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New Directions in Modelling Innovation: applying agent-based methods to socio-technological transitions

New Directions in Modelling Innovation: applying agent-based methods to socio-technological transitions. Jonathan Köhler, Michaela Gigli , Antje Bierwisch, Arne Lüllmann Fraunhofer ISI j.koehler@isi.fraunhofer.de EU-SPRI Conference 2012 Fraunhofer ISI Karlsruhe 12-13 th June 2012 .

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New Directions in Modelling Innovation: applying agent-based methods to socio-technological transitions

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  1. New Directions in Modelling Innovation: applying agent-based methods to socio-technological transitions Jonathan Köhler, Michaela Gigli, Antje Bierwisch, Arne Lüllmann Fraunhofer ISI j.koehler@isi.fraunhofer.de EU-SPRI Conference 2012 Fraunhofer ISI Karlsruhe 12-13th June 2012

  2. Introduction Transition Theory Agent-Basedmodellingoftransitions: the MATISSE pilot model Psychology of behavioural change Niches and regimes: agents, networks, strategies Possible modelling methods What is to be done?

  3. Transition Theory Multi-level perspective on transitions (adapted from Geels, 2002: p. 1263)

  4. Agent-Basedmodellingoftransitions: the MATISSE pilot model:1

  5. Agent-Basedmodellingoftransitions: the MATISSE pilot model:2 Two illustrations of a two-dimensional practices space, with practice axes Pxand Py. Left: regime and niches, which can move in the space and interact with each other. Right: the consumer agents showing supporters scattered in the practices space, coloured by the agent they support, red = regime (R), green = niche 1 (N1), blue = niche 2 (N2).

  6. Psychology of behavioural changeHeuristic framework model (adapted from Prochnow et al, 2012)

  7. Psychology of behavioural change Levels and theories of behaviour change: electric vehicle adoption. Anable et al. (2011, p.1017)

  8. Niches and regimes: agents, networks, strategies Niches, regimes: Model separatelyoremergentpropertyfromagentinteractions? Can theybemodelledasnetworks, using e.g. socialnetworktheory? Functioningofnichemarkets: Firm strategies; strategicmanagmentideas (asopposedto Strategic Niche Management) Socialnetworksandentrepreneurialactivity, networkdynamics Integration ofproductbasedcharacteristicsandconsumercharacteristics in Agent Based Models

  9. Possible modelling methods Problems ofcalibrationwith large numberofparameters: the inverse problem, fromoverallresult in thedata, identify plausible rangesofparameters Game theoryforagentinteractions Neuralnets, learningalgorithmsfromArtificialIntelligence

  10. What is to be done? Research question: how to develop an Agent Based Model of sustainability transitions that can investigate how niches arise and grow and under what conditions they lead to a transtion to a new socio-technical regime. current literature on modelling does not address behavioural changes towards sustainability and niche growth processes Possiblemethods Psychological models for agents (consumers) Social structures of niches and regimes, social network ideas Firms’ behaviours and the dynamics of niche structures on the supply side, Strategic managementtheoryas well asStrategic Niche Management

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