NWS Science & Technology Roadmap, V 1.0 (under review, debate, coordination)

1. NWS Science & Technology Roadmap, V 1.0(under review, debate, coordination) Preparing for Tomorrow… Today Don Berchoff, Director Office of Science & TechnologyJune 25, 2009 Prepared For Our Partners

2. Overview • Guiding Principles • Roadmap Construct • Service Area Goals; Research Needs and Opportunities • Potential Societal Benefits • Example Service Area Roadmap • Enabling Capabilities Goals • Schedule & Milestones 2

3. Guiding Principles OST Mission: Drive S&T Advances into NWS Operations • Meet NWS Strategic Plan S & T objectives • Develop service area stretch goals to rally and influence Nation’s research strategies, plans and investments • Harness the Nation’s best expertise to solve scientific challenges • Field next generation observing/forecast systems to… • Ensure timely, accurate and relevant weather information for governmental decision makers, general public, private industry • Ensure rapid, on-demand access to information for all… from sophisticated user to “Joe the plumber” 3

4. Roadmap Construct NWS Strategic Plan • Observations • Data Assimilation • Forecasting: • Models • Post Processing • Human Aided • Dissemination • Decision Support • Verification & Metrics • Customer Outreach, Feedback Technologies • Social Sciences • Fire Weather • Hydrology • Aviation • Severe Weather • Winter Weather • Marine • Tropical Weather • Climate • Air Quality • Space Weather • Tsunami • Sensible Wx & Health Impacts • Emerging areas(e.g. energy, ecosystems) ID Next Generation Enabling Capabilities Service Science Areas Research Thrusts Research Partners Test Beds /Service Proving Grounds Protection of Life and Property Enhanced National Economy • Universities • Government Labs • Private Industry S&T Research to Operations 4

5. Service Area Goals and Research Thrusts 5

6. Potential Societal Benefits Potential Benefits Service Area Improvements Reduce $10B/yr in tropcyclone damage Tropical Cyclone, Track,Intensity, Precip Forecasts Reduce $1B/yr indamage from severe wx Tornado and Flash FloodWarnings Reduce $60 B/yr lossesfrom air traffic delays Aviation, Fire, and MarineForecasts Reduce $4.3B/yr inflood damage Flood and River Predictions Reduce mortality from50,000/yr from poor AQ Air Quality Predictions Reduce $365M/yr inlosses (power industry) Space Weather Reduce $7B/yr inlosses (drought) Seasonal Climate Forecasts forEnergy, Agriculture, Ecosys, etc 6

7. Tropical Cyclone Roadmap Vision Finer scale and highly accurate track, intensity and inundation forecasts that trigger appropriate responses resulting in reduced loss of life and economic impacts • R&D Needs and Opportunities • Cause of rapid intensity changes • Key observations needed for improved forecasting • Air-sea fluxes under quiet and disturbed conditions • Predictability limits • Vortex-convection-environment interactions • Microphysics of convection at high-resolution • Social Science • Halved track & intensity forecast errors • Warnings and forecasts prior to cyclogenesis • Communication of accurate, street level evacuation Increasing Impact • Wind radii forecasts to 5 days • Wind& surge impact guidance to 36-hr • Improved rapid intensity change, POD and FAR • Track forecast to 7 days • Detailed storm- surge/inundation forecasts • Improved tropical cyclone precip estimates 2009 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 25 Time 7

8. Enabling Capabilities Goals • Integrated observing and analysis system • Coupled, integrated environmental modeling: data assimilation, prediction, post-processing (e.g. ensembles) • Next Generation 4-D Forecast System • Optimize for high impact events • Forecaster decision support tools, applications with government-centric information architectures • Dynamic training capabilities • 4D Digital Weather Information Database (WIDB) • Transformed dissemination/communication/outreach capabilities • Incorporated social sciences strategies in research and operations 8

