Islam China Remaking Southeast Asia

1. Islam & China – Remaking Southeast Asia? University of Chicago Graduate School of Business International Roundtable June 21, 2007

2. End of History or Clash of Civilizations? Francis Fukuyama Liberal democracy and Western values prevail Sam Huntington Age of ideology over, but world reverts to cultural base of conflict Two “challenger civilizations” – Sinic (China, Korea, etc.) and Muslim World

3. Huntington’s Map of Major Civilizations

5. Diversity “Southeast Asia nurtures such rank and exuberant variegation of language, custom, and subsistence mode that it is scarcely possible to focus the jumbled pieces into a coherent image.” --Stanley J. O’Connor

6. Main Political Forces Democratization Military Economic & cultural elites Rural & urban poor Ethnicity Religion

7. Democratization Democracy Legitimacy Effectiveness Security Prosperity Moral authority of leader Most important where there is lack of confidence in the institutions of law to protect against abuse of power National identity

8. Military Organized National reach Protectors of national security Fight for independence, against insurgencies Avenue for upward mobility

9. Economic & Cultural Elites Chinese business Wealthy families Royalty Religious leaders Educators

10. Rural & Urban Poor “People power” Poverty base of revolutionary movements Populist democratic movements

11. Ethnicity Chinese economic power South Asians Indigenous people Malay “bumiputra” Hill tribes Multiplicity of ethnic groups may mitigate

12. Religion Multiple religious influences, but Clear religious majorities Buddhist Thailand Moslem Malaysia & Indonesia Christian Philippines Disadvantaged religious minorities Christians in Indonesia Moslems in Thailand and the Philippines

13. Moslems in SE Asia More than 200 million Muslims in SE Asia (almost 20% of world’s 1.2 billion Muslims) Arab-Muslim traders spread Islam since the seventh century (reached SE Asia in 1300s) Minorities (localized communities) in Buddhist Thailand & Myanmar Christian Philippines Majorities in Malaysia & Indonesia

15. Historical Overlays Ancient foundations Stone age (java man, etc.) Australonesian, Polynesian, Malay Asian commerce East – Chinese South – Indian West – Arab Commerce also brought religion, customs and court practices

19. European Colonization Portuguese, Spanish, British, French, Dutch Political, economic & cultural Covered most of Southeast Asia Indonesia – Portuguese, then British, then Dutch Philippines – Spain, then US Burma & Malaysia – British Indochina (Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia) – French Thailand – squeezed but never under European rule

20. Bandung Conference 1955 Organized by Egypt, Indonesia, Burma, Ceylon, India & Pakistan 29 Asian and African nations attended Sukarno & Nehru key speeches Promote economic and cultural cooperation and oppose colonialism China role – eased fears Led to nonaligned movement (1961)

21. Threat of Communism Most SE Asian countries became independent during cold war era Communism was the major revolutionary political force With decline of communism, religious and ethnic differences gain significance

22. Mixed Issues Ethnic v. Religious divisions Ethnic & religious minorities in Thailand and the Philippines Islamic majorities in multi-ethnic Malaysia and Indonesia – Chinese minority with economic power Both situations worked against Islamic political dominance

23. Thailand Area: 514,000 sq. mi. Population: 64,631,595 GDP per capita: $9,100 (PPP) Export economy Agriculture Manufactured goods

24. Thailand Buddhist majority Only SE Asian country never under European rule Intermittent democracy/military rule King’s strong influence Militant Muslim minority in south

25. Democracy vs. Military Rule Thailand became a constitutional monarchy in 1932 First democratically elected PM in 1946 Army took back power in 1947 Phibun, Sarit, Thanom Thai values – order, hierarchy, religion 1970s – peasant/student unrest Democratically elected governments Military continued periodic intervention Currently devising 17th constitution

27. Sufficiency Economics Capitalism & globalization Reckless growth, crisis Too much liquidity/investment? King’s concern for poor people and the environment Capitalist Thaksin programs helped the poor Military – recent inept economic measures

28. Insurgency Communist insurgency in north and northeast no longer active Malay insurgency in south goes back 100 years – recently heated up Attacks on schools – symbols of Thai efforts to force assimilation Severity – links to global Islamic terror network?

