1 / 15

Communicating Changes in the Arctic Environment

Communicating Changes in the Arctic Environment . Nancy N. Soreide NOAA/PMEL, Seattle, WA J. E. Overland, J. A. Richter-Menge, H. Eicken, Helen Wiggins and and J. Calder . IPY Oslo Science Conference 2010, June 8-12, 2010. Communicating Changes in Arctic Environment.

liana
Télécharger la présentation

Communicating Changes in the Arctic Environment

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Communicating Changes in the Arctic Environment Nancy N. SoreideNOAA/PMEL, Seattle, WA J. E. Overland, J. A. Richter-Menge, H. Eicken, Helen Wiggins and and J. Calder IPY Oslo Science Conference 2010, June 8-12, 2010

  2. Communicating Changes in Arctic Environment • The international Arctic Sea Ice Outlook • A community-wide summary of the expected September Arctic sea ice minimum. • The Arctic Report Card • A concise, scientifically credible and accessible source of information on recent changes in the Arctic. • Future of Arctic Sea Ice and Global Impacts • Summarizes important recent Arctic science results for a broader broader audience, beyond the science literature.

  3. Sea Ice OutlookA community-wide summary of expected September Arctic sea ice minimum. • Reports issued monthly throughout summer. • Synthesize community-wide estimates • Scientific rationale of the range of estimates of expected minimum of sea ice • Not formal predictions for Arctic sea ice extent http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/

  4. 1996 1979-2000 2009 • All Outlook projected values for September 2009 were less than the observed value • But most were within the range of uncertainty

  5. Sea Ice Outlook 2008Showed predictability of Sept sea ice based on Spring data Ice extent - start from 27. June 2008 'June' outlook Predict. minima: mean=4.43 σ=0.21 Ice extent - start from 7. August 2008 'July' outlook Predict. minima: mean=4.43 σ=0.15 September

  6. Sea Ice for Walrus Outlook (SIWO)A New Sea Ice Outlook Product • Reports issued weekly on sea ice conditions • Designed for Alaska Native subsistence hunters, coastal communities, and others interested in sea ice and walrus

  7. Arctic Report Card Tracks recent environmental changesUpdated annually, Peer-reviewed http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/

  8. AtmosphereHigher air temperatures in the lower Arctic atmosphere contributing to changes in the atmospheric circulation in the Arctic and northern mid-latitudes AtmosphereLarge scale wind patterns impacted by loss of summer sea ice

  9. Sea IceSeptember extent in 2009 was thethird lowest in satellite record (1979) and >25% below 1979-2000 average Sea IceMulti-year sea ice is being replaced by first year sea ice

  10. GreenlandDespite an abnormally cold winter, record-setting summer temperatures lead to continued ice sheet loss Cumulative annual area changes for 34 of the widest Greenland ice sheet marine-terminating outlets. GreenlandIce sheet loss continues

  11. Biology, Ocean and LandShow many indications of warming LandIncreased runoff in Siberia, less snow in N. America OceanWarming and freshening of upper ocean linked to new ice-free areas BiologyHigh Arctic species impacted by loss of sea ice

  12. Future of Arctic Sea Ice and Global ImpactsSummarizes important recent Arctic science results for a broader, more general audience References 1 Wang, M., and J.E. Overland (2009): A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years? Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07502, doi: 10.1029/2009GL037820. 2 Overland, J.E., and M. Wang (2010): Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. Tellus, 62A, 1–9. 3Honda, M., J. Inoue, and S. Yamane (2009): Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L08707, doi:10.1029/2008GL037079. 4Strey, S.T., W. Chapman, and J. Walsh (2009): Effects Of An Extreme Arctic Sea Ice Minimum On the Northern Hemisphere Atmosphere During Late Autumn and Early Winter:, Eos Trans. Eos Trans. AGU, 90(52), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract C41A-0421. 5 Schweiger, A.J., Lindsay, R.W., Vavrus, S., and J.A. Francis (2008): Relationships between Arctic sea ice and clouds during autumn. J. Climate, 21, 4799–4810. 6 Serreze, M.C., Barrett, A.P., Stroeve, J.C., Kindig, D.N., and M.M. Holland (2009): The emergence of surface-based Arctic amplification. The Cryosphere, 3, 11–19. 7 Holland, M.M., C.M. Bitz, and B. Tremblay (2006): Future abrupt reductions in the summer Arctic sea ice. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L23503,doi:10.1029/2006GL028024. 8 Budikova, D. (2009): Role of Arctic sea ice in global atmospheric circulation: A review. Global Planet. Change, 68(3), 149–163. http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/future/

  13. Heat

  14. Impacts

  15. Arctic Report Card2http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/ International Arctic Sea Ice Outlook1http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/ • A community-wide summary of the expected September Arctic sea ice minimum. • Reports are released monthly throughout the summer. • Mew in 2010: Sea Ice for Walrus Outlook (SIWO). • Scientifically credible, annually-updated website designed for managers, scientists and citizens • Peer-reviewed by topical experts of the Climate Experts Group (AMAP) of the Arctic Council. The Future of Arctic Sea Ice and Global Impacts2http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/future/ • Summarizes important recent Arctic science results for a broader broader audience 1 Supported in part through the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) 2 Supported by the NOAA Climate Program Office through the Arctic Research Program

More Related