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Global and Regional Potential for Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage

This presentation explores the role of carbon capture and storage (CCS) and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) in mitigating climate change in line with the 2°C objective from COP15. It examines the future of the world energy system, technological choices, and the potential energy mix for both developed and developing countries. Using the TIAM-Fr model, projections on power generation, emissions, and the impacts of policy scenarios are discussed. The study highlights the critical need for investment in CCS and BECCS to meet carbon constraints.

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Global and Regional Potential for Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage

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  1. Global and Regionalpotential for biomassenergywithcarbon capture and storage September 19-22, 2011 Poland CaRe Tech 2011 Olivia RICCI OrleansEconomicLaboratory University of Orleans – CNRS France Sandrine SELOSSE Centre for AppliedMathematics, MINES ParisTech, Chair ParisTechModeling for sustainabledevelopment France

  2. The aim of thispresentation 2°C objective expressed since COP15 induces CO2 mitigation policies which involve transformation of the world energy system and technological choices • Evolution of the world energy system • What could be the future power mix? • Whattechnological choices? • CCS technologies as a promising option • What could be the place of CCS in the power generation? • What could be the place of BECCS in the power generation? • Developed and developing countries perspective • What global and regional potential of CCS and BECCS ?

  3. Model: TIAM-Fr, the French world version of TIMES • TIMES Integrated Assessment Model developed by ETSAP- IEA (Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program) • A technological detailed bottom-up energy system model

  4. Demand for energy services • Simplified RES • Inputs, exogenous • Extraction costs • Reserves of fossil • Potential of biomass Thousands of technologies for eachregion

  5. Model: TIAM-Fr, the French world version of TIMES • TIMES Integrated Assessment Model developed by ETSAP- IEA (Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program) • A technological detailed bottom-up energy system model • A linear programming model minimizing the total discounted cost of the system • A geographically integrated model in 15 world regions • A time horizon from 2005 to 2100 • GHG emissions and integrated climate module • CO2, CH4 and N2O • Atmospheric concentration and temperature changes • Carbon capture and sequestration technologies • Fossil and Bio-Energies CCS

  6. Specification of scenarios • COP15 – A regional scenario considering post COP15 pledges in 2020 and assuming new targets for 2050 • The lowest CO2 mitigation targets by 2020 expressed by Europe, the USA, Australia, Canada, Japan, China and India • Assumptions in 2050 representing the international convergence in terms of mitigation for these developed and fast developing countries • COP15plus – A coupled regional and global scenario in line with the consensual 2°C objective • The lowest CO2 mitigation targets by 2020 expressed by Europe, the USA, Australia, Canada, Japan, China and India • A limitation of the world CO2 emissions to 50% in 2050 by comparison with 2000

  7. Results

  8. World power generation (PJ) and mix (%) • 2020: Energy switch from fossil to nuclear and renewables in COP15+ • 2050: Deployment of renewables and CCS technologies 2020 (%) 2050 (%)

  9. World power generation by plants with CCS (PJ)

  10. Regional power generation by plants with CCS (PJ)

  11. Regional CO2sequestrated by power plants with CCS (Gt)

  12. Conclusion

  13. The technologicalprogressis a significant issue • The deployment of CCS as a response of carbon constraints • 23 % and 29% of CCS in the power mix respectively in COP15 and COP15+ scenarios • Investment in BECCS in developed and developing countries • But: feasibility of this development • Safety problem: Social acceptability and carbon leak back into the atmosphere • Commercialization limits: high costs, scale of production, time of deployment • The place of BECCS in developing countries: food competition • Further development • Investigate different pathways of incentives policy of biomass and biomass + CCS

  14. September 19-22, 2011 Poland Thankyou for your attention CaRe Tech 2011

  15. Annexes

  16. ReferenceEnergy System

  17. Specification of scenarios • COP15 • A regional scenario considering post COP15 pledges in 2020 and assuming new targets for 2050 • COP15+ • A coupled regional and global scenario in line with the consensual 2°C objective

  18. Evited CO2emissions due to the carbonconstraint

  19. World power mix (%)

  20. World CO2sequestrated by power plants with CCS (Gt)

  21. Regional power generation by plants with CCS (PJ) Industrialized countries Developing countries Fastdeveloping countries

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