Workshop on Manufacturing Statistics Lusaka, Zambia, 4-7 May 2009 The Study on the International Comparison of Industrial Statisticsin ASEAN Countries EAMS Secretariat (FY2008) Tomoyuki Kuroda Ph.D
Table of Contents 1About This Study FY2005 2Main Results and Future Direction 3Recommendation for Future Direction of AMEICC-WGS
1. About This Study Main Objective of This StudyFY2005 ● Collecting 4-digit level statistical data on each country’s industrial classification ● Analyzing and evaluating them, and educing problem areas and issues when making international comparisons
1. About This Study Distinctive Features of This Study ● Extending the study to cover ALL categories of ISIC-4digit industries(Section-D) ※ The previous trial study had been conducted only on three industries (textile; motor vehicles, trailers,and semi-trailers; and furniture)
1. About This Study Distinctive Features of This Study ● This study mainly concerned; ◆ Comparison of national Standard Industrial Classification applied to manufacturing industry among ASEAN countries ◆ Verification of availability and acquirement of industrial statistics based on the 4-digit classification of these countries
1. About This Study An Image of the result (4-didit Data Matrix)
2. Main Results and Future Direction This chapter includes; 1 International Comparability 2 Standard Industrial Classification (manufacturing industry) of each country 3 Summary
2-（1） International Comparability ◆ As of Feb. 2006, the 4-digit data were sent from 8 countries(Lao PDR, Philippines) ◆ Examining the data, it was found that there are differences between the Standard Industrial Classification of each countries and the classification applied to the manufacturing industry census/survey classification(referred to as MICSC)
2-（1） International Comparability Number of 4-digit categories by classification system for ASEAN countries ◆BNI and MNR are the only countries where the number of classes is the same between ISIC, SIC and MICSC. ◆On the other hand,the Majority shows a different number of classes between them. (SGP,TLD etc.)
71 ISIC-4digit 127 categories 56 40 1 30 Singapore Manufacturing Census 85 56 12 2 15 29 2-（1） International Comparability Example in Singapore ●Correspondence between ISIC (127 Classes) and Singapore’s Annual Census of Manufacturing Activities (85 Classes)
1512 Processing and preserving of fish and fish products 1541 Manufacture of bakery products 1544 Manufacture of macaroni, noodles, couscous and similar farinaceous products 1549 Manufacture of other food products n.e.c. 1810 Manufacture of wearing apparel, except fur apparel 2010 Sawmilling and planing of wood 2811 Manufacture of structural metal products 3610 Manufacture of furniture 2-（1） International Comparability ● Some countries modify(combine or divide) ISIC class(es) so as to make them feasible to the national condition. ● Therefore, only 8 classes can be compared exactly with ISIC classes throughout 8 ASEAN countries.
2-（1） International Comparability Implications of 2-(1) ● One can not make an international comparison on industrial statistics unless there is a common standard classification. Otherwise very time consuming and complicated conversion efforts are required.
2-（1） International Comparability Implications of 2-(1) ● Surely ISIC is used as the standard, but at the same time ISIC may be needed to modify for national requirements. ●There are advantages and disadvantages of adopting ISIC straightforwardly to MICSCs. The same may be true for the modified ISIC. A study on both sides is necessary in the future.
2-（2） Standard Industrial Classification of each country (manufacturing industry) Background of analysis for Standard Industrial Classification ● The current industrial statistics in the ASEAN countries are not necessarily based on a definite standard industrial classification. This may cause some inconveniences in attempting an analysis of the economic activities across the region. ● Therefore, in this section, we will focus on revealing the characteristics of the 4-digit classification as applied to manufacturing industry in the ASEAN countries.
2-（2） Standard Industrial Classification of each country (manufacturing industry) ① Countries applying ISIC straightforwardly to SICs(5 countries) ● Brunei●Cambodia●Laos ● Myanmar●Thailand These countries use ISIC (Ver.3) 4-digit classification for their Standard Industrial Classifications.
2-（2） Standard Industrial Classification of each country (manufacturing industry) ② Countries using basically ISIC but constructing their own classifications (5 countries) ● Indonesia (KBLI) • KBLI uses different names for 4 Classes. • There are 4 KBLI Classes each of which disaggregates one ISIC Class, while there are 2 KBLI Classes each of which combines two or more ISIC Classes. • There is one ISIC Class which does not correspond to KBLI. • These features are mainly observed in Division 26 (Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products).
