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Inga Bla z ien e Boguslavas Gru z evskis Vilnius-Brus s els, 20 12

INSTITUTE OF LABOUR AND SOCIAL RESEARCH. E c onomi c and social situ a tion in Baltic countries : LIT H UA NIA. Inga Bla z ien e Boguslavas Gru z evskis Vilnius-Brus s els, 20 12. CONTENT. Evaluation of Lithuanian economic potential (GDP); Unemployment developments ;

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Inga Bla z ien e Boguslavas Gru z evskis Vilnius-Brus s els, 20 12

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  1. INSTITUTE OF LABOUR AND SOCIAL RESEARCH Economicand social situation in Baltic countries: LITHUANIA Inga Blaziene Boguslavas Gruzevskis Vilnius-Brussels, 2012

  2. CONTENT • Evaluation of Lithuanian economic potential (GDP); • Unemployment developments; • Population income and living standards; • Emigration and demographic perspectives in Lithuania; • Conclusions.

  3. Treaty on European Union • The Union […] shall work for the sustainabledevelopment of Europe based on balanced economic growth and price stability, a highly competitive socialmarket economy, aiming at full employment and social progress […]. • It shall combat social exclusion and discrimination, and shall promote social justice and protection […]. • It shall promote economic, social and territorial cohesion, and solidarity among Member States. • (Treaty on European Union, Title 1, Article 3)

  4. GDP per capita in PPP in 2011 (EU27 = 100%)

  5. Annual GDP growth (%)

  6. Unemployment indicators in Lithuaniain 2004–2011

  7. Unemployment rate in EU in 2011 (%) Source: „Eurostat“

  8. Youth unemployment rate in EU in 2011 (%) Source: „Eurostat“

  9. Average annual gross earnings in business economy in EU in 2009-2010 (euro)

  10. Average annual gross earnings in business economy in EU in2006-2007(euro)

  11. Average gross monthly wages and salaries in Lithuania in 2001-2011

  12. Average monthly income in Lithuania in the 1st quarter, 2012

  13. Price level index of selected consumption goods and services in Lithuania and EU-27 in 2010 (%)

  14. In work at-risk-of-poverty rate in EU in 2010 (%)

  15. Austerity measures • increased VAT (from 19% to 21%); • decreasedold age pensions; • decreased unemployment social insurance benefits; • tighten conditions for payment of unemployment social insurance benefits; • decreased salaries of public sector employees(by 4-12%); • low minimum monthly wage was not increased, etc.

  16. Unemployed and unemployed receiving unemployment benefits in Lithuania in 2008-2010

  17. Recipients of social benefits in Lithuania in 2005-2011 (thous.)

  18. Declared emigration from Baltic countries (persons)

  19. Persons, emigrated from Lithuania: 2004–2011 – 330 thous. 1990–2011 – 668 thous.

  20. Acceleration of demographic ageing in some EU countries in 2006-2011 m. (%)

  21. Lithuanian population by gender and age in 2010 and forecasts for 2060 • Men, 2010 • Women, 2010 • 20601 in 2060 – 2 million 548 thous. (by 697 thous. less comparing to 2011) 1 1

  22. Lithuanian perspectives in 2060 Lithuania: will have2,5 millionresidents, out of them youth (15-29 years) – 339,6 thous.(13%)

  23. Social insurance statistics in Lithuania in 2006-2011 At the end of 2012 m. State social insurance fund debt will reachLTL 12 billion (3,5 billioneuro).

  24. low labour productivity and low wages; Causes of such a situation include: • low living standards and “poverty trap”, high rate of economic inactivity; • decrease in number of enterprises (especially – large, small and medium) and low technological level of production; • imbalances in vocational education and training and structural unemployment (in 2011 as much as 11% of large enterprises declared shortage of qualified labour force); • unattractiveness of the national labour market comparing to the EU one.

  25. the fastest depopulation in the EU; Conclusions • the fastest ageing society in the EU; • decreasing economic capacity/potential of the country (number of enterprises and economic activity of the population); • increasing poverty; • inefficient social security policy; • huge distrust in public authorities (especially – the Parliament and the Government).

  26. WHO IS RESPONSIBLE???

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