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Economic and Housing Opportunities (ECHO) Assessment

This assessment focuses on the potential growth, fiscal benefits, and other advantages of transforming El Camino Real into the Grand Boulevard. It analyzes growth scenarios, potential benefits of infill development, and the physical implications of transformation.

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Economic and Housing Opportunities (ECHO) Assessment

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  1. Economic and Housing Opportunities (ECHO) Assessment Association of Bay Area Governments April 6, 2011

  2. Introduction Photo credit: Grand Boulevard Initiative

  3. The Grand Boulevard Initiative The Grand Boulevard Initiative is a collaboration of stakeholders united to achieve a shared vision for El Camino Real.

  4. The Grand Boulevard Vision

  5. The El Camino Real Corridor Opportunity • State Rte 82 • 43 miles, Daly City to Diridon Station in San Jose • Only major north-south arterial • Paralleled by BART and Caltrain lines • Most productive VTA and SamTrans bus service

  6. Realizing the Vision • “Coalition of the willing” • Multiple investors • Federal, state and local governments • Transportation agencies (SamTrans, VTA, C/CAG, MTC) • Business and development community • 19 cities in 2 counties • 14 cities, SM County and 7 agencies have adopted the Grand Boulevard Guiding Principles

  7. Economic and Housing Opportunities (ECHO) Assessment Purpose of the Assignment: Making the Case for Transformation of the Corridor into the Grand Boulevard Our Analysis: • Estimates of Potential Growth on the Corridor • Profile of Transformational Projects • Measure the Fiscal and Other Benefits of Transformation • Visualize and Study the Physical Implications of Transformation 

  8. Findings Photo credit: Grand Boulevard Initiative

  9. Corridor Growth Scenarios 2010-2035 Estimate Magnitude of Potential Change

  10. Summary of Growth Scenarios: Projected New Households and Jobs in 2035 These projections are pegged to outdated ABAG forecasts of regional growth

  11. The Corridor has Capacity to Accommodate Future Growth • Land capacity > amount of land required for infill • Can be achieved at a range of densities 20-25 DU/AC – 2+ stories, attached townhomes, underground parking 25-35 DU/AC – 3-4 stories, stacked attached townhomes, tuck-under parking 70-85 DU/AC – 6-8 stories, flats over structured parking/ground floor retail

  12. Fiscal Benefits of Infill Development ~ $330 million to $752 million in local tax revenues

  13. Conversion of Low-Performing Retail Sites to Higher Intensity Uses Can be Generate More Revenues

  14. Infrastructure and Service Costs Smart growth can lower infrastructure costs O&M Costs Vary • Economies of scale for some departments – Public Works, Engineering, etc. • Requires further analysis needed at the municipal level • Marginal vs. average costs Source: Calthorpe Associates; Strategic Economics

  15. Other Benefits of Transformation • Revitalization and value enhancement • Time and cost savings for households and employees • More stable communities • Provide a variety of housing types • Access to skilled labor force

  16. Physical Implications 4 transformed El Camino Real settings depicted with “Grand Boulevard” streetscapes Range of types shown are in accordance with local zoning & guidelines 2-3 story townhomes at ½ acre South San Francisco location 3-4 story stacked flats at ½ acre San Mateo location 4-5 story stacked flats with some ground floor retail at assembled 1+ acre Sunnyvale location 4-8 story stacked flats in multiple parcels at Downtown Redwood City location

  17. SIMILAR EL CAMINO REAL CONTEXT South SF Photo Credit: Google

  18. SIMILAR EL CAMINO REAL CONTEXT San Mateo Photo Credit: Google

  19. SIMILAR EL CAMINO REAL CONTEXT Sunnyvale Photo Credit: Google

  20. SIMILAR EL CAMINO REAL CONTEXT Redwood City Photo Credit: City of Redwood City

  21. Policy Implications Photo credit: Grand Boulevard Initiative

  22. Visual Character Must Change To Unlock Potential of the Grand Boulevard Transition from linear strip arterial to a pattern of centers and segments • Need to create an attractive environment for development Development projects that capture, maintain, and add value

  23. Implementation Issues

  24. Public and private stakeholders must work together to effect change

  25. ECHO Phase II Work: Implementation • TIGER II Grant to fund implementation study • In-depth look at major issues in 4 cities: • Removing barriers • Infrastructure needs assessment • Financing strategies at local and regional level

  26. Questions? Dena Belzer, PresidentStrategic Economics dbelzer@strategiceconomics.com

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