D rought monitoring and co-ordination in South Africa Presentation 18 February 2016

1. Drought monitoring and co-ordination in South Africa Presentation 18 February 2016

2. National Joint Drought Coordinating Committee (NJDCC)

3. 2015 confirmed as the driest year on record for SA (since 1921)

5. Outlook for the rest of the 2015/16 summer rainfall season

6. Status of ENSO (El Nino / Southern Oscillation) The current ENSO event continues to manifest itself as a strong positive SST anomaly, comparable in magnitude to the historic 1983 and 1998 events ENSO predicted to subside back towards a near-neutral condition towards the austral (southern hemisphere) winter season of 2016 However, it is difficult to make any predictions for (it’s effects on) SA beyond mid winter

7. Seasonal outlook: RAINFALL

8. Seasonal outlook: MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE

9. Conclusion • The below-normal rain situation is still expected to persist for the remainder of the summer season • Virtually entire country has a high likelihood of the occurrence of warmer than normal temperatures • In the current week (15-21 Feb), dry and hot weather is expected with a few afternoon thundershowers over the eastern high lying areas of South Africa. • This pattern most likely will continue into the next week (22-28 Feb) • Isolated heavy rain and/or severe thunderstorm events may still occur, as is typical for the El Nino period.

10. Strategic and policy considerations Implementation of robust and integrated monitoring systems to reduce uncertainty regarding climate variability and change Advancing Early Warning Systems to mitigate the projected increase of extreme events and support effective Disaster Risk Reduction Improving understanding of water, food and health nexus as associated the trade-offs to promote sustainable resource use and development Expanding initiatives such as maintenance of ecological infrastructure and ecosystems to help to maintain, support and sustain livelihoods and ecosystem services Mainstreaming climate resilience into infrastructure and operational designs Building robust infrastructure with an understanding of the long term vs. short term costs and benefits Increasing education & capacity building as they are cornerstone adaptation responses necessary at all levels and in all sectors Coordination at all levels of government vertically and horizontally in the context of climate change Investing in further research into climatic impacts at a local level and across industry value chains Exploring innovative financing models to support deliver of appropriate adaptation responses

11. Adaptation implementation • Adaptation plans have been completed and are under implementation by: • Department Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries • Department of Water and Sanitation • Department of Rural Development Land Reform • Department of Health to guide adaptation on health impacts • Department of Environmental Affairs (adaptation to climate impacts on ecosystems). • A number of provinces • The Department of Environmental Affairs is co-ordinating: • Working for Water (managing invasive alien plants for water security); • Working on Fire (to manage the increase of veld and forest fires); • Working for Wetlands (conserving the ecological services of wetlands) • Working for Ecosystems (conserving the ecological services of catchments)

12. Agriculture • The Climate Change Sector Plan for Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries notes the following: -   • Adaptation plans will need to consider carefully water curtailments to irrigators in times of drought, in light of food security and conditional upon irrigators using water efficiently. • There is a need for geneticists to breed more drought / heat resistant varieties of, for example, deciduous fruit with more rapidly responding phenologies and requiring lower Positive Chill Units; with breeding / developing new varieties to be done now, because response times for the deciduous fruit species, for example, is long. There is the need to relook, inter alia, water requirements, pH, and fertilizer requirements. • Diversification within and outside the agriculture sector- projected decreases in rainfall will require diversification in agricultural practices, eg. finding new locations which are climatically suitable for crops, growing indigenous species, harvesting less often to prevent nutrient depletion, using local techniques to decrease wind erosion, and planting of drought- resistant maize varieties, alternative crops or late- maturing fruit trees. • Reduce unsustainable management practices such as injudicious burning, overgrazing, spread of invasivesetc which, lead to land degradation and expand land and ecosystem restoration practices.

13. Water sector • To address drought, the Climate Change Response Strategy for the Water Sector aims to: • Protect water allocations to poor and marginalised communities, particular under drought conditions, as per the prioritisation accorded to water use in the National Water Resources Strategy; • Ensure all dams have written operating rules in place, including clear rules for drought conditions. • Address the need for more reliable data, to monitor the changes in rainfall patterns, as this hydrological information monitoring is crucial for assessing the state of water resources, monitoring and management of droughts and floods, reservoir planning, evaluation of impacts of climate change and land based activities on water resources and also contribute to the control of pollution at national level. • Develop tools to evaluate the effect of drought and climate change. • Improve science-policy interface, across many of the strategies reviewed, better science and research is recognised as being of critical importance in managing the water-related impacts of climate change. In particular, the issue of better predictive tools and better data on which to base climate change predictions is seen as very important. In addition, science and research can provide significant adaptive responses, such as through development of drought resistant crops, or water efficient technologies. • Co-ordinate with other sector departments in preparing for adaptation to the impacts of climate change; develop and elaborate appropriate and integrated plans for coastal zone management, water resources and agriculture, and for the protection and rehabilitation of areas, particularly in Africa, affected by drought and desertification, as well as floods;

