Project Overview and Update May 2, 2010

1. Strategies for Adapting to Climate Change in Rural Sub-Saharan Africa: Targeting the Most Vulnerable Project Overview and Update May 2, 2010

2. Attendees • Christoph Mueller, PIK • Gerald (Jerry) Nelson, IFPRI Page 2

3. MOTIVATION • Long-term changes in climate will disproportionately affect developing world • Effects of climate change vary across regions, farming and food systems, households, and individuals • Analysis must combine biophysical and socio-economic factors • Global • Regional • Local Page 3

4. Rainfed Maize Yield Changes Are Diverse2050 climate relative to 2000 climate NCAR GCM, A2 Scenario

5. Rainfed Maize Yield Changes Are Diverse2050 climate relative to 2000 climate CSIRO GCM, A2 Scenario

6. IMPACT’s Food Production Units (281 FPUs)

7. Climate Change Makes Food Price Increases Greater Greater price increases with climate change Prices increase without climate change Page 7

8. Climate Change Increases Childhood Malnutrition Without climate change, child malnutrition falls except in Sub Saharan Africa With climate change, child malnutrition increases everywhere Page 8

9. Adaptation Costs are over $7 billion per year • Required additional annual expenditure • Wetter NCAR scenario = US$7.1 billion • Drier CSIRO scenario = US$7.3 billion • Regional level • Sub-Saharan Africa - $3 billion (40% of the total), mainly for rural roads • South Asia - US$1.5 billion, research and irrigation efficiency • Latin America and Caribbean - US$1.2 billion per year, research • East Asia and the Pacific - $1 billion per year, research and irrigation efficiency Page 9

10. Outputs, year 2 and 3 • Strategies for adaptation policies in high level fora • Options for adaptation developed in member countries w/ natl. researchers and collaborators • Policy dialogue meetings in member countries to get insights on research in progress, identify communication channels to achieve maximum impact. • Identification of gaps in adaptation analysis and research needs identified in the policy dialogue meetings.

11. Selected outputs since last meeting • IFPRI Food Policy Report on costs of adaptation – included results for SSA • ZALF review of literature – published as IFPRI discussion paper • ZALF Tanzania household/farmer practice survey, presentations in May • Involvement in UNFCCC negotiations • Side event in Bonn, June 2009 • ARDD 1 focused on climate change and agriculture in Copenhagen • Side event in Bonn, June 2010 • ARDD2 planed in Cancun, December 4, 2010 Page 11

12. Planned outputs • PIK – Paper on hotspots of change, in process • ASARECA – review of NAPAs and PRSPs for ASARECA member countries – forthcoming as IFPRI discussion paper • FANRPAN – review of NAPAs and PRSPs for FANRPAN member countries in progress • Vulnerability assessments – draft template designed (see Kenya template) and process to identify country authors underway Page 12

13. Three ‘provocative’ theses • Our understanding of local climate change outcomes is bad • The best adaptation policies/programs today are • Good development policies that enhance widespread economic growth and productivity improvements • Global information sharing about climate responsiveness of today’s varieties • Identify climate-related research gaps Page 13