Voting Beliefs and Behaviors

1. Voting Beliefs and Behaviors

2. How American Elections Work • Three types of elections: • Select party nominees (primary elections) • Select officeholders (general elections) • Select options on specific policies • Referendum: • State voters approve or disapprove proposed legislation. • Often used for constitutional amendments.

3. How American Elections Work • Initiative petition: • Voters in some states propose legislation to be voted on. • Requires a specific number of signatures to be valid. • Can still be voted down by the people.

4. A Tale of Three Elections • 1800: The First Electoral Transition of Power • No primaries, no conventions, no speeches • Newspapers were very partisan. • Campaigns focused on state legislatures - they were the ones that chose the Electoral College. • After many votes in the House, power was finally transferred to Jefferson peacefully.

5. A Tale of Three Elections • 1896: A Bitter Fight over Economic Interests • Democrat’s main issue: Unlimited coinage of silver. • William Jennings Bryan won the Democratic Party nomination with speeches about the virtues of silver. • McKinley won the election, and the Republicans became the party of power.

6. A Tale of Three Elections • 2004: The Ratification of a Polarizing Presidency • George W. Bush became the fourth Republican since McKinley to win a second term. • The intensity of the election was in part due to the controversy of the 2000 election. • 2004 campaign was characterized by negative campaigning. • Leadership in war on terrorism and “moral values” proved to be the key issues.

7. Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice • Deciding Whether to Vote • U.S. typically has low voter turnouts. • Some argue it is a rational choice to not vote. • Political Efficacy: The belief that one’s political participation really matters. • Civic Duty: The belief the in order to support democratic government, a citizen should always vote.

8. Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice • Registering To Vote • Voter Registration: A system adopted by the states that requires voters to register well in advance of the election day. • Registration procedures differ from state to state. • Motor Voter Act: Requires states to permit people to register to vote when the apply for their driver’s license.

9. Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice • Who Votes? • Education: More education = more likely to vote. Most important factor. • Age: Older = more likely to vote. • Race: Caucasian = more likely to vote. BUT, other ethnicities are higher with comparable education. • Gender: Female = more likely to vote.

10. Whether to Vote: A Citizen’s First Choice • Who Votes? (continued) • Marital Status: Married = more likely to vote. • Union Membership: Union member = more likely to vote. • Traits are cumulative - possessing several adds up.

14. How Americans Vote:Explaining Citizens’ Decisions • Mandate Theory of Elections • The idea that the winning candidate has a mandate from the people to carry out his or her platforms and politics. • Politicians like the theory better than political scientists do.

15. How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizen's Decisions • Party Identification • People generally vote for a party they agree with. • Rise of candidate-centered politics has changed this view. • Now many voters are individualistic. • Characteristics of each candidate have become more important than party.

16. How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizen's Decisions • Candidate Evaluations: How Americans See the Candidates • Candidates want a good visual image. • Most important dimensions are integrity, reliability, and competence. • Personality still plays a role.

17. How Americans Vote: Explaining Citizen's Decisions • Policy Voting • Basing your vote choice on issue preferences. • Must know where they and the candidates stand on issues and see differences between candidates. • Candidates can be ambiguous on the issues. • The press tends to focus on the “horse race” not the issues. • Today candidates are forced to take a clear stand in the party primaries.

18. The Last Battle: The Electoral College • Electoral College actually elects the President - founders wanted him chosen by the elite of the country • States choose the electors • Winner-Take-All system gives bigger emphasis to more populated states

19. The Last Battle: The Electoral College • How it works today: • Each state has as many votes as it does Representatives and Senators. • Winner of popular vote typically gets ALL the Electoral College votes. • Electors meet in December, votes are reported by the vice president in January. • If no candidate gets 270 votes (a majority), the House of Representatives votes for president, with each state getting ONE vote.

20. Understanding Elections and Voting Behavior • Democracy and Elections • Voters can steer government only when there are noticeable policy differences between the candidates. • Candidates who vow to continue popular policies are more likely to win elections. • Policies affect voting behavior through retrospective voting. • Bad economies make politicians nervous.

21. Understanding Elections and Voting Behavior • Elections and the Scope of Government • Elections generally support government policies and power. • Voters feel they are sending a message to government to accomplish something. • Thus, the government expands to fill the needs of the voters.

22. Public Opinion and Political Action

23. Public Opinion • The distribution of the population’s beliefs about politics and policy issues. • Demography • The science of population changes. • Census • A valuable tool for understanding population changes - required every 10 years.

24. The American People • The Immigrant Society • African Americans face a legacy of racism. Hispanics are the largest minority group, faced with the problem of illegal immigration (Simpson-Mazzoli Act). • Asian immigration has been driven by a new class of professional workers. • Political culture is an overall set of values widely shared within a society.

25. The American People • The Regional Shift • Reapportionment: The process of reallocating seats in the House of Representatives every 10 years on the basis of the results of the census. Figure 6.2

26. The American People • The Graying of America • Fastest growing age group is over 65 • Potential drain on Social Security • “Gray Power”

27. How Americans Learn About Politics: Political Socialization • Political Socialization: • “…the process through which and individual acquires [their] particular political orientation” • The Process of Political Socialization • The Family • Time & emotional commitment • Political leanings of children often mirror their parent’s leanings

28. How Americans Learn About Politics: Political Socialization • The Process of Political Socialization • The Mass Media • Generation gap in TV news viewing • School / Education • Used by government to socialize the young into the political culture • Education produces better jobs and a more positive view of government • Political Learning Over a Lifetime

30. Measuring Public Opinion and Political Information • How Polls Are Conducted • Random Sampling: The key technique employed by sophisticated survey researchers, which operates on the principle that everyone should have an equal probability of being selected for the sample. • Sampling Error: The level of confidence in the findings of a public opinion poll.

31. Measuring Public Opinion and Political Information • The Role of Polls in American Democracy • Polls help politicians figure out public preferences. • Does it make politicians think more about following the polls? • Exit Polls - used by the media to predict election day winners. • The wording of questions makes a difference.

32. Measuring Public Opinion and Political Information • What Polls Reveal About Americans’ Political Information • Americans don’t know much about politics. • Americans may know their basic beliefs, but not how that affects policies of the government. • The Decline of Trust in Government • Since 1964, trust in government has declined. • Trust in government has gone up somewhat since September 11.

33. What Americans Value: Political Ideologies • Political Ideology: • A coherent set of beliefs about politics, public policy, and public purpose. • Who Are the Liberals and Conservatives? • Views change over time • Currently about 37% conservative, 23% liberal, 40% moderate

34. What Americans Value: Political Ideologies • Do People Think in Ideological Terms? • Ideologues: think in ideological terms - 12% of the population • Group Benefits: rely on party labels - 42% of the population • Nature of the Times: current times are good or bad - 24% of the population • No issue content: based on personalities - 22% of the population

35. How Americans Participate in Politics • Political Participation: • All the activities used by citizens to influence the selection of political leaders or the policies they pursue. • Conventional Participation • Voting in elections • Working in campaigns / running for office • Contacting elected officials

36. How Americans Participate in Politics • Protest as Participation • Protest: A form of political participation designed to achieve policy changes through dramatic and unconventional tactics. • Civil disobedience: A form of political participation that reflects a conscious decision to break a law believed to be immoral and to suffer the consequences.

37. Understanding Public Opinion and Political Action • Public Attitudes Toward the Scope of Government • Many people have no opinion. • Democracy, Public Opinion, and Political Action • We select our leaders, not policies. • We protest for specific policies, not against the government.