Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia

1. Deyr 2010/11 Information for Better Livelihoods Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit Somalia January 26, 2011 Juba Regions Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC EUROPEAN COMMISSION

2. Deyr 2010/11 Seasonal Assessment Coverage Field Access and Field Data Locations • Normal access in Buale, Sakow, north of Jilib district of M. Juba and Afmadow, Hagar, Jammame, Kismayo districts in L. Juba; • Key informants in south Jilib including Jilib town and the entire Badhadhe district

3. Main Livelihood Groups Sources of Food and Income • Livelihood Groups & Main Sources of Food and Income • 2 Pastoral Livelihoods (Southeast and Southern Inland Pastoralists) • Primary sources of income of poor: sale of livestock & livestock products • Primary sources of food of poor: purchase • Primary livelihood assets of poor: camel, cattle, sheep/goat • 2 Agro-pastoral Livelihoods (Southern and Lower Juba Agropastoralists) • Southern Agropastoral are more Agro pastoral Afmadow, L. Juba, than those in the M. Juba and Jammame (L.Juba) who are more agriculturalists. Main sources of income: sale of livestock & livestock products, self-employment, employment, crop sales; main source of food is own production and purchases • Lower Juba Agropastoral are more pastoral. Main source of income: sales of livestock products and wild foods; main source of food: own production and purchases. • Riverine (M. and L. Juba) • Main source of income of poor : Crop sales, wage labour, self-employment (collection of bush products) • Main sources of food of poor: Own production and market purchase

4. Climate Performance of the Deyr 2010/11 Rainfall • Start of Season: started late, 1st dekad of November. However, some light showers were received in 3rd Dekad of October 2010. • Temporal and Spatial Distribution: Very poor in terms of coverage and intensity; long dry spell in November-December months. • Amount of Rainfall: Insignificant

5. Climate Vegetation Conditions Trends in NDVI & RFE by district & land cover

6. Climate Vegetation Conditions Trends in NDVI & RFE by district & land cover

7. Civil Insecurity • Civil Security Situation: • Relatively stable but tense • Direct and Indirect Impacts on Food Security & Nutrition: • High impact • Drastically reduced humanitarian access and interventions. • Pull out (August-Sept) of 2 major international NGOs (World vision and Horn relief) mainly implementing health and nutrition, wash and livelihood interventions. Source: FSNAU & Protection Cluster

8. Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Cereal Production Estimates

9. Agriculture Cereal Production Estimates Plus Off-season Maize

10. Agriculture Deyr 2010/11 Cash Crop Production Estimates (L/M Juba)

11. AgricultureDeyr 2010/11 Cereal Production in Middle Juba Regional Trend in Deyr Cereal Production (Middle Juba) Regional Trend in Deyr Cereal Production Plus Off-season (Middle Juba)

12. AgricultureAnnual Cereal Production in Middle Juba Regional Trend in AnnualCereal Production (Middle Juba)

13. AgricultureDeyr 2010/11 Cereal Production Plus Off season in Lower Juba Regional Trend in Deyr Cereal Production (Lower Juba) Regional Trend in Deyr Cereal Production Plus Off-season (Lower Juba)

14. AgricultureAnnual Cereal Production in Lower Juba Regional Trend in AnnualCereal Production (Lower Juba)

15. Agriculture Deyr 2010 Assessment Photos Insignificant recede cultivation, Jambarow Jammame, L. Juba, Dec ‘10. Planted Farms Not Germinated, Jammame, L. Juba, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10 Recede Cultivation in Dhesheks, Buale, M. Juba, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10 Planted Farms Not Germinated, Buale, M. Juba, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10

16. Agriculture Deyr ’10/11 Local Cereal Flow: Cereals come from Juba riverine (maize) and Sakow agropastoral (sorghum) into the interior of the region.

