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EMBEDDING THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL INTO THE REALITY

This study, presented by Floriana Gargiulo at the IRES conference in Torino on April 19, 2010, explores the integration of theoretical demographic concepts into practical applications. It utilizes a variety of datasets such as Eurostat, census data at the municipal level, and regional commuting networks to analyze household age distribution and size. The article discusses the challenges of data limitations and the use of iterative algorithms for generating realistic population models. It highlights key examples from municipalities to illustrate these concepts.

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EMBEDDING THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL INTO THE REALITY

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  1. EMBEDDING THE CONCEPTUAL MODELINTO THE REALITY IRES – TORINO – 19/04/2010 Floriana Gargiulo

  2. VILLAGE From concepts to reality… ACTIVITIES,LAND USE,SERVICES • EUROSTAT datasets • CENSUS Data at municipality level • Inventaire communale+ Base permanente des èquipments • Corine land cover • Enquête RP99 migration • Labour Survey • … AGE DISTRIBUTION HOUSEHOLDS HH SIZE DISTRIBUTION RESIDENCES

  3. Two examples: Initialization of demography at municipality level The network of municipality at regional level

  4. DEMOGRAPHIC INITIALIZATION of POPULATION AGE DISTRIBUTION HH1 HH2 HH5 HH SIZE DISTRIBUTION HH3 HH6 HH7 HH4

  5. CONSTRAINS: • HH Type • AgeofReferent • Differenceofagebetweenpartners • Differenceofagebetweenmother and children NO INDIVIDUAL DATA NO DETAILS ON A SAMPLE NO INFORMATION IN DIFFERENT YEARS NO POSSIBILITY TO USE TRADITIONAL STATISTICAL METHODS LIKE IFP ITERATIVE ALGORITHM: STOCHASTIC EXTRACTION + TEST

  6. CONSTRAINS: • HH Type • AgeofReferent • Differenceofagebetweenpartners • Differenceofagebetweenmother and children HH SIZE DISTRIBUTION AGE DISTRIBUTION TEST HH size 3

  7. Age of Referent ABREST BELLERIVE SUR ALLER Number of Children ABREST BELLERIVE SUR ALLER An Iterative ApproachforGeneratingStatisticallyRealisticPopulationsofHouseholds Floriana Gargiulo, SôniaTernes, Sylvie Huet and Guillaume Deffuant PLoSOne. 2010; 5(1): e8828

  8. The REGIONAL level: the commuting network

  9. WEIGHTED GRAPH DIRECTED GRAPH UNWEIGHTED GRAPH SURVEY ONCOMMUTING WEIGHTED GRAPH 1310 municipalities 43323 directed links UNDIRECTED GRAPH UNWEIGHTED GRAPH

  10. DEGREE DISTRIBUTION MUNICIPALITY WITH IN-DEGREE HIGHER THAN 100 • 63103 - ChatelGuyon • 63113 - Clermont Ferrand • 63124 - Cournon D’auvergne • 63164 - Gerzat • 63178 - Issoire • 63193 - Lempedes • 63284 - Pont Du Chateau • 63300 – Riom • 63307 - Romagnat • 63430 – Thiers • 03095 - Cusset • 03118 – Gannat • 03185 – Montlucon • 03190 - Moulan • 03310 – Vichy • 15014 -Aurillac • 43157 - Puy En Velay • 63014 - Aubiere • 63032 - Beaumont • 63040 - Billom • 63063 - Cebazat • 63075 - Chamalieres

  11. Definition of the reachable outside AUBIERE SAINT GERON SAINT PAULIEN

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