9. Integrated Observation/Analysis System Strategies National Mesonet Network of Networks Integrated Radar (Lidar, gap-fillers, MPAR) Global Systems Multisensor platforms Optimization with OSEs, OSSEs Standards, Architectures, Protocols Maximize value of investment Future Weather Information Database Open Architecture Current Individual Systems Public Private Universities Radar Satellite In-Situ Upper Air Etc Analysis Inventory systems, and metadata standards Assess interdepend-encies, oversampling, gaps, levels of criticality

10. Components Chemistry Dynamics Physics Couplers WIDB Coupled, Integrated Environmental Modeling System Atmospheric Model Earth System Models Ocean Land Surface Air Quality Space Hydrology Ecosystem Ensembles Etc Weather Industry Multi-component ensemble + Stochastic forcing 4D Data Assimilation e.g. 4D Var, EnKF, hybrids Resolution Changes, Downscaling Post Processing Bias Correction, Statistical Methods, Ensembles Product Generation Verification 10 10

11. Next Generation 4-D Forecast SystemOptimized for High Impact Weather Events/Uncertainty Where can I addvalue today? What matters? Customer Thresholds Where’s theuncertainty? RADAR Satellite In-Situ Ensembles Customer Thresholds Models Post-Processing Satellite RADAR In-Situ Ensembles Models Post-Processing Intelligence Augmentation NWS Forecaster Future Smart Tools System Algorithms Artificial Intelligence NWS Forecaster Today

12. User Input Next Generation 4-D Forecast SystemHigh Impact Weather Events (Notional) User Input NWS informs public decision makers for public safety, security 12

13. Next Generation 4D Forecast SystemDecision Support Services Common operating picture to help aid forecasters identify weather threats with the most impact on airspace operations

14. Next Generation 4-D Forecast System:Decision Support Emergency Managers NWS Forecasters Weather Information Database supports interoperability—common operating picture Advanced Communication/Collaboration Capabilities IMETS Responders Emergency Operations Center 14

15. Weather Information Database Weather Industry Private Industry Private Sector Observations Forecasting Numerical Prediction Systems Satellites Network Enabled Operations Postprocessed Probabilistic Output NWS Forecaster Radars Data Integration WIDB Cube Aircraft Automated Forecast Systems Surface ForecastIntegration Soundings Grids Decision Support Systems Custom Graphic Generators Custom Alphanumeric Generators Governmental Decision Making 15

16. Transform Dissemination/ Communication/Outreach Architecturesfor NWS Users WIDB Geospatial Database GIO/GPMO GIS Team GIS Pros at NWS NWS Web Team IRIS NWS Shapefiles Internal Help Desk/ “Tier 1 Support” Customer Help Desk AWIPS Offices using AWIPS work stations NOAA GIS data Climate Outlook NDFD Watches/warnings Radar Hurricane Tracks Etc Legacy Storage GovernmentAgencies General Public Private WeatherIndustry Internet Access Legacy Apps Data in OGC Compliant format WFS WCS WMS KML Geo-database Geospatial Reference Information Firewall GIS Apps: NWS Support, Admin. & Mgmt.

17. Incorporate Social Sciences Strategies in Research & Operations • Probabilistic Forecasts • Communicating Forecast Uncertainty High Public Weather Industry Social Science Infusion Public Decision Makers Educated on use of probabilistic guidance to ensure best response Forecasters Incorporating Uncertainty for Managing Risk and Making Decisions Private Sector Human Factors, Communicating Uncertainty Sophisticated Users Low Time Today 17

18. RoadmapSchedule, Milestones, and Status PHASE I Establish Framework Team 17 Nov 2008 Framework Brief to Corporate Board 10 Dec 2008 PHASE II 21 Dec 2008 Roadmap plenary workshop 3 Feb 2009 Capstone Group completes initial draft 27 Mar 2009 Update for NOAA/NWS leadership Apr 2009 (Progressive updates. Next update by August 2009) Focus Area Teams complete robust outlines (briefing) 30 Jun 2009 PHASE III Stakeholder input compiled Oct 2009 Draft Capstone Document Nov 2009 Full Documentation of Focus Area Plans (10-14pp each) Nov 2009 All S&T Roadmap documents published early 2010 Status 6/15 Completed In progress Milestone 18

19. Questions 19