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Material for assessing monetary policy - 2005-2007

Material for assessing monetary policy - 2005-2007. 18 February 2008. Figure 1. GDP for the United States, euro area and the world Annual percentage change. Sources: Eurostat, IMF and US Department of Commerce.

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Material for assessing monetary policy - 2005-2007

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  1. Material for assessing monetary policy- 2005-2007 18 February 2008

  2. Figure 1. GDP for the United States, euro area and the worldAnnual percentage change Sources: Eurostat, IMF and US Department of Commerce

  3. Diagram 2. CPI-inflation in the United States, Euro area and the worldAnnual percentage change Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat and IMF Note. HICP in euro area.

  4. Figure 3. Policy ratesPer cent Sources: Bank of England, ECB and the Federal Open Market Committee

  5. Figure 4. The difference between interbank rates and government bond rates in 2007Percentage points Source: the Riksbanken

  6. Figure 5. GDP for SwedenAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  7. Figure 6. Labour force and employmentThousands, seasonally adjusted Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  8. Figure 7. Labour productivity for the economy as a wholeAnnual percentage change, seasonal adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. Trend calcualted using the Hodrick-Prescott filter.

  9. Figure 8. Unit labour costs for the economy as a wholeAnnual percentage change, seasonally adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  10. Figure 9. CPI, CPIX and CPIX excluding energyAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  11. Figure 10. House prices and total lending to Swedish householdsAnnual percentage change Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  12. Figure 11. CPI and CPIX inflationAnnual percentage change Source: Statistics Sweden

  13. Figure 12. Energy prices in the CPI adjusted for direct effects of changes in indirect taxes Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. In parentheses the wheights in CPI are stated.

  14. Figure 13. CPIX excluding energy divided into goods, services and foodAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank Note. The weights in CPIX are stated in the parentheses

  15. Figure 14. Different agents' expectations of inflation for 2009 in 2007Per cent Source: Prospera Research AB

  16. Figure 15. Inflation and households' inflation expectations 12 month aheadAnnual percentage change Note. The expectations are advanced 12 month to match the CPI outcome to which they refer. Sources: NIER and the Riksbank

  17. Figure 16. Employment, labour force and open unemploymentAnnual percentage change and per cent of labour force, seasonal adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  18. Figure 17. Productivityscenario, CPIX calculated with long term productivity growth compared to outcome of CPIXAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  19. Figure 18. Productivityscenario, growth in GDP calculated with long term productivity growth compared to outcome for growth in GDP Annual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  20. Table 1. Inflation outcome 2005, 2006 and 2007Annual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  21. Figure 19. CPI forecastsAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  22. Figure 20. CPIX forecastsAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  23. Figure 21. GDP forecastsAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  24. Figure 22. Forecasts of number of employedAnnual percentage change Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  25. Figure 23. Forecasts for the inflation (CPI) 2007, made at different points in timeAnnual average Sources: Consensus Economics Inc, the Ministry of Finance, the Swedish Trade Union, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  26. Figure 24. Ranking of CPI forecasts, 50%Per cent Sources: Consensus Economics Inc, the Ministry of Finance, the Swedish Trade Union, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  27. Figure 25. Ranking of CPI forecasts, 25%Per cent Sources: Consensus Economics Inc, the Ministry of Finance, the Swedish Trade Union, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  28. Figure 26. Forecasts for GDP 2006 made at different points in timeAnnual average Sources: Consensus Economics Inc, the Ministry of Finance, the Swedish Trade Union, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  29. Figure 27. Forecasts for GDP 2007 made at different points in timeAnnual average Sources: Consensus Economics Inc, the Ministry of Finance, the Swedish Trade Union, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  30. Table 2. Inflation forecasts in 2005, 2006 and 2007Annual average Note. 112-month rate The forecast figures in the grey-coloured fields are the main scenarios in the reports IR05:1, IR05:2 which are based on the assumption that the repo rate remains unchanged during the forecast period. The forecast figures in the white-coloured fields for IR05:1 and IR05:2 are based on the assumption that the repo rate develops in line with a 15-day average of the so-called implied forward rates. The forecast figures from IR05:3, IR05:4, IR06:1, IR06:2 and IR06:3 are based on the assumption that the repo rate develops in line with a 15-day average of the so-called implied forward rates; this was the main scenario in these reports. The forecast figures from MPR07:1, MPR07:2, MPR07:3 and MPU are based on the assumption that the repo rate develops in line with the Riksbank’s repo rate forecast which was presented in the respective reports. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

  31. Figure 28. Repo rate outcome and implied forward rates 2005Per cent Source: The Riksbank

  32. Figure 29. Repo rate outcome and implied forward rates 2006Per cent Source: The Riksbank

  33. Figure 30. Repo rate forecasts at different times 2007Per cent Source: The Riksbank

  34. Figure 31. Repo rate outcome, repo rate forecasts and implied forward rates at some points in timePer cent Source: The Riksbank

  35. Table 3. Outcomes and forecasts made for different variables during 2005, 2006 and 2007Annual average unless otherwise stated Note. 112-month rate, 2)in the business sector, 3)the whole of the OECD, 4per cent of labour force. The forecast figures in the grey-coloured fields are the main scenarios in the reports IR05:1, IR05:2 which are based on the assumption that the repo rate remains unchanged during the forecast period. The forecast figures in the white-coloured fields for IR05:1 and IR05:2 are based on the assumption that the repo rate develops in line with a 15-day average of the so-called implied forward rates. The forecast figures from IR05:3, IR05:4, IR06:1, IR06:2 and IR06:3 are based on the assumption that the repo rate develops in line with a 15-day average of the so-called implied forward rates; this was the main scenario in these reports. The forecast figures from MPR07:1, MPR07:2, MPR07:3 and MPU are based on the assumption that the repo rate develops in line with the Riksbank’s repo rate forecast which was presented in the respective reports. Sources: OECD, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

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