29. Drivers of Insurgency Economic Poverty, inequality, exploitation Social Ethnic or class grievances Political Oppressive government Military/police brutality Foreign occupation Religious Purely religious Linked to local issues Linked to global movements

31. Philippines Area: 300,000 sq. mi. Population: 89,468,677 GNP per capita: $5,000 (PPP) Economy Debt (69% of GDP) and inefficiency Industry, services, agriculture Remittances

32. Philippines Catholic Spain evangelized most of the country – Muslim remnant minority ethnic groups US defeated Spain, took over administration Fought 14 year war against Filippino insurgents seeking independence Ultimately supported democratic self-governance - focus on education and legal system

33. Political Forces Mainstream politics Elite families & cronies Weak, fluid political parties Rebels Communists Muslim successionists Catholic Church influential

34. Democracy in Decline? Marcos took dictatorial power – forced out by “people power” revolution Last President (Estrada) forced to step down Accusations of election irregularity on the part of the current President (Arroyo) Proposals to change government to parliamentary style

35. Insurgents in the Philippines New People’s Army (NPA) Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG)

37. Moros – Centuries of Insurgency Islam reached southern Philippines in 14th century Spanish arrived in the north soon after Moros fought Spanish and initially welcomed Americans Soon proved difficult foe for US (1902-1913) Juramentado – suicide attacks on civilians Fought Japanese Objected to position in Philippine Republic

38. MNLF & MILF Moro National Liberation Front formed in 1969 by university students in Philippines and Mid East Support from Libya and elsewhere Leadership split – 1989, Moro Islamic Liberation Front MILF smaller but more militant

40. Abu Sayyaf Small but brutal group Wahabi influenced/financed Afghanistan fight experience Al-Qaeda connection

41. Common Themes Problems of governance Governments unable to deliver benefits equitably Democratic governments supported by poor brought down by educated elites Militant insurgencies Suppressed Islam minorities Seek local autonomy Connection to external support

42. Malaysia Population: 24,385,858 GDP per capita (PPP): $12,700

43. Mixed Progress Solid economic growth, but Dominant party autocracy and Social (ethnic) tensions

44. Political Forces Constitutional monarchy Position of king rotates King is not a significant political force Ruling coalition United Malays National Organization (UMNO) Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) Malaysian Indian Congress (MIC) Opposition Partia Islam se Malaysia (PAS) Democratic Action Party (DAP) Chinese base

45. Coalition of Elites MCA and MIC in alliance with UMNO Barisan National (BN) coalition formed in 1946, dominated by UMNO Have won every election Economic disparities, social tensions & race riots led to measures to favor Malay Economic growth kept opposition at bay PM Matahir Mohammed co-opted Islamic issues

46. Islam & Democracy Almost all Malays are Muslim Religion, like race, provides communal identity PAS grew to be largest opposition party in 1990s PAS embraced democratic process in competing with UMNO Anwar incident – failed opportunity for change

47. Stability BN coalition – careful balance between appeal to communal bases and stability Economic development central Ethnic division remain – parties continue to all have ethnic/racial bases

48. Indonesia Population: 245,452,739 GDP per capita (PPP): $3,800

49. Indonesia Pancasila (five principles) – official state ideology Belief in one God Just and civilized humanity National unity Democracy by consensus of representatives Social justice for all Held hundreds of ethnic groups together Many Muslims wanted to add Islam and Sharia – blocked by Sukarno

50. Communism After independence, widespread public participation in interest groups Communist party (PKI) – On the side of poor, workers & peasants Opposed landlords, also Muslim local elites. Military/senior bureaucrats managed economic assets taken from Dutch US alarmed at PKI growth 3 million by 1965 Potential influence on other underdeveloped nations

