Securing Passenger Aircraft From Man-Portable Air Defense Systems (MANPADS) Vicki Bier, Uche Okpara and Natawan Teerapir

1. Securing Passenger Aircraft From Man-Portable Air Defense Systems (MANPADS)Vicki Bier, Uche Okpara and Natawan Teerapirak

2. What Are MANPADS? MANPADS are man-portable, shoulder-fired, surface-to-air missiles. They are usually equipped with a seeker, typically infra-red (IR) or ultra-violet (UV) or a combination of these. Examples: • SA-7 / Grail / Strella-2 • SA-14/ Gremlin / Strella-3 • SA-16 / Grimlet / Igla-1 • SA-18 / Grouse / Igla (Naming convention: US name / NATO name / Russian name)

3. SA-7 / Grail / Strella-2(US / NATO / Russian) • Maximum effective range: 5,500 m • Maximum effective altitude: 4,500 m • Maximum speed: 580 m/s • Guidance: Passive Infra-red (IR) homing device • Deployed worldwide

4. SA-14/ Gremlin / Strella-3(US / NATO / Russian) • Maximum effective range: 6,000 m • Maximum effective altitude: 6,000 m • Maximum speed: 600 m/s • Guidance: Passive Infra-red (IR) homing device • Deployed worldwide

5. SA-16 / Grimlet / Igla-1(US / NATO / Russian) • Maximum effective range: 5,000 m • Maximum altitude: 3,500m • Maximum speed: 2 Mach (approximately 660 m/s) • Guidance: passive 2-color IR and UV homing • Improvement on SA-7 • Deployed by CIS countries

6. SA-18 / Grouse / Igla(US / NATO / Russian) • Maximum effective range: 5,200 m • Maximum effective altitude: 3,500 m • Maximum speed: 2 Mach (approximately 660 m/s) • Guidance: Passive Infra-red (IR) homing device • Deployed worldwide

7. Why Focus On MANPADS? There are an estimated 500,000 MANPADS in the world today, many thousands of which are thought to be on the black market and therefore accessible to terrorists and other non-state actors. MANPADS are attractive to terrorists and insurgents because they are: • Lethal • Highly portable and concealable • Inexpensive • Relatively easy to use Within the past two years, MANPADS have been deployed against: • An Israeli civil airliner over Kenya • A DHL cargo craft over Iraq • A US Army Chinook helicopter and • An Air Force C-7 transport plane.

8. I w w c M c Lateral view Aerial view Key Question Given: A region I with center c An aircraft A with a flight trajectory from c to w A MANPAD system M positioned somewhere in region I What is the probability that a missile fired from M would hit A?

9. MANPAD Parameters HM : maximum height of missile fired from MANPAD system RM : maximum range of missile fired from MANPAD system PM : maximum kill probability of a MANPAD system when a missile is fired at a target A

10. Attacker Location Strategies • Uniform • Near Center • Normal Across Flight Path 1 2 3

11. Sensitivity Analysis – Base Case • RM = 5.5 km • HM = 4.5 km • CA = 10 km • γA = 2 • kA = 13 km • rI = 15.6 km • rS = 0.8 km • γP = 45 • kP = 6.4 km

12. Sensitivity Analysis - Algorithm • Choose a parameter to be varied, and determine the range within which it will be varied • Choose a value for Φa (angular direction of the aircraft trajectory, c-w); e.g. Φa= π • Set all other parameters to their base-case values • Choose a probability density function fM(m), for the attacker location • Divide the range of the parameter to be varied into R points • For each of the R points: • Generate N random attacker locations in the region of interest according to the chosen probability density function fM(m) • For each of the N points: • Select Q uniformly spaced points along the path c-w • Generate a vector of distances D = (D1, … , DQ) from m to c-w • Generate a vector of conditional probabilities P = (P1, … , PQ) • Compute • Estimate the expected value by averaging values obtained for

13. A detailed presentation is available to first responders, government agencies, other centers, and scientific organizations upon request.