1 / 14

European Demographic Perspectives Brief overview of recent Eurostat’s population projections

European Demographic Perspectives Brief overview of recent Eurostat’s population projections Michail SKALIOTIS Eurostat Unit F-1: Demographic and Migration Statistics. The EU population is likely to decline… Projected total population, Trend scenario variants, EU-25, 2004-2051.

liluye
Télécharger la présentation

European Demographic Perspectives Brief overview of recent Eurostat’s population projections

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. European Demographic Perspectives Brief overview of recent Eurostat’s population projections Michail SKALIOTIS Eurostat Unit F-1: Demographic and Migration Statistics Meeting of the European Ideas Network (EP)

  2. The EU population is likely to decline…Projected total population, Trend scenario variants, EU-25, 2004-2051. Meeting of the European Ideas Network (EP)

  3. … but will certainly ageProjected old age dependency ratio, Trend scenario variants, EU-25, 2004-2051. Meeting of the European Ideas Network (EP)

  4. The proportion of the old and oldest-old in the population is expected to increase Meeting of the European Ideas Network (EP)

  5. … not only due to assumptions for increase of life expectancy 2004 – 2050: 60% of the increase of the proportion of the 65+ compared to baseline assumptions is due to the existing population structure Meeting of the European Ideas Network (EP)

  6. Similarly OADR is assumed to increase due to existing population dynamics Meeting of the European Ideas Network (EP)

  7. A view in the far future Meeting of the European Ideas Network (EP)

  8. Projected old age dependency ratio by Member State and Acceding Countries for selected years, baseline variant of EUROPOP2004 Meeting of the European Ideas Network (EP)

  9. Total age dependency ratio EU25, 2004-2050(0-14)+ (65+) / (15-64) Meeting of the European Ideas Network (EP)

  10. Migration alone will not ensure EU population growthCumulated values over the whole projections period of natural change and net migration, Trend scenario variants, EU-25, 2004-2050. Meeting of the European Ideas Network (EP)

  11. Sensitivity: fertility (EU25) Meeting of the European Ideas Network (EP)

  12. …and if the definition of old age dependency ratio changes ?(65+)/(15-64) vs (68+)/(15-67) Meeting of the European Ideas Network (EP)

  13. Current research, debate and initiatives regarding policy measures in an ageing society • Uncertainty regarding future levels of fertility and life expectancy • Important policy measures for fertility • Analysis of fertility trends in a life course perspective • Long run sustainability of public finances • European Commission “Confronting demographic change: a new solidarity between the generations” (and follow up internal orientation debate) • Lisbon strategy linked to demographic developments • … Meeting of the European Ideas Network (EP)

  14. Final observations / Discussion • Europe will age (unavoidable); immigration alone cannot address population ageing • In order to sustain future costs of dependency, a comprehensive set of measures should be adopted today • There is a serious paradox in trying to communicate to the EU society problems regarding ‘future shortages in the labour force’, while--today--Europe is experiencing high youth unemployment • Living longer and healthier: Working longer? • Policy measures should be robust enough to cope with demographic uncertainty Meeting of the European Ideas Network (EP)

More Related