17. AgricultureRegional Trends in Cereal Prices in Juba Regions Source: FSNAU FIDS Dec 2010, R=1. Source: FSNAU FIDS Dec 2010 Regional Trend in cereal prices (maize) - Middle Juba • Factors influencing cereal prices: • Poor maize and sorghum production in agropastoral • High maize demand (Juba inland) Regional Trend in Cereal Prices (maize) in Lower Juba

18. Agriculture Labour Rates and Availability Middle Juba • Factors Influencing Wage Labor rates in agricultural districts. • Availability: • Reduced agricultural activities following the seasonal rainfall failure. • Limited agricultural inputs, which curtailed irrigational infrastructure • Low capital for investments hindering employment opportunities. Lower Juba

19. AgricultureRegional Trends in Terms of Trade in Juba Regions Source: FSNAU FIDS Dec 2010 Middle Juba • Factor Influencing ToT decline: • Significant increase in maize prices. • Decreased daily labour wage rates Lower Juba

20. Livestock Rangeland Conditions and Livestock Migration, Dec ’10 • Poor pasture across the region except river banks which is infested with tsetse fly. • Poor water availability in the key pastoral areas. • Poor livestock body conditions except camel.

21. Livestock Trends in Livestock Holdings and Milk Production

22. Livestock Deyr 2010/11 Assessment Photos Cattle Migration from North Sakow to Jilib Riverine, M. Juba, FSNAU, Dec. ‘’10 Poor Cattle Body Condition. Dashek Wamo, Afmadow, L. Juba, FSNAU, Dec. ‘10 Poor Lactating Cattle Body Condition. Jilib, M. Juba, FSNAU, Dec. 10.

23. LivestockRegional Trends in Livestock Prices in Juba regions Regional Trend in Cattle Prices in Middle Juba • Factors Influencing local cattle prices: • Disruption of Garissa market due to poor Deyr 2010/11 rainfall performance resulting in poor pasture and shortage of water along the livestock trekking route to Garissa market. • Poor livestock body condition Middle Juba. Regional Trend in Cattle Prices in Lower Juba Lower Juba.

24. Livestock Regional Trends in Terms of Trade Between Cattle/Maize in Juba regions Regional Trend in TOT between Cattle/Maize in Middle Juba • Factors influencing Terms of Trade (cattle to maize): • High cereal prices • Decreased livestock prices due to poor body conditions and low demand • Disruption of Garissa market Regional Trend in TOT between Cattle/Maize in Lower Juba

25. Markets Trends in Imported Commodity Prices • Factors Influencing Commercial Import • Price Increases (last six months) • Increasing global prices • Increased taxation on commercial imports due to growing illegal tax collections • Failed local cereal production and the need to import more commercial goods.

26. NutritionSummary of Nutrition Findings in Middle and Lower Juba Regions

27. Nutrition Nutrition Situation Estimates Juba Regions Nutrition Situation Estimates, August 2010 Juba Regions Nutrition Situation Estimates, January 2011

28. IPCSummary: Progression of Rural IPC Situation MAP 2: IPC Deyr 2010/11 MAP 3: LIVELIOOD ZONES MAP 1: IPC Gu 2010 • Key IPC Reference Outcomes: Riverine – Sakow, Jilib & Jamame (HE: 100%P, AFLC: Middle 50%M); Buale (HE: 100%P, AFLC: 25%M); Agropastoral and S.E Pastoral – High Risk, HE: 25%P, AFLC: 75%P. • Acute malnutrition: Critical to Very Critical • Food Access: Limited access of food and availability are average except Juba Riverine • Water Access: Severe water shortage • Destitution/Displacement: Emerged destitutions and seeking refuge to Kenya Refugee camps • Coping: Distress coping strategies • Livelihood Assets: Good production in Agropastoral areas and livestock recovery in terms of body condition and livestock reproduction and holdings • Main Causes: • Consecutive seasons of average rainfall • poor crop productions in Agropastoral areas • Poor livestock production due to limited pasture and water availability • South-East Pastoral, Lower Juba Agropastoral and southern Agropastoral: deteriorated due to poor livestock and crop production, low livestock prices and relatively low ToT between cereals and local quality goats • Juba Riverine: Crop production failure due to severe moisture stress

29. IPCEstimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE by Districts

30. IPCEstimated Rural Population in AFLC & HE by Livelihood Zones

31. IPCEstimated Urban Population in AFLC & HE by District

32. The End