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Material for assessing monetary policy 2009

Material for assessing monetary policy 2009. Figure 2.1. Difference between interbank rates and expected monetary policy (Basis spread) Basis points. Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank. Figure 2.2. Goods exports at fixed prices Index, january 1980 = 100, seasonally adjusted data.

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Material for assessing monetary policy 2009

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  1. Material for assessing monetary policy 2009

  2. Figure 2.1. Difference between interbank rates and expected monetary policy (Basis spread)Basis points Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank

  3. Figure 2.2. Goods exports at fixed pricesIndex, january 1980 = 100, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  4. Figure 2.3. New and unfilled vacant jobs and redundancy noticesThousands, seasonally adjusted data Source: Employment service Note. The broken vertical line indicates the date of publication of the MPR in February.

  5. Figure 2.4. Repo rate outcome and repo rate forecasts in 2009Per cent Source: The Riksbank Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecasts.

  6. Figure 2.5. Alternative repo rate forecastsPer cent, quarterly changes Note. The broken line refers to the Riksbank’s forecasts in the MPR February. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  7. Figure 2.6. CPIFAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The broken line refers to the Riksbank’s forecast in February.

  8. Figure 2.7. CPI Annual percentage change Note. The broken line refers to the Riksbank’s forecasts in the MPR February. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  9. Figure 2.8. Production gapPercentage deviation from the HP trend Note. The broken line refers to the Riksbank’s forecasts in the MPR February. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  10. Figure 2.9. Labour market gap (hours worked)Percentage deviation from the HP trend Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The broken line refers to the Riksbank’s forecasts in the MPR February.

  11. Figure 2.10. GDP in the United States and the euro areaQuarterly change in per cent calculated as an annual rate, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat and the Riksbank

  12. Figure 2.11. Consumer pricesAnnual percentage change Sources: The Bureau of Labor Statistics and Eurostat

  13. Figure 2.12. Volume of world trade (World trade monitor index)Index, year 2000 = 100, seasonally adjusted data Source: Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

  14. Figure 2.13. GDP in SwedenAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Striped bars represent the Riksbank’s forecast in the MPR in July.

  15. Figure 2.14. Alternative repo rate forecastsPer cent, quarterly averages Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The broken line refers to the Riksbank’s forecasts in the MPR July.

  16. Figure 2.15 CPIFAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The broken line refers to the Riksbank’s forecasts in the MPR July.

  17. Figure 2.16. CPIAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The broken line refers to the Riksbank’s forecast in July.

  18. Figure 2.17. Production gapPercentage deviation from the HP trend Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The broken line refers to the Riksbank’s forecast in July.

  19. Figure 2.18. Labour market gap (hours worked)Percentage deviation from the HP trend Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The broken line refers to the Riksbank’s forecasts in the MPR July.

  20. Figure 2.19. GDP in the world Annual percentage change Sources: The IMF and the Riksbank Note. Striped bars refer to the Riksbank’s forecast in MPR October.

  21. Figure 2.20. CPI and CPIFAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The broken line refers to the Riksbank’s forecast in MPR October.

  22. Figure 2.21. Alternative repo rate pathsPer cent, quarterly changes Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank The broken line refers to the Riksbank’s forecasts in MPR October.

  23. Figure 2.22. CPIFAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The broken line refers to the Riksbank’s forecasts in MPR October.

  24. Figure 2.23. CPIAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The broken line refers to the Riksbank’s forecast in MPR October.

  25. Figure 2.24. Production gapPercentage deviation from the HP trend Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The broken line refers to the Riksbank’s forecasts in MPR October.

  26. Figure 2.25. Labour market gap (hours worked)Percentage deviation from the HP trend Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The broken line refers to the Riksbank’s forecasts in MPR October.

  27. Figure 3.1. CPI, CPIF and CPIF excluding energyAnnual percentage change Source: Statistics Sweden

  28. Figure 3.2. All participants’ average inflation expectations (CPI) in 2009 1, 2 and 5 years aheadAnnual percentage change Source: TNS SIFO Prospera

  29. Figure 3.3. All participants' inflation expectations 5 years ahead Per cent Source: TNS SIFO Prospera

  30. Figure 3.4. The Riksbank's inflation forecasts and average inflation expectations two years ahead (CPI) among money market participants in 2009Annual percentage change Sources: TNS SIFO Prospera and the Riksbank

  31. Figure 3.5 GDPQuarterly change in per cent calculated as an annual rate, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  32. Figure 3.6. UnemploymentPercentage of the labour force, seasonally-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Pre-1993 data has been spliced by the Riksbank.

  33. Figure 3.7. Estimated gapPercentage deviation from the HP trend Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  34. Figure 3.8. CPI, outcomes and forecasts Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  35. Figure 3.9. GDP, outcomes and forecasts Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  36. Figure 3.10. CPIF, outcomes and forecasts Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  37. Figure 3.11. Forecasts of CPI inflation 2009 Per cent, annual average Sources: National Institute of Economic Research, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  38. Figure 3.12. Forecasts for GDP growth 2009 Per cent, annual average Sources: National Institute of Economic Research, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  39. Figure 3.13. CPIF: Forecasting errors and the effects of unexpected shocksAnnual percentage change Source: The Riksbank

  40. Figure 3.14. GDP growth: Forecasting errors and the effects of unexpected shocks Annual percentage change Source: The Riksbank

  41. Figure 4.1. Forecasting errors for the CPI of various forecasters 2009Average error and adjusted absolute average error, percentage points Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and the Riksbank Note. LO=Swedish Trade Union Confederation, FiD=Ministry of Finance, SWE=Swedbank, SN=Confederation of Swedish Enterprise, NO= Nordea, KI=National Institute of Economic Research, SHB=Svenska Handelsbanken, RB=Riksbank and HUI=Swedish Retail Institute.

  42. Figure 4.2. Forecasting errors for GDP growth of various forecasters 2009Average error and adjusted absolute average error, percentage points Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and the Riksbank

  43. Figure 4.3. Forecasting errors for unemployment of various forecasters 2009Average error and adjusted absolute average error, percentage points Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and the Riksbank.

  44. Figure 4.4. Forecasting errors for the repo rate of various forecasters 2009Average error and adjusted absolute average error, percentage points Note. FiD=Ministry of Finance, Swed=Swedbank, KI=National Institute of Economic Research och RB=Riksbank Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and the Riksbank

  45. Figure 4.5. Accuracy of the forecasts for CPI of various forecasters 1999-2009 Adjusted absolute average error and average error in percentage points Note. KI=National Institute of Economic Research, FiD=Ministry of Finance and RB=Riksbank. Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and the Riksbank

  46. Figure 4.6. Accuracy of the forecasts for GDP growth of various forecasters 1999-2009 Adjusted absolute average error and average error in percentage points Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and the Riksbank.

  47. Figure 4.7. Accuracy of the forecasts for unemployment of various forecasters 1999-2009 Adjusted absolute average error and average error in percentage points Sources: National Institute of Economic Research and the Riksbank.

  48. Figure 4.8. Accuracy of the forecasts for the repo rate of various forecasters 2007-2009 Adjusted absolute average error and average error in percentage points Sources: National Institute of Economic Research, Ministry of Finance, SEB, Swedbank and the Riksbank

  49. Figure 5.1. Change in the repo rate and market surprise Basis points Source: The Riksbank

  50. Figure 5.2. Deviation of market expectations from the Riksbank’s repo rate forecasts, before and after publication during 2007Basis points Sources: Reuters EcoWin and the Riksbank

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