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ESKOM Modern Network Master Planning Methodology, an approach to address network expansion & renewal needs due to higher economic growth and socio economic needs. Prepared by Marius du Preez, NETGroup In conjunction with Eskom Master Planning Methodology Work Group

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  1. ESKOM Modern Network Master Planning Methodology, an approach to address network expansion & renewal needs due to higher economic growth and socio economic needs Prepared by Marius du Preez, NETGroup In conjunction with Eskom Master Planning Methodology Work Group Presented by Ed Bunge, Eskom AMEU Convention October 2007

  2. “The objective of distribution planning is to provide an orderly and economic expansion of equipment and facilities to meet the utility’s future electricity demand with an acceptable level of reliability.” - H. Lee Willis

  3. Presentation Overview • Introduction • Power System Planning Horizons / Lead Times • Network Master Plan vs. Network Development Plan • Global Planning Methodologies • Generic steps to all Planning Methodologies • Planning Process Overview • Planning Study Objective and Review of Study Area • Gather Data / Information • Strategic Study • Electrification Planning • Load Forecast • Power Plant Refurbishment • Network Capability and Problem Statement • Identify and Evaluate Alternatives • Capital Plan • Economic / Financial Evaluation • Environmental Assessments • Eskom Guide

  4. Introduction Universal Access Plan (UAP) • 100% access to electricity by 2012 • need to accelerate pace of electrification to achieve target Other Drivers: • Accelerated and Shared Growth Initiative for SA (ASGISA) • additional capacity requirement • extensive refurbishment • increasing lead times • environmental assessments • servitude acquisition • procurement of equipment • CTAD audit findings Planning Methodology Document • a guideline for the compilation of NMP’s and NDP’s

  5. S e r v i Generation c e A Transmission r e a Sub - transmission S i Reticulation z e 2 5 15 20 Project Lead Time [years] Power System Planning Horizons / Lead Times

  6. Network Master Plan vs. Network Development Plan detail conceptual NMP uncertainty NDP 0 5 10 15 20 years

  7. Global Planning Methodologies Traditional Planning Methodology • Regulated Stable environment • Responsibilities and Mandate of Utility clear and controlled by government. • Demand predictable. • Assumptions easier and accurate. • More certainty Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) • Regulated Unstable environment • Cost to the customer never really featured in the final decision process Least Cost Planning (LCP) • Latter stages of Regulated Unstable environment • Includes value base techniques (cost to the customer) Value Based Planning • Liberalised wholesale markets • Minimises total cost – (utility & customer) • Indices: Unserved Energy (EUE) & Loss of Load Probability (LOLP)

  8. Generic steps to all Planning Methodologies Step Activity Description 1 Identify the problem (includes gathering & analysing data) Explicitly identify the range of application and its limits. Try to see the problem in terms of the goals and write it down. 2 Determine the goals This tells you where you are aiming to go. What goals are to be achieved? What is to be minimised? 3 Identify the alternatives What alternative solutions are available? This is a critical step & should be a group session. 4 Evaluate the alternatives Evaluate all the alternatives on a sound basis. 5 Select the best alternatives Select the alternative that best satisfies the goals with respect to the problem

  9. Planning Process Overview

  10. Planning Study Objective and Review of Study Area • Clear definition of study objectives • Trigger for planning review will determine the appropriate approach required • Requirements of study will dictate data needed • A NMP may span an entire FSA/CSA, • typically, a no. of interconnected Tx S/S supply areas

  11. Gather Data / Information • Obtainas much existing data and information as possible to support the study • Field visits may be required to verify network layout & equipment data • Typical data requirements include: • geographical background mapping data • network configuration, equipment & loading data • Metro / municipality / large customer data • other plans (electrification, refurbishment, environmental, etc) • operational / performance reports • existing standards and reports

  12. Strategic Study • Sub-component of GLF • Purpose - model population and economic growth geographical for 20yrs • Development & growth projections based on: • historic trends / local knowledge • potential/planned developments • existing planning documents (IDP’s, SDF’s) • Development Economists • develop economic model • sensitivity analysis

  13. Electrification Planning • National Government (DME) – targets and funding • Eskom - implementing agent • Electrification planning process: • Review electrification status quo • Determine of grid / off-grid supply areas • Prioritisation and phasing of electrification projects • Budgeting and allocation of funds • Stakeholders liaison • Rolling Electrification Plan

  14. Load Forecast • Determine electricity requirements of end-users • Crucial input to NMP & NDP studies • Input to Transmission Planning • For NMP • long-term strategic view on development • preferably use geo-spatial techniques • link to physical network load points

  15. Power Plant Refurbishment • Plant Section - Refurbishment Plan containing: • status of primary equipment • project recommendations • budget cost estimates • For NMP: • plant age, high-level condition assessment • estimate of remaining life • Estimate capital requirements

  16. Network Capability and Problem Statement • Assess quality of available data • highlight deficiencies for future correction • Develop adequate network models • Detailed networkanalysis • identify existing shortcomings • Clearly define nature of problems • coordinated, holistic approach

  17. Identify and Evaluate Alternatives • Identify all possible network solutions • Conduct technical & economic evaluations • Steady-State System Analysis • Contingency & Reliability Analysis • Network Alternatives and Scenarios • Technical Analysis & Technology Selection • Cost Alternatives • Economic Evaluation • Output - annually phased strengthening & network improvement proposals

  18. Capital Plan • Compile Capital Requirements Plan • NMP - 20 years • Refine cost estimates in more detail • preferred alternatives • phase over planning period • Eskom business categories: • Direct Customers • Strengthening • Reliability • Electrification • Refurbishment

  19. Economic / Financial Evaluation • Perform economic / financial analysis on recommended NMP or NDP • Assess economic / financial viability of overall plan • Outputs • 5yr / 20yr cash flow • Economic life cycle costs • Reliability / Customer Interuption Costs • financial indicators (MIRR & NPV) • financial impact on Eskom • tariff requirements • possible penalties

  20. Environmental Assessments • Promote sustainable development & protect environment • National Environmental Management Act (1998) • Environment Conservation Act (1989) • Objective = integrate environmental requirements into plans • SEA - environmental framework for strategic development • Assessments - conducted timeously • SEA’s • triggered by NMP • EIA’s • triggered by NDP

  21. PHEZU KOMKONO !!!

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