51. 1965 Left-right divisions in military Sukarno Symbol of national unity – untouchable PKI balance power against right wing top generals Sept 30 mutiny by mid-level officers Killed 6 generals Suharto escaped (or was in on a conspiracy) Military leadership/Suharto blamed PKI Rumors of atrocities Used local forces to eliminate communists Real atrocities – 500,000 killed

52. Suharto Suharto put technocrats (Berkeley Mafia) in major positions Consistent with Pancasila concepts of rational state Emphasis on indigenous concepts Islamic groups in opposition Military economic involvement

53. Bureaucratic Capitalism Pertamina affair Powerful public figures build private economic empires Ethnic Chinese capitalists Suharto ties with Liem Sioe Liong Pervasive corruption growing political issue

54. Separatist Movements Moluccas East Timor

55. Free Aceh Aceh home to conservative Muslim community Aceh Merdeka (Free Aceh) separatist movement since Dutch colonial time More radical National Liberation Front Aceh Sumatra (GPK-Aceh) emerged in 1990s Post-tsunami agreements

56. East Timor, Moluccas, West Papua Christian populations resisted Indonesian authority/integration Moluccas and Western Guinea claimed by Indonesia as part of former Dutch area East Timor – Portuguese control until 1975

57. East Timor 1500s Portuguese arrive 1974 Portuguese abandoned 1975 Declared independence, but Indonesia invaded before international recognition US quiet support to Indonesia (fear of communism) Brutal military occupation 1999 Referendum for independence New Indonesian President UN, US, Portugal pressures Unrest and fighting continues

58. Molluccas 1513 Portuguese 1599 Dutch 1949 Indonesia given control 1950 Attempted succession Government in exile in Netherlands Transmigration exacerbated strife between Christians & Moslems 2002 Accords & relative peace

59. New Guinea Island of New Guinea divided by colonial powers Spanish (1545) Dutch (Western half – 1828) British, Germans (Eastern half – late 1800s) Oil, copper, gold WWII – US military base 1945 Dutch retained West New Guinea, but Indonesia claimed 1952 Papuan right to self-determination 1961 West Papua declared independence

60. Western New Guineaaka West Papua, West Irian, Irian Jaya 1963 UN transferred control to Indonesia – subject to vote 1969 Indonesia took control “Act of Free Choice” ?? US support (concern about spread of communism) 1971 Construction of Freeport mine Transmigration 2000-2006 Separatist activity, limited autonomy, division

62. Islam in SE Asia Introduced between 1100 & 1400 AD “Soft penetration” Came through traders and missionaries rather than conquest Overlaid on animist, Hindu and Buddhist traditions Two main sources: Indian Islam – tolerant and easy going Yemen/Saudi Arabia – strict, orthodox, austere

63. Diversity & Local Flavor Diversity in the region reflected in religious practices Sufi influence through India (mysticism) resonates with traditional animist/Hindu/Buddhist culture Limited influence directly from Middle East Traders/migrants (Yemen)

64. Links to Middle East Islam Historic gulf due to distance Better communications & easier travel Support for Islamic schools Local issues still dominant Common issues Resent Israel treatment of Palestinians and US support of Israel Object to US military action in Afghanistan and Iraq

65. Unity in Diversity Ummah – despite diversity, recognition that all Muslims belong to one community Hajj – shared experience of pilgrimage Jihad – struggle to live the right kind of life Many Muslims do not separate religious from secular life Obligation to shape the world so people can live according to God’s will

66. Tolerance & Tension Muslim countries have traditionally been tolerant of Christian and Jewish minorities Most Muslim countries and leaders have condemned terrorist attacks But Perception of being under attack Colonialism Hollywood Israel Afghanistan, Iraq, Chechnya

