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Welcome

Welcome. Defining Reality. A Century of Change…. 2011. Christian 2011. 2001. Lost since 2001. Christian 2001. 1920. Christian 1920s. 1920s. 2011. Lost CofE ?. CofE ?. 1920s. 2011. attendees. Growth and decline indicators of association with the Church of England, 1905 to 2009.

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Welcome

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  1. Welcome

  2. Defining Reality

  3. A Century of Change…

  4. 2011 Christian 2011

  5. 2001 Lost since 2001 Christian 2001

  6. 1920 Christian 1920s

  7. 1920s 2011 Lost CofE? CofE?

  8. 1920s 2011 attendees

  9. Growth and decline indicators of association with the Church of England, 1905 to 2009

  10. Over 60 non Christians Christian 2011 Over 60 Christians

  11. No religion Not stated Other religions

  12. No religion Not stated Other religions Attend other Denominations?

  13. No religion Not stated Other religions Attend other Denominations? Attend Cof E

  14. The Squeeze on Resources www.churchgrowthRD.org

  15. Stipendiary clergy actuals and projections 2002 to 2022

  16. SLOW ON-GOING DECLINE • The average decline in Church attendance has been 1.3% per annum for the past 30 years. • The average parish in the Church of England has 79 people attending. • This means that the average parish has been declining by around one person per year. www.churchgrowthRD.org.uk

  17. One person, per church, per year may not seem like much… But, over 20 years this means we’ve lost a quarter of our attendees: 20 years ago Today 1.3% decline per year www.churchgrowthRD.org.uk

  18. A Methodist Story This is what was predicted…

  19. A Methodist Story This is what has happened since…

  20. A Methodist Story • In making the projection, Butler & Jones did not assume anything would go radically ‘wrong’ among the Methodist’s Church’s membership • They simply took the view membership would decline through: • Deaths in an increasingly elderly membership, and • A failure to recruit from outside existing members and their immediate families

  21. C of E Age Profile Trend

  22. Church of England Projection

  23. Church of England Projection

  24. Church of England Projection

  25. 10 Year AWA change: 2001 – 2011 (Smoothed) 5 Year AWA change: 2007 – 2011 (Smoothed) -7.2% -3.8% -21.7% 7.3% -15.6% 5.7% Blackburn Average (mean) London Blackburn Average (mean) Sheffield AWA per Capita: 2011 2.17% 1.15 3.96 Birmingham Average (mean) Hereford Resource Strategy & Development Unit – National Church Institutions

  26. Resource Strategy & Development Unit – National Church Institutions

  27. Fresh Expressions • In the 6 dioceses surveyed to date: • Who’s coming?: 23% Christian, 35% de-churched and 42% are non-churched. • The investment ratio: for every 1 person sent, another 2.5 are now present. • Small starting team: 75% of cases 3 to 12 • Growth: At least 1/3rd quickly grow to a size (37 -50) and then plateau • Over half lay led (and 41% of leaders are laity with no formal designation or training).

  28. Fresh Expressions • FX attendance accounts for 4.4% to 14.4% of diocesan attendance (average 9.5%) in dioceses surveyed. • Increase in attendance brought about by FX is greater than the prior AWA decline in each of these 6 dioceses (2006-10).

  29. Quinquennial Goals • To take forward the spiritual and numerical growth of the Church of England. • To re-structure the Church’s ministry for the century coming, so as to make sure that there is a growing and sustainable Christian witness in every local community. • To contribute as the national Church to the common good.

  30. A Strategic Response • Confidence in the Gospel • Facing up to reality • Sharing learning about mission and growth • More intentional use of resources • Less jam spreading • Investing where need/opportunity

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