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40% House achieving 60% cuts in residential sector CO 2 emissions by 2050

40% House achieving 60% cuts in residential sector CO 2 emissions by 2050

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40% House achieving 60% cuts in residential sector CO 2 emissions by 2050

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  1. 40% Houseachieving 60% cuts in residential sector CO2 emissions by 2050 Sustainable Refurbishment conference, 25 January 2006 Gavin Killip Environmental Change Institute University of Oxford 40% House project – achieving 60% cuts in residential sector CO2 emissions by 2050

  2. CO2 emissions, 2001 Energy & CO2 emissions - UK Energy, 2001 Source: DTI 2002 Source: DEFRA 2002 40% House project – achieving 60% cuts in residential sector CO2 emissions by 2050

  3. UK residential energy use and savings, 1970-2000 Source: Energy Consumption in the UK (2002) 40% House project – achieving 60% cuts in residential sector CO2 emissions by 2050

  4. 40% House - context • Four objectives of Energy White Paper 2003: • 60% reduction in carbon dioxide by 2050 • adequate and affordable warmth • security of supply • competitiveness • Likely changes in population and climate 40% House project – achieving 60% cuts in residential sector CO2 emissions by 2050

  5. 40% House - summary More space, heat, hot water, lights, appliances 133 housing stock 100 70 demand reduction 40low- & zero-carbon technologies (LZC) 40% House project – achieving 60% cuts in residential sector CO2 emissions by 2050

  6. Effect of household size on energy use Source: Fawcett et al 2000, based on analysis of EHCS 1996 data 40% House project – achieving 60% cuts in residential sector CO2 emissions by 2050

  7. ‘Best Practice’ needs to improve • Gallions Ecopark • Ecohomes ‘excellent’ • Space heating energy consumption ~ 8,200 kWh/year • New build average needs to be 2,000 kWh • Ecohomes ‘excellent’ is an inadequate standard for new-build 40% House project – achieving 60% cuts in residential sector CO2 emissions by 2050

  8. Refurbish or replace? 40% House project – achieving 60% cuts in residential sector CO2 emissions by 2050

  9. Housing stock changes, 1996 – 2050 Net additions, 1996 – 2004 refurbish New build, 2005 - 50 demolish 40% House project – achieving 60% cuts in residential sector CO2 emissions by 2050

  10. Residential lights and appliances Technical potential = 56% reduction in energy use 40% House project – achieving 60% cuts in residential sector CO2 emissions by 2050

  11. Low- and Zero-Carbon technologies (LZC) 40% House project – achieving 60% cuts in residential sector CO2 emissions by 2050

  12. LZC Technology Deployment 40% House project – achieving 60% cuts in residential sector CO2 emissions by 2050

  13. 40% House: Carbon Emissions 40% House project – achieving 60% cuts in residential sector CO2 emissions by 2050

  14. How to do it - theory • Target property transactions as the key opportunity • Make the costs more attractive/bearable • Improve quality of workmanship: massive training and recruitment drive for installers • Monitor and report consumption • Get people to adopt conserving behaviour 40% House project – achieving 60% cuts in residential sector CO2 emissions by 2050

  15. Theory into practice: Opportunity 40% House project – achieving 60% cuts in residential sector CO2 emissions by 2050

  16. Theory into practice: Cost • Grants = £100’s • Costs = £1,000’s • Owner-occupiers - need incentives to make it mainstream (eg Stamp Duty rebates) • Private rented sector – need to regulate • Public sector – need a tough refurbishment standard: public sector can stimulate markets by being a demanding client 40% House project – achieving 60% cuts in residential sector CO2 emissions by 2050

  17. Theory into practice: Detail & Workmanship 40% House project – achieving 60% cuts in residential sector CO2 emissions by 2050

  18. Annual energy use: Gas = 10,750 kWh Elec = 1,550 kWh Annual CO2 emitted: 2.8 tonnes total 1.4 tonnes per person 0.03 tonnes per m2 Theory into practice: Monitoring & Reporting 40% House project – achieving 60% cuts in residential sector CO2 emissions by 2050

  19. Theory into practice: conserving behaviour • Education & awareness-raising still needed • Widespread ownership of LZCs may help • Peak oil, peak gas = price rises, cuts? • A minority of citizens care enough to ‘do their bit’ but infrastructure is lacking • Better metering/billing can change behaviour • Do we need a policy framework for demand reduction, eg carbon allowances? 40% House project – achieving 60% cuts in residential sector CO2 emissions by 2050

  20. 40% House scenario, 2050 • 67 million people in smaller family units • 22m homes refurbished, 3m demolished, 10m new • Energy demand reduced beyond the currently cost effective • 54m LZCs in homes & neighbourhoods = 16 x Didcot power station • Diversity of technologies = security of supply • No reliance on nuclear or remote renewables to meet residential sector demand 40% House project – achieving 60% cuts in residential sector CO2 emissions by 2050

  21. Policy issues - I • Needs strong leadership and a coherent policy framework • Tighter building regulations and compliance • Planning policies require 100% energy from on-site renewables by 2020 • Include shading devices as energy-savers • Strong EU policies establish energy conservation as product design principle 40% House project – achieving 60% cuts in residential sector CO2 emissions by 2050

  22. Policy issues - II • 54m LZCs in homes & neighbourhoods = 16 x Didcot power station • Huge skills gap and employment potential • Diversity of technologies = security of supply • No reliance on supply-side ‘fixes’ to meet residential sector demand (new nuclear, remote renewables) • Decentralised energy generation implies more devolved government and more engaged population 40% House project – achieving 60% cuts in residential sector CO2 emissions by 2050

  23. www.eci.ox.ac.uk gavin.killip@eci.ox.ac.uk 01865 285162 40% House project – achieving 60% cuts in residential sector CO2 emissions by 2050