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Maritime Intermodal Transport Challenges in a Changing European and Global Environment

Maritime Intermodal Transport Challenges in a Changing European and Global Environment

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Maritime Intermodal Transport Challenges in a Changing European and Global Environment

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  1. Maritime Intermodal Transport Challengesin a Changing European and Global Environment Dr. Alfred Baird Head, Maritime Research Group

  2. Overview • Aims of maritime policy • Shipping market cycle • Trade growth • Environmental constraints • Regulatory framework • Industry consolidation (and scale) • Technological change • Modal shift imperative • Fuel costs • Conclusions

  3. Aims of Maritime Policy (a) Reduce Externalities (b) Promote Trade ab (c) Create Maritime Business a abc ac cb b c Source: Hoffmann, 2003

  4. The shipping market cycle OVERORDERING BY SPECULATORS/ BARGAINHUNTERS SHIP PRICES DROP EXCESS OF SHIPBUILDING CAPACITY YARDS REOPENED OR NEW YARDS CREATED

  5. Trade growth

  6. Annual world economic, container and transhipment growth rates, 1991-2004 Transhipment growth is 3 times that of GDP!

  7. Container port demand in north Europe to 2015 (Source: Drewry)

  8. Structural Factors influencing container ship capacity • The difference between supply and demand growth is due to 3 main structural factors: • Increasing trade imbalances • Increasing trade distances over sea • Reduced actual intake compared to nominal capacity • These factors mean that world fleet growth must be larger than world demand growth in order to cater for the transportation needs in the main export markets • Structural factor is between 2.8% and 3.8% (AP Moller)

  9. The rise in transhipment

  10. Container port demand for transhipment in north Europe, 2001-2015 (Source: Drewry)

  11. Estimated container transhipment by region, 2001

  12. NMC Goods Flow Study (NEA)

  13. Environmental constraints

  14. Expansion in major cityports?

  15. North European container terminal developments JaderWeserPort Hamburg Amsterdam Felixstowe Bremerhaven Bathside Bay Rotterdam London Gateway Flushing Antwerp Zeebrugge Southampton Le Havre

  16. New transhipment hub locations can reduce mainline ship deviation and feeder distance/cost

  17. Emissions • Pollution • CO2, SOX, NOX, Ballast water • 1.5% sulphur limit in Baltic Sea, North sea/Channel (from May 2006) • Emissions Abatement & Trading • Issues: Suppliers, Storage, Training, Expense • Reduced transport movement • Modal shift

  18. Regulatory framework

  19. Regulatory framework • International Maritime Organisation (IMO) • World Trade Organisation (WTO) • UNCTAD • European Marine Safety Agency (EMSA) • National and supra-national competition watchdogs • Gradual move towards global standards/controls

  20. Industry consolidation (and scale)

  21. Technological change

  22. Max Payload – Min Operating Cost Is the handbrake on?

  23. Passenger Comfort What goes up …… ……must come down!!! ……or out!!!

  24. Fuel Economy Slow down – the pumps can’t keep up! Can’t you go any faster? Replenishment at Sea?

  25. Reliability If we can’t get another crankshaft I don’t think I can hold her in orbit Captain!!

  26. The high payload, fuel efficient ropax solution

  27. Multiple vehicle decks (today, up to 250 trailers!)

  28. Increase in container ship size 10,000 Teu Megaship 1,500 Teu Feedership

  29. Slot costs and Total Charter Equivalent (TCE) of large container ships Source: Wijnolst et al (2000).

  30. High-speed craft developments

  31. Technology in ports

  32. Modal shift imperative

  33. This is what we want to see

  34. Public sector provides roadways and railways

  35. Why not seaways? What is a seaway?

  36. EU Transport Policy – Motorways of the Sea Policy (Proposal or Regulation 478 14/7/04) • Sea transport is the only real solution to help manage road freight growth • Established Marco Polo II Programme • Improved budget of €740m for 2007-13 • Objectives: • Shift 140 billion tkm off roads • Reduce CO2 emissions by 8,400 million kg • €1 subsidy = €6 social/environmental benefits • EU Member States requested to bring forward MoS schemes

  37. Fuel costs

  38. Fuel costs have increased 4-fold since 1999

  39. Conclusion • Don’t ignore aims of maritime policy • Shipping market has a cycle (timing is key) • Trade doubling every 10 years/transhipment even faster • Environmental constraints on port expansion, vessel emissions • Regulatory framework – going more global • Industry consolidation (and scale) – also global/all sectors • Technological change – very rapid, short lifecycle, vast scale econ • Modal shift imperative – EU and national gov can assist ‘seaway’ • High fuel costs – moderate speed/high payload = efficiency • Other factors (e.g. flag, tax, port services, outsourcing, logistics) • Sea transport has a great past…and an even greater future!

  40. Thank You