, shared original music • Games and rich call (taunting opponents) • Personalizing calls (custom ring and picture, Corporate Face Catalog, Look who’s calling, Personal publicity photo, image of topic) • Show me (remote eye, repairman, real estate) • Video calls • CRM (money rewards, dynamic location lock) • Messaging for love (Dating, SMS, MMS) • Communities (spreading message, chat)

  30. Mobile Money • M-Commerce (ticketing…look for lines) • Selling digital content (mass audience content that is already digital, know how in digital form) • Delivering digitally non digital content • Government fees, licenses, taxes • Tangible item purchase (vs. credit card, but on phone bill) • Mobile Advertising (mAd, NOT mAd spam, location based advertising at mass audience events, sports, ballet, church, movies) • Ads in music streaming, guaranteed listeners • Rewarding mAd/frequent viewer miles • Infovirus, call to action, “Smart mobs”, coupons, blue light. • M-banking, wiring money to mobile users phone

  31. Machine Services: The Internet Iceberg • Automobile Telematics (Car service and maintenance, car navigation, road advertisement requests, car security) • Car multitasking, games for kids in car • Service integration (Home Entertainment tells car what businesses you clicked on, streaming to PDA of MP3 on home computer, three degrees) • Remote views (inspections, Homeland security) • Remote control (home control, home alarm, industrial metering, traffic monitoring) • Law enforcement (speed trap, call criminal) • Feedback (customer surveys, auto check in)

  32. Exercise Was the First Wireless Monitoring Application

  33. As Our Bodies Move On-LineDigital Medicine Will Emerge • New Sensors—Video Pill • Battery, Light, & Video Camera • Images Transmitted to Hip Device • Next Step—Putting You On-Line! • Wireless Internet Transmission • Key Metabolic and Physical Variables • Model -- Dozens of Processors and 60 Sensors / Actuators Inside of our Cars • Post-Genomic Personalized Medicine • Combine Across Populations • Genetic Code • Digital Imaging • Body Data Flow • Use Powerful AI Data Mining www.givenimaging.com www.philometron.com

  34. Heart Rate BP Temp Blood Glucose Conceptual Framework for a Personal Medical Assistant WAN PAN Personal Medical Assistant - Multi-Network Gateway • Processor: • Sensor Data Analysis, • Monitoring, • Coding -Communicates With Monitoring Station Sensors • Sensor Data • Control Data • Local-area networking Medical Monitoring Station • Event Analysis • Data Shaping • Control Data Source: Sujit Dey. UCSD ECE

  35. Current and Potential Markets for Remote Patient Monitoring • Wellness • Fitness Monitoring • Obesity Epidemic • Ambulatory Hospital Patients • Cardiac Out Patients • Elder Care • Global Population of People Over 65, Will Increase 88% by 2025 • Clinical Trials • New Drug Discovery • Emergency Response • Natural Disasters • Homeland Security

  36. What is a SensorNet? • Sensors • Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,… • Sensor Platform • Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, … • Telecommunications Infrastructure • Wired, Wireless, Internet, … • Sensor Arrays • Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, … • Layered Software • Backend Data Systems

  37. Environmental SensorNets--Water and Climate Instrumentsin the Santa Margarita Ecological Reserve Source, Dan Cayan, UCSD SIO

  38. Integrate Remote Reconnaissance with Satellite Imagery and Ground SensorNets HOTLINKs for Damage Locations using GPS and Digital Photos on GIS Maria Feng UCI Civil & Environmental Engineering

  39. CermetSensor $ 10 $ 300,000 Putting Laboratories on a Chip Source: Greg McRae, MIT and ANL

  40. Schools in Los Angeles Unified School District PAMS (Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Station) SLAMS (State & Local Air Monitoring Stations) 11 PAMS/SLAMS Monitors in 2001 (CO, NO2, O3, SO2, PB, PM10) Can Schools Become a Source for Data Intensive Science? US EPA PAMS Sites California Air Resources Board Potential for Dramatic Increase in Coverage!

  41. Ad Hoc Mesh Wireless Distributed Sensor Network Source: Graviton Application Examples • Homeland Security • Emissions Monitoring • M2M Communications

  42. Multi-Sensor Data Fusion Control Rooms Will Integrate SensorNets with Legacy Data • Common Needs for Research or Emergency Response • Situational Awareness • Common Operational Picture • Local Data Warehouse with Remote Data Access • AI Data Mining of Distributed Databases • Spatial Data Analysis • Consequences Assessment Tool Set Image Source: Panoram Technologies

  43. 2-Way Telemedicine Control Room GPS Tracking High Bandwidth Transportation Assets With Mobile Internet Bubble Hot Zone Hospital #1 WMD Attack Prevailing wind Compromised Transportation Corridor First Responder PDAs Electronic record of field care Field Treatment Station Warm zone Mobile Bubbles Patient RF IDs Incident command center Transport station Hospital #2 CAL-(IT)2 WIISARD Scenario for Improving Emergency Medical Response Stadium Source: Dr. Leslie Lenert, UCSD SOM

  44. Data collection to knowledge synthesis, data mining Data  Information  Knowledge IPv6 will help us collect & mine usable information from massive amounts of data. Integrated technologies Sensors, computation, data management IPv6 will enable us to develop end-to-end applications which integrate ALL technologies. IPv6 Contributions to an Ever Smarter World

  45. Universal Access Location-independence, ubiquitous access to computing, data, resources IPv6 enables us to develop applications that can be initiated from anywhere at anytime Global-scale collaboration Collaboration tools, access, interoperability IPv6enables us to communicate, work, and recreate with people all over the world, even as we go nomadic and constantly mobile IPv6 Contributions to an Ever Smarter World

  46. Trends that will drive this decade • Shrinking computers • Cooper’s Law • Shifting from Hardware to software to services • Galaxy of Gadgets • AR and Milgram’s Continuum

  47. The Incredible Shrinking Computer

  48. The Borgs are Loose and Coming for You(New York Times, Oct., 1999) • BORGS ARE THE HARBINGERS OF 4G and use wearable computers all day, every day • TEXT BORGS: Thad Starner, REMEMBRANCE AGENT, a sort of onbody Google that searches and ranks each new input for relevance. • SOUND BORGS: Greg Priest Dorman, dyslexic sysadmin, uses CharmIT to do text to speech for all his messages, at 3 to 5 times normal rate. • VIDEO BORGS: Steve Mann has been wearing video cameras for over a decade of ‘souveillance’. Asks wife to pick fruit remotely & friends for location advice.

  49. Adopters of Wearable Computers Late majority 2 1 Early majority Early adopters Innovatos Time 2001 2002 Market Adoption • Innovators • Research Labs, Universities • Technophiles • Govt / Military • Early Adopters • Field Technicians • Medical Specialists • Stock Brokers • Early Majority • Gen Y • Upper / Middle Income Entertainment • People with Disabilities • Late Majority • Mobile workforce

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