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The challenge of maintaining status quo in the South China Sea

The challenge of maintaining status quo in the South China Sea. Nguyen Thi Lan Anh. China ’ s behaviour in the SCS. 2009. 2010.

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The challenge of maintaining status quo in the South China Sea

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  1. The challenge of maintaining status quo in the South China Sea Nguyen Thi Lan Anh

  2. China’s behaviour in the SCS 2009 2010 • 29/5 & 31/5/2011: Chinese boats Fei Sheng No. 16 and Vessel No. B12549 attempted to approach the rear deck of the Viking II seismic survey ship and interfere with its operations. • 1/6/2011: Chinese military vessels threatened to use their guns against a Vietnamese fishing boat operating in waters near the Spratly archipelago. • 9/6/2011: Chinese fishing boat No. 62226 equipped with a cable cutting device snared the cable of the Viking II operating in survey Block 136‐03 in the vicinity of Vanguard Bank (Tu Chinh). • 6/7/2011: Armed Chinese naval troops beat the skipper of a Vietnamese fishing boat, threatened the crew, and then forced the boat to leave contested waters near the Paracel Islands. 2011 2012

  3. China Introduced New Vertical MAP

  4. From U shape to emerging J shape line

  5. Of course, the Oil rig was not about Oil

  6. Johnson South Reef Construction

  7. China Major Naval Power Dreams  2010  2020  2050 • Coastal defense • Near sea defense • Blue water navy

  8. China securing “exits” to the Oceans Chinese “9 Exits” toward Outer Sea “Int’l Express News” Apr 2010 “String of Pearls” ① Pakistan Hawaii ② Bangladesh ③ Anti-Piracy ④ ⑤ A2/AD ⑥ Myanmar 1stIsland Line Guam ⑨ Sri Lanka Diego Garcia 2nd Island Line ⑧ ⑦

  9. From U-shape to J-shape U-Shape Territory Historical rights Resources J-shape Territory Historical rights Resources Security zone Dominance China’s DREAM

  10. China’s Domestic Politics • First generation of leader not “hand picked” by Dang Xiao Ping • Opening lots of fronts • Power base: PLA and the mass (nationalist) PLA more powerful, control foreign policy

  11. Solving the South China Sea vicious cycle: Where do I begin?

  12. Solving the South China Sea vicious cycle: Where do I begin? Self Restraint Status quo Manage Domestic Politics UNCLOS Clarify claims Delimit boundaries The role of public opinion and rules of the road Joint Developments Transparency Monitoring Trust building Incidents Management

  13. Thank you !

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