14. Water Sector (2) • Infrastructure development, operation and maintenance • Multipurpose water storage • Water supply and sanitation: invest in research for optimal technologies for adaptation and update guidelines of waste water treatment plans to consider climate change • Groundwater development: develop ground water sources of supplying water • Alternative water sources: investigate feasibility of alternative water sources • Planning for possible extremes • Water allocation and authorisation • Use compulsory licensing and water re-allocation • Improve monitoring and compliance • Optimise dam and groundwater use • Enhance water conservation and demand management • Enhance ground water capacity • Disaster management: ensure early warning system and disaster management plans in place for vulnerable communities • Build awareness around climate change impacts on infrastructure for planners and engineers. • Test DWS WR infrastructure plans against no regrets/low regrets framework and against most recent climate change impact scenarios to ensure that the appropriate infrastructure decisions are being made. • Plan for developing new water resources including dams, water re-use, desalination and other additional water resources.

15. Human settlements and associated infrastructure • The housing backlog is a particular source of vulnerability in relation to human settlements and past experiences can provide lessons for future developments in the provision of low cost housing: • Environmental risks associated with climate change must be considered in informal settlement upgrades. Community driven re-blocking projects need to be supported by local authorities and integrated into strategies for the delivery of basic services to these communities. The planning skills needed for these projects do not revolve around technology so much as the facilitation of community processes. • Policies and programmes that improve tenure security and provision of basic services to backyard tenants may be necessary. • Formal planning of low cost and social housing needs to prioritize urban densification and where possible the state should intervene to ensure market values do not dictate property development to the detriment of social equity. In relation to existing low cost housing developments, deficits in the structural design of individual units need to be addressed, as well as deficits in urban design in the form of inadequate community facilities, public services and infrastructure. • Ecological infrastructure and ecosystem based adaptation needs to be mainstreamed into human settlements planning. For instance, measures to improve and maintain the health of catchments and wetlands supporting downstream service delivery or moderating floods. National and local government should identify and implement supporting incentives – such as water pricing and water use charges – that encourage landowners to restore degraded catchments and maintain healthy ones. • Urban development strategies that leverage adaptation opportunities in mixed settlements, (such as urban agriculture) and mitigate vulnerabilities, such as inadequate access to basic services, need to be pursued.

16. Biodiversity sector • The Biodiversity Sector Climate Change Response Strategy provides an overview of the anticipated climate change impacts on South Africa’s biodiversity. Some of the key elements of the Biodiversity Sector Climate Change Response Strategy that address the impacts of drought on biodiversity include: • Reducing existing threats to biodiversity to promote resilience of natural ecosystems and species. • Restore and maintain ecological infrastructure • Ongoing development and expansion of a comprehensive, adequate and representative protected areas network, improved in-situ and ex-situ management of areas of high conservation value (e.g. National Protected Areas Expansion Strategy - NPAES). • Enhancing understanding of and increasing the value and application of Ecosystem-Based Adaptation responses. • Incorporating climate change information into management tools for biodiversity management (e.g. Bioregional Plans, Biodiversity Management Plans, etc.) • Increased monitoring and research into the impacts of climate change and adaptation options for species and ecosystems threatened by climate change.

17. Disaster risk reduction • Mainstream disaster risk reduction (not simply disaster response) into policy and planning - all sectors/ spheres • Support the continued shift from a reactive to a proactive approach to disaster management. • Improve collaboration between DRR-M and climate change adaptation line departments. • Improve DRR-M coordination within and between government departments at all levels of government. • Improve delineation of roles and responsibilities around DRR-M, emphasising the importance of DRR within all sectors and levels of government. • Support the establishment of DRR-M structures, including forums and nodes, at all levels. • Strengthen institutional capacity to response to Early Warning System information at all levels and especially support local level engagement in collating and sharing information. • Provide additional support to assist local government with post disaster costing and reporting, as well as with initiatives such as acquiring finance to support risk reduction. • Support local municipalities in efforts to map community vulnerability to all weather-related hazards and to integrate this into local planning. • Encourage efforts and enhance costing of the damages caused by disasters at all levels • Acknowledge the role of healthy ecosystems and ecological infrastructure in reducing the impacts of climate vulnerability and change and integrate this into DRR-M planning. • Invest in research and development for forecasting and tailored information