2-（2） Standard Industrial Classification of each country (manufacturing industry) ● Malaysia (MSIC) • MSIC basically follows ISIC, and one-to-one correspondence is attained for 123 Class categories. • However there are 4 MSIC Classes of which names are different from ISIC.
2-（2） Standard Industrial Classification of each country (manufacturing industry) ● Philippine (PSIC) • PSIC uses different names for 7 Classes. • There are 24 ISIC Classes each corresponding to multiple PSIC Classes. • Two PSIC Divisions have many Classes: • ・Division 15 (Manufacture of food products and beverages) includes 36 Classes in PSIC whereas 7 Classes in ISIC • ・Division 36 (Manufacture of furniture; manufacturing n.e.c), includes 33 Classes in PSIC whereas 6 Classes in ISIC
2-（2） Standard Industrial Classification of each country (manufacturing industry) ● Singapore (SSIC) • SSIC does not include “publishing industry” in the scope of manufacturing industry. Consequently, there are as many as 5 ISIC Classes which do not exist in SSIC. • There are 15 Classes with different names, and these Classes are mainly in Division 24 (Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products) and Division 29 (Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c.) • There are 7 ISIC Classes each corresponding to multiple SSIC Classes and 19 SSIC Classes each corresponding to multiple ISIC Classes. These Classes are mainly in Division 29(Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c) .
2-（2） Standard Industrial Classification of each country (manufacturing industry) ● Vietnam (VSIC) • VSIC uses different names for 4 Classes. • There are 4 VSIC Classes each corresponding to multiple ISIC Classes and 36 ISIC Classes each corresponding to multiple VSIC Classes. • These features are mainly found in the machinery industry: • ・ Division 31(Manufacture of electrical machinery and apparatus n.e.c) includes 18 Classes in VSIC whereas 6 Classes in ISIC • ・ Division 34(Manufacture of motor vehicles; trailers and semi-trailers) includes 13 Classes in VSIC whereas 3 Classes on ISIC • ・ Division 35(Manufacture of other transport equipment) includes 12 Classes in VSIC whereas 7 Classes in ISIC • ・ Division 36 (Manufacture of furniture; manufacturing n.e.c) also includes 19 Classes in VSIC whereas 6 Classes in ISIC
2-（3） Summary ① 4 basic assumptions prior to the study and verification of the assumptions ● Assumptions 1) and 2) • All of the ASEAN countries can provide manufacturing statistics on the 3-digit or 4-digit level, even if the data are not published. • A cross-sectional comparison of the 4-digit manufacturing statistics may reveal a distribution of industries which can show, for example, a certain industry may be more important than the others in a certain country.
2-（3） Summary ● Verification of 1) and 2) • Generally speaking, Study Team was able to confirm Assumptions 1) and 2). • At present, 8 countries provided 4-digit level data, one country 3-digit data, and one country 2-digit data. As a result, we were able to confirm a data distribution as assumed. • However, underlying factors behind the distribution may differ from country to country, and this is one of the studies that we need to make in the future.
2-（3） Summary ● Assumptions 3) and 4) • 3) Data on 3-digit level may be easily re-compiled from 4-digit level data, if the latter are provided. • 4) The data submitted on 4-digit level may be based on the ISIC or national SIC (Standard Industrial Classification).
2-（3） Summary ● Verification of 3) and 4) • Assumption 3) did not turn out to be true. It was revealed that adding up 4-digit data does not necessarily yield 3-digit data. • The study team recognized the necessity of compiling the 3-digit data and to construct a correspondence table with ISIC on this level too. For this purpose, we may need further cooperation from each country.
2-（3） Summary ● Verification of 3) and 4) • Assumption 4) also was not proved true. Some countries submitted data based on the unique classifications that could be referred to as “Manufacturing Industrial Census/Survey Classification (MICSC).” • It may be necessary to study the background behind this unique classification system. We may seek collaboration from those in charge of industrial classification in each country if needed.
2-（3） Summary ● Future activities • A consistency between 4-digit data and 3-digit data is need to be checked. • ＊When considering detailed, precise and useful analyses, required are the internationally comparable manufacturing statistics on the 4-digit level. Before proceeding to this problem, a consistency between 4-digit data and 3-digit data is need to be checked.
