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INSTITUTE OF LABOUR AND SOCIAL RESEARCH. E c onomi c and social situ a tion in Baltic countries : LIT H UA NIA. Inga Bla z ien e Boguslavas Gru z evskis Vilnius-Brus s els, 20 12. CONTENT. Evaluation of Lithuanian economic potential (GDP); Unemployment developments ;
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INSTITUTE OF LABOUR AND SOCIAL RESEARCH Economicand social situation in Baltic countries: LITHUANIA Inga Blaziene Boguslavas Gruzevskis Vilnius-Brussels, 2012
CONTENT • Evaluation of Lithuanian economic potential (GDP); • Unemployment developments; • Population income and living standards; • Emigration and demographic perspectives in Lithuania; • Conclusions.
Treaty on European Union • The Union […] shall work for the sustainabledevelopment of Europe based on balanced economic growth and price stability, a highly competitive socialmarket economy, aiming at full employment and social progress […]. • It shall combat social exclusion and discrimination, and shall promote social justice and protection […]. • It shall promote economic, social and territorial cohesion, and solidarity among Member States. • (Treaty on European Union, Title 1, Article 3)
Unemployment rate in EU in 2011 (%) Source: „Eurostat“
Youth unemployment rate in EU in 2011 (%) Source: „Eurostat“
Average annual gross earnings in business economy in EU in 2009-2010 (euro)
Average annual gross earnings in business economy in EU in2006-2007(euro)
Average gross monthly wages and salaries in Lithuania in 2001-2011
Average monthly income in Lithuania in the 1st quarter, 2012
Price level index of selected consumption goods and services in Lithuania and EU-27 in 2010 (%)
Austerity measures • increased VAT (from 19% to 21%); • decreasedold age pensions; • decreased unemployment social insurance benefits; • tighten conditions for payment of unemployment social insurance benefits; • decreased salaries of public sector employees(by 4-12%); • low minimum monthly wage was not increased, etc.
Unemployed and unemployed receiving unemployment benefits in Lithuania in 2008-2010
Recipients of social benefits in Lithuania in 2005-2011 (thous.)
Persons, emigrated from Lithuania: 2004–2011 – 330 thous. 1990–2011 – 668 thous.
Acceleration of demographic ageing in some EU countries in 2006-2011 m. (%)
Lithuanian population by gender and age in 2010 and forecasts for 2060 • Men, 2010 • Women, 2010 • 20601 in 2060 – 2 million 548 thous. (by 697 thous. less comparing to 2011) 1 1
Lithuanian perspectives in 2060 Lithuania: will have2,5 millionresidents, out of them youth (15-29 years) – 339,6 thous.(13%)
Social insurance statistics in Lithuania in 2006-2011 At the end of 2012 m. State social insurance fund debt will reachLTL 12 billion (3,5 billioneuro).
low labour productivity and low wages; Causes of such a situation include: • low living standards and “poverty trap”, high rate of economic inactivity; • decrease in number of enterprises (especially – large, small and medium) and low technological level of production; • imbalances in vocational education and training and structural unemployment (in 2011 as much as 11% of large enterprises declared shortage of qualified labour force); • unattractiveness of the national labour market comparing to the EU one.
the fastest depopulation in the EU; Conclusions • the fastest ageing society in the EU; • decreasing economic capacity/potential of the country (number of enterprises and economic activity of the population); • increasing poverty; • inefficient social security policy; • huge distrust in public authorities (especially – the Parliament and the Government).