18. THE WORKING FOR WATER PROGRAMME Managing invasive alien plants for water security Invasive alien plants are using 5% of our mean annual runoff. Left alone, this impact will rise to 16% as the plants spread and grow. In specific catchments, they can consume all available water. Climate change will exacerbate this impact by invasive plants. The Department runs the Working for Water programme, on behalf of a partnership of Departments, to control such invasions. Over 2,800,000 hectares of land have been cleared of invasive plants through this programme. WfW has allocated R 1 033 069 229 (R1.03 Billion) for this work in 2015/16. Over 38,000 people will work on this programme in this year. This work is essential for long-term water security. The CSIR calculated the value of the water as a result of the control of invasives at 400 billion. In the short-term, Working for Water will seek to re-prioritize some of its work, to focus on invaded riparian areas. This can facilitate immediate water benefits.

19. THE WORKING ON FIRE PROGRAMME Integrated Veld and Forest Fire Management • Wild fires are a major factor in the management of fire-prone ecosystems. • Most of the areas that are currently experiencing drought are in fire-prone systems. • Fire is necessary for the health and productivity of these ecosystems (e.g. grazing). • A failure to burn, or burn timeously (be it too often or too infrequently), can lead to weakened ecosystem functioning and even collapse, with all the productivity losses. • The Department manages the Working on Fire programme, again on behalf of a partnership of Departments. • Over 3,000 wild fires are expected to be brought under control through the programme in 2015/16, on top of controlled burns and establishing firebreaks. • WoF has allocated R527 928 132 for this work in 2015/16. • Over 6,000 highly trained Fire-fighters will work on this programme in this year. • The drought is bound to lead to serious challenges in the fire seasons in the south (in Summer) and potentially in the north (next Winter). • WoF is capacitated to fight fires, co-ordinate preventative protection measures, and enhance productivity of land, now, and in a changing climate.

20. THE WORKING FOR WETLANDS PROGRAMME Conserving the Ecological Services of Wetlands Water quality is a pressing issue in a developing world. Wetlands are often referred to as “Nature’s Kidneys”, for the filtration and purification services that they offer. Wetlands similarly have critical roles in flood attenuation – a factor that will grow in importance as climate change bites. They are also important for biological diversity, food security, disease management and other attributes, as well as low-flows of water supply. DEA manages Working for Wetlands on behalf of partner Departments. Over 1,100 wetlands have been repaired and conserved through this programme. Working for Wetlands has allocated R 110 601 659 for this work in 2015/16. Over 1,500 people will work on this programme in this year. An emphasis on wetland conservation, and a particular use of offsets to establish artificial wetlands that mitigate water quality problems from poor sanitation, are among the envisaged short-term interventions in these circumstances.

21. THE WORKING FOR ECOSYSTEMS PROGRAMME Conserving the Ecological Services of Catchments • Soil erosion, siltation, slippage, mudslides and sedimentation are major factors in the immediate water challenges faced in South Africa, and certainly in the long-term management of water. • The sooner these impacts of poor land-use practices are addressed, the lower the impact, including upon water. • The Department manages the Working for Ecosystems programme in key catchment areas, in partnership with other Departments, as well as a Working on Land programme, that address this problem.. • Working for Ecosystems has allocated R92,552,294 for this work in 2015/16, and a further R27,100,000 is budgeted through Working for Land. • Over 2,000 workers will work on these programmes in this year. • Whilst the benefits are critical in the long-term, the programmes will seek to focus some of its work for short-term gains in this drought.

22. THERE IS NO CHOICE WITH WATER: ADAPT OR DIE The good thing is that is it a profitable thing to do South Africa, like all countries, must adapt to a changing climate that will have various impacts, including with respect to water. Whilst this inevitably means that our water use per capita has to reduce, on average (and be equitable), the changes that are necessary must be embraced. We can do them now, because we are currently experiencing a drought and the challenge of El Nino, but actually the measures that we should all adopt will be investments in the long-term. This is particularly true of demand-side management options, where dual-flush toilets, low-flow showerhead, water-wise gardens and the like offer quality solutions to what are frankly inefficient and wasteful practices. We can take this further in what we prescribe for development, such as the norms and standards for housing, that can ensure a “technology leap” for development in the country. The control of invasive alien plants in our catchments and landscapes is essential. The sooner it is done, the less it will cost. Whilst greater water security is an obvious benefit, there are many other benefits, including greater productivity of land. The same is true of our management of wetlands, of wild fires, of land and ecosystems. And all of them are among our most important opportunities for jobs. As much as we need to adapt our lifestyles, and ensure that we make every drop of water count, these are changes that are frankly overdue in a world with a changing climate and growing population. Adapt or die.