Statistics: Investment in the Future

1. Statistics: Investment in the Future International Statistical Conference Prague – 14./15. September 2009 Walter Radermacher, Chief Statistician of the European Union, Director General Eurostat

2. Statistics: a short history in 4 political steps • „Statistics“ is the empirical branch of the science of state (German: Statistik –> Staatswissenschaften) • Official statistics (political/administrative position, working methods) reflect the development of societies in particular the specific relationship between state and citizens • Some factors create different political settings: • Constitution (democratic, authoritative) • Institutional set-up of economy (market, planification) • Society (closed/national, globalised) • Main sectors of economic production • Dynamics of structural change (slow, fast) Walter Radermacher, Eurostat

3. Statistic users and producers: Interactions Producers of statistics Users of statistics • discussion / definition • perception patterns • programmes • products work system information need conducting of processes, provision of products and services use knowledge statistical information statistical data + metadata communication Walter Radermacher, Eurostat

4. How are they defined? Information needs: Politics Public Opinion Statistics Science Institutionalsetup Walter Radermacher, Eurostat

5. Statistics in a pre-democratic society • State = authority = single constituent = single user • Information needs defined by request of king or alternative authority • First Statistical „Authorities“ as institutions • Slow change processes (industrialisation) • Development of work system with a small scientific loading • Production in special processes; survey (obligatory response) based on authority of statistical institution • Dissemination dominated by the user „State“, general publications as by-product Walter Radermacher, Eurostat

6. Statistics in a “young” democracy / national state • State = authority = premium constituent = premium user • Information needs defined by request of government and/or parliament after consultation of stakeholders • Statistical Institutes are “Cinderella” authorities • Relatively slow change processes (industrialisation) • Development of work system with a higher scientific loading • Production in special processes; survey (obligatory response) based on authority of statistical institution • Dissemination dominated by the user „State“, general publications as standard and equivalent product Walter Radermacher, Eurostat

7. Statistics in an authoritarian regime • State = authority = single constituent = single user • Information needs defined by request of government • Statistical Institute with high importance but low independency • Focus on planification • Development of work system with a very high scientific loading • Production in special processes; survey (obligatory response) based on authority of statistical institution • Dissemination oriented to the interests of the regime; impartiality not an issue Walter Radermacher, Eurostat

8. Statistics in a democracy / global info society • State is one user as all others (“citizens first”) • Information needs defined in a dynamic and complex interaction (open platforms etc.) • Statistical “Services” • Rapid change processes, horizontal issues, cross-national phenomena • Development of work system with a very high scientific loading • Production in integrated processes; surveys limited to areas without existing data • Dissemination = Communication = public good “Statistics” Walter Radermacher, Eurostat

9. The art of finding an adequate working system Actuality Response burden Efficiency Accuracy Comparability Relevance Walter Radermacher, Eurostat

10. Convention and Measurement • Statistical information - by definition - is produced based on conventions which manifest an agreement between user and producer regarding the parameters, methods and definitions of the working system • In Official Statistics the convention has to be based on the information needs of the democratic society and it has to be made public (e.g. a UN Standard) • In European Official Statistics the convention is fixed by a legal act / decision • Professional independence in development, production and dissemination of official statistics is embedded in this framework of conventions Walter Radermacher, Eurostat

11. European Statistics • European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC) in the early 1950s: The harmonisation of methods was the foundation of European statistics • Rome Treaty on the European Economic Community (EEC) marked the birth of European legislation on statistics, for which the basis is laid in Art. 213 (subsequently Art. 284) => “Gentlemen's agreements“ • Since the 1990s, European policies directly based on statistics (e.g. convergence criteria of the Maastricht Treaty ) • The NSIs collect and produce harmonised data that are compiled by Eurostat to construct statistics at EU level. The approach continued to be "augmented": the European level was added to the national level Walter Radermacher, Eurostat

12. European Statistical System ESS • Regulation (EC) No 223/2009 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 March 2009 on European Statistics • Strengthens the cooperation in the ESS, in particular • cost-effectiveness-principle (Art. 2 (f)), • the European Statistical System Committee (Art. 7), • collaborative networks (Art. 15.), and a • European approach to statistics (Art. 16). • Generally, a next phase for official statistics in Europe has been initiated, in which the intentions of the law, namely to put in place a real "system" that makes use of cooperation and standardisation as far as possible while respecting the subsidiarity principle have to be realised. Walter Radermacher, Eurostat

13. Elements of the ESS • ESS Committee (ESSC) • European Statistical Advisory Committee (ESAC) • European Statistical Governance Advisory Board (ESGAB) • Partnership Group • Directors Groups • Comitology and advisory committees • ESSnets • Sponsorships • DGINS and other conferences Walter Radermacher, Eurostat

14. Organisational structure of the ESS ESSC Walter Radermacher, Eurostat

15. Situation of Statistical Offices • Need to reduce costs and increase efficiency • Increasing demands for statistical products and reduction of respondent’s burden • Improvements in quality are needed • Emerging user needs • Progress in information technology Walter Radermacher, Eurostat

16. Starting points for a solution: Efficiency!! • Standardisation of processes (CVD-approach) • Re-use of available data (administrative sources, online link to business accounting and other instruments of eGovernment, …) • Common infrastructure (registers, meta-data, geo-spatial information) • Meta-data driven architecture • Collaborative networks, common tools and knowledge sharing • Decentralised centralisation of production in shared webs • … Walter Radermacher, Eurostat

17. Reengineering of statistical production 1:1 Stovepipes Multiple Source Mix Mode Macrodata Survey Table Survey Data Ware-houses Access Survey Table Register Survey Survey Table Microdata Register Survey Table Survey Mesodata Walter Radermacher, Eurostat

18. The new architecture: a vision Input Processes Output Sample Selection ERP System Communication Entry Processing Analysis Primary surveys Administrative data repository Business register Meta-data GIS External registers External registers Infrastructure Walter Radermacher, Eurostat

19. European systems method of statistics • An integrated model for statistics in Europe: • horizontal integration across statistical domains at the level of NSIs and Eurostat, • and vertical integration covering both the national and EU levels. • Improving efficiency by elimination of unnecessary variation and duplication of work • Creation of free capacities for upcoming information needs Walter Radermacher, Eurostat

20. Change in the professional paradigm • From "data-collectors" to "re-users of data" • Risks • concepts and definitions may be changed by the owners of the data • data collections could be discontinued or altered • a loss of control (at least in the perception of statisticians) • higher complexity • Reallocation of R&D in statistics needed Walter Radermacher, Eurostat

21. Technical and methodological challenges • Standardisation and integration of formerly separated production processes will demand great efforts and an effective change management. • Stepwise approach and with intensive collaboration • Quality assessment + assurance of statistics will become much more complex • The legitimate interest of statistics, i.e. the position vis-à-vis the owners of re-used data (administrators, regulators or others) has to be reconsidered and strengthened Walter Radermacher, Eurostat

22. New ways of communicating with users • The more statistical production is based on complex methodology the more it is necessary to explain the results. • Trust in the statistical system and the perception of the quality of statistical information are closely related. • „Official“ has to become a quality stamp that users can assess against predefined quality guidelines • A basic education in simple statistical elements could help to mitigate a tendency of misunderstanding with the general public (“innumeracy”). • As a consequence, user orientation has to be the guiding principle in communication. Walter Radermacher, Eurostat

23. Thank you for your attention! walter.radermacher@ec.europa.eu http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/