67. Islamic Revival Internal factors Globalization – impact of Western culture Asian financial crisis Overthrow of Suharto; separatist movements State sponsored Islamic schools External factors Islamic revolution in Iran Saudi export of Wahhabi fundamentalism Afghan war against Soviets Israel Iraq, Afghanistan

68. Political Islam Muslim political agenda inspired by Islamic concerns Islamic parties with Islamic agenda Varied factors limit political Islam in SE Asia Resistance by economic elites Diversity among Islamic groups

69. Militant Islam Abu Sayyaf (Philippines) Jemaah Islamiyah (Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia) Al Qaeda support Philippines – foothold Indonesia – fertile ground Malaysia – worries Thailand – target of convenience Osama bin Laden's brother-in-law ran a network of Islamic charities in the southern Philippines; some of the money was funneled to local Muslim militants. And Ramzi Yousef planned the 1993 World Trade Center bombing from a safe house in Manila. Philippine investigators also uncovered a plot to fly a plane into CIA headquarters -- five years before the Sept. 11 attacks -- but no one took it seriously Several alleged terrorist groups have been active in Indonesia for years. One of them is the group called Jemmah Islamiyah, which is believed responsible for dozens of attacks in Indonesia in the past several years, including the bombings on the resort island of Bali in October 2002. Investigators say it's clear the group has close ties to Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda network Malaysia has not yet been a terrorist target, but authorities are worried that another Bali-style bombing could happen in their country. The group believed responsible for the Bali blasts -- Jemmah Islamiyah -- and Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda have used Malaysia extensively in the past decade as a base of operations Coupled with porous borders and an anything-goes attitude in the capital Bangkok, Thailand has been called the ultimate "country of convenience." Thai officials now concede that the presumed mastermind of the Bali bombing, Hambali, planned the attacks during a meeting in Thailand. Security has been beefed up; but some warn that Thailand's many soft targets mean an attack is inevitable, Osama bin Laden's brother-in-law ran a network of Islamic charities in the southern Philippines; some of the money was funneled to local Muslim militants. And Ramzi Yousef planned the 1993 World Trade Center bombing from a safe house in Manila. Philippine investigators also uncovered a plot to fly a plane into CIA headquarters -- five years before the Sept. 11 attacks -- but no one took it seriously Several alleged terrorist groups have been active in Indonesia for years. One of them is the group called Jemmah Islamiyah, which is believed responsible for dozens of attacks in Indonesia in the past several years, including the bombings on the resort island of Bali in October 2002. Investigators say it's clear the group has close ties to Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda network Malaysia has not yet been a terrorist target, but authorities are worried that another Bali-style bombing could happen in their country. The group believed responsible for the Bali blasts -- Jemmah Islamiyah -- and Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda have used Malaysia extensively in the past decade as a base of operations Coupled with porous borders and an anything-goes attitude in the capital Bangkok, Thailand has been called the ultimate "country of convenience." Thai officials now concede that the presumed mastermind of the Bali bombing, Hambali, planned the attacks during a meeting in Thailand. Security has been beefed up; but some warn that Thailand's many soft targets mean an attack is inevitable,

71. China “Charm Offensive” Free Trade Agreement Proposed joint military exercises US distraction

73. ASEAN Trade, 2005

74. China Trade, 2005

75. “Traditional” US Interests Stability & balance of power Prevent being excluded by another power Keep sea lanes open Trade & investment Support allies Promote democracy, rule of law, human rights & religious freedom

76. Key Interests in SE Asia? (According to google) Avian Flu China Combating terrorism

77. Recent Emphasis (2004) Top priority is war on terror Five strategic partners Philippines Thailand Japan South Korea Australia

78. USAID Indonesia $130 million (2006) Focus on Democratic governance Basic human services Basic education Economic growth Environment Also Tsunami rebuilding Support for Aceh peace accord

79. USAID Philippines $70 million (2006) Focus on Family planning & health Education Economic governance Environment & energy Also Conflict reduction in Mindano & other areas