2-（3） Summary ● Future activities • Identifying inter-relationship between ISIC, SICs and the Classifications used in manufacturing industry censuses/surveys in each country is important. • ＊The circumstances under which the countries combine/integrate ISIC can only be clarified by the officials in charge in the respective country. Thailand provided a correspondence table to show which ISIC Classes are combined to yield Thai Classes. This kind of information is sought from other countries.
Recommendation for Future Direction of AMEICC-WGS
3. Recommendation for Future Direction of AMEICC-WGS ● This last chapter includes; (1) Reconfirmation of the significance to establish manufacturing industry statistics (on the 4-digit level) in ASEAN countries (2) Significance of developing East ASIA (ASEAN+3) version of ISIC (3) Action plan for developing an East Asia version of the ISIC
3-（1） Significance of establishing the 4-digit level statistics in ASEAN countries ● Under economic progress and increasing globalization, countries are now forced to measure and evaluate the quantity, direction, and level of cross-border transport among people, goods, and services. Without detailed and comparable statistical data, it is difficult to establish appropriate and detailed industrial, economic, and social policies. ●Although used as one of the most important indicators to measure economic activity, the statistics for manufacturing industry are not prepared to support analysis in depth.
3-（2） Significance of developing East ASIA （ASEAN+3） version of ISIC ●Economic activities in the ASEAN countries are changing from “point-based” (i.e., an individual country) to “area-based” or regionally based. ●Most of ASEAN countries have set their own unique Industrial Classifications in consideration of the specific industrial structures of the countries which are not reflected on the ISIC. Therefore, we will need an Industrial Classification that reflects the characteristics of local industrial conditions and also satisfies international comparability among countries with similar industrial structures.
3-（2） Significance of developing East ASIA （ASEAN+3） version of ISIC ●Based on a similar notion, the EU has its own unique classification promoted by EURO STAT, and North America has also established its own unique classification (NAICS). ●These initiatives have originated from the recognition that the characteristics of local economies can not be adequately measured if based on single global standard classification.
3-（3） Action plan for developing an East Asia version of the ISIC ●To establish an Asian Standard Industrial Classi-fication, the statistics offices in the respective ASEAN countries need to share their knowledge and experience to ensure that the Classification reflects the specific circumstances of individual Asian countries. ● For this purpose, It is considered useful to establish an effective new venue where statistical staffs take part in to discuss the topics and create useful classification system common for ASEAN countries.
3-（3） Action plan for developing an East Asia version of the ISIC ●Assuming that the ASEAN countries will collaborate, we would propose the following action plan for developing an East Asia version of the ISIC (EAMIC). STEP 1 (FY 2005) Creation of data matrix table for 4-digit categories of manufacturing industry
3-（3） Action plan for developing an East Asia version of the ISIC STEP 2 (FY 2006) Analysis and evaluation of the data matrix table ＊We should verify, analyze and evaluate it from user’s as well as producer’s point of view. (This study has revealed the necessity of analyzing and evaluating 4digit/3-digit data.)
3-（3） Action plan for developing an East Asia version of the ISIC STEP 2 (FY 2006) ＊In order to accomplish the task, the study team will need a working group consisting of classification specialists in each ASEAN country to work together and discuss on and find for issues. This working group will be needed to set up apart from AMEICC-WGS.
3-（3） Action plan for developing an East Asia version of the ISIC Issues in STEP 2 (FY 2006) Three issues must be addressed in FY 2006 work programs. 1 Developing a correspondence table between national manufacturing industry classification and ISIC Ver.4 (on 4-digit level). • In accordance with the ASEAN Common Industrial Classification prepared by ASEAN Secretariat, a correspondence table between national manufacturing industry classification and ISIC Ver.4 (on 4-digit level) is to be developed.
3-（3） Action plan for developing an East Asia version of the ISIC 2 Starting the development of the EAST ASIA (ASEAN+3) version of ISIC for manufacturing industry (4-digit level) using the data around 2005. Although it is difficult to address this undertaking in a short period, the study team must hold an international meeting with an agenda addressing the“Developing an ASEAN version of the ISIC” to discuss the significance of classification adapting the region as a new economic zone. 3 Expanding the study area to ASEAN + 3 (It is EAMS !) When considering close economic relationship between ASEAN, China, South Korea and Japan, it is considered that expanding the statistical comparability to ASEAN+3 is necessary.