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Chapter Twenty-three

Chapter Twenty-three. Managing Risk on the Balance Sheet III: Interest Rate and Insolvency Risk. Interest Rate Risk Measurement. Repricing or funding gap

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Chapter Twenty-three

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  1. Chapter Twenty-three Managing Risk on the Balance Sheet III: Interest Rate and Insolvency Risk

  2. Interest Rate Risk Measurement • Repricing or funding gap • GAP: the difference between those assets whose interest rates will be repriced or changed over some future period (RSAs) and liabilities whose interest rates will be repriced or changed over some future period (RSLs) • Rate Sensitivity • the time to reprice an asset or liability • a measure of an FI’s exposure to interest rate changes in each maturity “bucket” • GAP can be computed for each of an FI’s maturity buckets

  3. Calculating GAP for a Maturity Bucket NIIi = (GAP)i Ri = (RSAi - RSLi) Ri where NIIi = change in net interest income in the ith maturity bucket GAPi = dollar size of the gap between the book value of rate-sensitive assets and rate- sensitive liabilities in maturity bucket i Ri = change in the level of interest rates impacting assets and liabilities in the ith maturity bucket

  4. Simple Bank Balance Sheet and Repricing Gap Assets Liabilities 1. Cash and due from $ 5 1. Two-year time deposits $ 40 2. Short-term consumer 50 2. Demand deposits 40 loans (1 yr. maturity) 3. Long-term consumer 25 3. Passbook Savings 30 loans (2 yr. maturity) 4. Three-month T-bills 30 4. Three-month CDs 40 5. Six-month T-notes 35 5. Three-month banker’s 20 acceptances 6. Three-year T-bonds 60 6. Six-month commercial 60 7. 10-yr. Fixed-rate mort. 20 7. One-year time deposits 20 8. 30-yr. Floating-rate m. 40 8. Equity capital (fixed) 20 9. Premises 5 $270 $270

  5. Weakness in the Repricing Model • Four major weaknesses • it ignores market value effects of interest rate changes • it ignores cash flow patterns within a maturity bucket • it fails to deal with the problem of rate-insensitive asset and liability cash flow runoffs and prepayments • it ignores cash flows from off-balance-sheet activities

  6. Duration Model Duration gap - a measure of overall interest rate risk exposure for an FI D = - % in market value of a security R(1 + R)

  7. Insolvency Risk Management • Net worth • a measure of an FI’s capital that is equal to the difference between the market value o its assets and the market value of its liabilities • Book Value • value of assets and liabilities based on their historical costs • Market value or mark-to-market value basis • balance sheet values that reflect current rather than historical prices

  8. Effects of Changes in Loan Values and Interest Rates on the Balance Sheet Assets Liabilities Base case Long-term securities $ 80 Short-term floating $ 90 Long-term bonds 20 Net worth 10 $100 $100 After major decline in value of loans Long-term securities $ 80 Liabilities $90 Long-term bonds 8 Net worth -2 $88 $88 After rise in interest rates Long-term securities $ 75 Liabilities $90 Long-term loans 17 Net worth 2 $92 $92

  9. The Book Value of Shares • The book value of capital usually comprises three components in banking • Par value of shares - the face value of the common shares issued by the FI time the number of shares outstanding • Surplus value of shares - the difference between the price the public paid for common shares and their par values • Retained earnings - the accumulated value of past profits not yet paid in dividends to shareholders • Book value of its capital = Par value + Surplus + Retained earnings

  10. The Discrepancy between the Market and Book Values of Equity • The degree to which the book value of an FI’s capital deviates from its true economic market value depends on a number of values • Interest Rate Volatility - the higher the interest rate, the greater the discrepancy • Examination and Enforcement - the more frequent the examinations and the stiffer the examiner’s standards, the smaller the discrepancy • Loan Trading - the more loans traded the easier to assess the true market value of the loan portfolio

  11. Calculating Discrepancy Between Book Values (BV) and Market Values (MV) MV = Market value of equity ownership in shares outstanding Number of shares Par value of equity + Surplus value + BV = Retained earnings + Loan loss reserves Number of shares Market-to-book ratio A ratio that shows the discrepancy between the stock market value of an FI’s equity and the book value of its equity

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