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Quarterly Integrated Euro Area Accounts

ECB-RESTRICTED. FINAL. Quarterly Integrated Euro Area Accounts. Joint ECB NBRM Seminar on Statistics Skopje, 4 October 2013. Euro Area Accounts. Why: ECB as a key user of statistics What are the EAA? How: Integration of data sources Results + Uses Annexes:

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Quarterly Integrated Euro Area Accounts

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  1. ECB-RESTRICTED FINAL Gabriel QuirósHead of Macroeconomics Statistics Division European Central Bank Quarterly IntegratedEuro Area Accounts Joint ECB NBRM Seminar on StatisticsSkopje, 4 October 2013

  2. Euro Area Accounts • Why: ECB as a key user of statistics • What are the EAA? • How: Integration of data sources • Results + Uses Annexes: 1 New ECB Guideline: Changes from 2014 2 Additional examples of uses 3 Links to data and publications

  3. ECB as key user of European statistics An evidence-based decision-making requires a large amount of high quality European statistics Primary objective of price stability (annual increase in HICP of close but below 2% over the medium term) Governing Council takes monetary policy decisions based on an overall assessment of the risks to price stability Economic analysisfocusing on a wide range of economic and financial indicators (short to medium-term risks to price stability) Monetary analysis(medium to long-term trends in inflation) cross- checking Economic and financial information 4

  4. What are the EAA ? Synopsis of inputs + outputs National Financial Accounts National non-financial accounts Integrated Euro Area Accounts Financial Accounts Non-Financial Accounts Euro AreaBuilding blocks :- BoP- MFI- IF + FVC- ICPF- GFS Other : BoP-euro areaEuropean Institutions (ECB, ESM) Quarterly ECB Press Release on Economic and Financial Developments Quarterly Eurostat Press Releases on Household saving + Business Investment

  5. What are the EAA? Giving Indicators an Accounting Framework GDP M3 HH Consumption Gov Deficit Gov Debt

  6. Integrating data sources: National data and euro area building blocks The euro area accounts integrate a large number of different data sources • Non-financial sector accounts • Financial accounts: The ECB “MUFA” Guideline • Building blocks: • Balance of Payments (BoP) • MFI Balance Sheet Items (BSI) • Quarterly Financial Accounts for General Government (QFAGG) • …

  7. The MUFA Guideline and building blocks Monetary Union Financial Accounts (MUFA) are compiled by combining national data - coming through the ECB MUFA Guideline - and euro area financial building blocks Which criteria are followed when deciding the source for each cell in the matrix ? • Data reliability • User needs and preferences • Minimize horizontal imbalances • Future development of the accounts, in particular in terms of timeliness

  8. Data sources: National financial accounts and building blocks (BSI, BOP, QFAGG)

  9. Uses – some example: Enriching monetary analysis Financial investment by households Annual growth rate • Value of analysing M3 developments by institutional sector • Closer link between M3 holdings by households and price developments (but headline M3 still better predictor of turning-points) • Looking at M3 against total financial investment / broader portfolio of assets • Role of OFIs and ICPFs for financial intermediation & monetary analysis 1) Excluding money market fund shares. *) Percentage point contributions to annual growth of financial investment.

  10. Integrating real and financial perspectives(NFC accumulation accounts : financing and investment) • Bulk of capital formation financed internally (gross saving)* • Role of equity financing modest (except 2000-01) • Linked to financial investment / M&A • Resurgence of debt financing after consolidation • Reduction of debt financing in credit crisis Percentage of GDP, four-quarter moving sum * Internal financing (gross saving) includes retained earnings and consumption of fixed capital. It is broadly equivalent to earnings before depreciation but after taxes and dividend payments in business accounting.

  11. Changes in 2014: The new ECB MUFA Guideline New financial instrument and sub-sector details due to SNA 2008 and ESA 2010 • MUFA Guideline (quarterly), ESA TP (annual) and G-20 Financial accounts template are harmonised to a large degree Additional user needs for quarterly Euro Area Accounts • Publication of Euro Area Aggregates at t+90 => transmission of selected “supplementary” qFA data at t+85 (82) • Publication of national data => second transmission of detailed (revised) qFA at t+100 (97) • Other changes in volume and revaluations for all instruments • Whom-to-whom for securities (in addition to deposits and loans) (See Annex 1 for more details)

  12. Euro Area Accounts Overview Thank you for your attention! Any questions?

  13. Annex 1: New ECB Guideline: Changes from 2014

  14. Annex 2: Additional examples of uses- ESRB : Households’ debt-to-gross disposable income ratio Notes: Gross disposable income adjusted for the change in net equity of households and pension fund reserves.For Luxembourg, the first observation refers to 2008. For Bulgaria the last observation refers to 2010. For Cyprus, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Latvia, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia the last observation refers to 2011. Data for Malta and Croatia are not available.

  15. Net worth of households Source ECB/Eurostat

  16. Households gross disposable income Source ECB/Eurostat

  17. Annex 3: Where to find? ECB Website: Euro Area Accounts in Statistics : EAA Homepage SDW Tables and downloads • MOBU Tables: Integrated economic and financial accounts by institutional sector,  euro area non-financial accounts, households, non-financial corporations, insurance corporations and pension funds, and all euro area accounts time series • EAA Detailed Tables: Main indicators, integrated economic accounts, institutional sectors, and who-to whom detail • Country Tables : Euro area and other EU countries Press releases : EAA – press release Articles • MOBU Article 2007 November • MOBU Article 2011 October

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